PDF attached
Unexpected downtime in the western Corn Belt during the month of January had a larger impact on crush rates than we expected with at least two plants experiencing problems. Daily adjusted the US crush came in at 5.88 million bushels per day, below 6.01 million during the month of December and lowest since September 2021. The January NOPA crush of 182.2 million bushels was the second largest for any January, behind 184.7 million year ago. Compared to a year ago, crush for the far northwestern Corn Belt/upper Great Plains, Iowa, and Southeast fell from January 2021.
Soybean oil stocks of 2.026 were 36 million pounds below trade expectation and down slightly from December. For the month of January, soybean oil stocks are highest since 2013 (IA stocks highest since April 2020). Implied US domestic use for soybean oil was better than expected. This comes after the crush was reported below expectations and the January oil yield of 11.81 climbed from 11.75 pounds per bushel reported in December 2021. The yield is a record for the month of January but ranks 14th highest for any month going back to 2002. Note the highest recorded monthly NOPA yield was 11.94 for March 2013.
NOPA’s implied domestic use for soybean oil is near record and highest since July 2020. January soybean oil production of 2.151 billion pounds was down a small amount from 2.192 billion during December. The US soybean meal yield increased to 46.88 from 46.74 during December and compared to 47.43 January 2021.
We will consider lowering out 2021-22 US soybean estimate if February crush rates fail to rebound from January. Currently we stand at 2.215 billion, same as USDA.
Terry Reilly
Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds
Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.
Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181
W: 312.604.1366
ICE IM: treilly1
Skype: fi.treilly
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Crush-est-FI021522.pdf