7/17/22 @ 6pm CT
Although we look for crop conditions to improve for corn and spring wheat from good rains that fell through Sunday across their respected growing areas, hot and drier conditions slated for the next seven days may support futures this week, especially after the steep declines in grain futures last week. Chicago wheat could see technical buying Sunday night, along with corn. Soybean complex could be mixed with a higher bias for soybeans and meal amid last half US June weather forecast.
It was extremely hot and dry across the US western states. Some ranchers are sending more cattle to market as a result. The Sunday weather outlook has not changed much from Friday. US Great Plains and far WCB will see restricted rains and hot temperatures. Note EU weather improves over the next two weeks.
Without considering lower WTI and Brent energy markets, soybean oil futures, which rallied against meal on Friday, could see a reversal, at least in oil share, Sunday night. two bearish developments emerged over the weekend for soybean oil. Indonesia on Saturday announced they will remove all palm export levies until August 31 and set the max palm oil export tax of $240/ton from September 1 when the reference price is above $1,500 per ton. While rumored, it’s now fact, and the palm reference price mentioned above is well above physical prices. Russia raised their export quotas on sunflower oil effective through August 31. Russian export quotas have been raised by 400,000 tons for sunflower oil (previously total 1.5 million tons) and 150,000 tons for sunflower meal (previous total 0.7 million tons).
Egypt is in for wheat on Tuesday for September 16-30, October 16-31, and November 1-15 shipment. Remember in their last import tender Egypt bought a large amount of wheat, but when spread out over a three month shipping period volumes on a monthly adjusted basis were lighter than other regular tenders.
Calls:
Soybeans 10-15 higher
Soybean meal $2.00-3.50 higher
Soybean oil steady to 30 higher
Corn 5-10 higher
Chicago wheat 3-6 higher
KC wheat 5-8 higher
MN wheat 7-11 higher
Source: World Weather Inc.
Source: World Weather Inc.
Terry Reilly
Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds
Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.
Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181
W: 312.604.1366
ICE IM: treilly1
Skype: fi.treilly
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