NOPA updated their US monthly crush and the report was seen bullish soybeans, neutral to slightly negative SBO and bullish SBM. Based on this report, we still like owning soybean oil over soybean meal.
US November 2020 crush was a record for the month and ranked third for all-time at 181.018 million bushels, 1 million above an average trade guess, 4.2 million below October and 16.1 million above November 2019.
For November, the crush was also all-time record on a per day basis at 6.03 million bushels, down from 5.98 bushels per day in October (previous record) and up from 5.50 million in November 2019.
US end of November US soybean oil stocks were reported at 1.558 billion pounds, 10 million above a Reuters trade guess, above 1.487 billion previous month and compares to 1.448 billion a year ago.
US NOPA soybean meal exports were a large 1.082 million short tons, below our working estimate of 869,000 short tons, and highest since March 2017.
Terry Reilly
Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds
Futures International
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Crush-est-FI121520.pdf