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NOPA’s November crush of 179.5 million bushels came in below expectations and on a daily rate averaged 5.98 million bushes/day, second largest daily rate in recorded history for any month (behind November 2020 of 6.03 mil bu/day and a hair above October 2020). At 179.5 million bushels for the month, it was the seventh largest crush in our working history and 2.2 million below trade expectations. NOPA reported a much lower than expected US soybean oil yield of 11.76 pounds per bushel, below 11.89 pounds during October, and that resulted in US soybean oil stocks falling below trade expectations to 1.832 billion pounds, 71 million below trade expectations. Soybean oil stocks increased across the Midwest and northwestern Corn Belt and decreased in all other regions. Soybean oil production was still a large 2.110 billion pounds, below the record 2.187 billion posted last month. The meal yield came in at 46.83, above 46.62 month earlier and above 47.31 for November 2020. Despite the increase in the soybean meal yield from the previous month, soybean meal production fell slightly from October to 4.202 million short tons and compares to 4.262 million produced during November 2020.
We are using 11.72 pounds per bushels for the US soybean oil yield for the crop year, below USDA’s 11.75 and compares to 11.73 during 2020-21.
Terry Reilly
Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds
Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.
Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181
W: 312.604.1366
ICE IM: treilly1
Skype: fi.treilly
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Crush-est-FI121521.pdf