PDF attached
EIA weekly ethanol update
· The US weekly EIA ethanol data was viewed slightly bullish for US corn futures.
· Weekly US ethanol production increased 15,000 barrels from the previous week to 1024 thousand barrels per day (bbl), second consecutive weekly increase. 1024 thousand is highest in a month.
· Ethanol stocks increased 24,000 barrels to 25.507 million, also highest in a month.
· For comparison, A Bloomberg poll looked for weekly US ethanol production to increase 1,000 barrels from the previous week and stocks to increase 135,000 barrels.
· US ethanol production of 1024 thousand barrels per day is about 55% above from about the same time a year ago.
· Over the past 4 weeks, production changes averaged down 3,000 and stock changes up 258,000.
· Early September 2021 to date (25 weeks) US ethanol production is running 10.5% above the same period a year ago and 0.2% below same period for 2019-20.
· Padd2 production was 966,000 barrels, up 17,000 from a week earlier. Padd1 was unchanged from the previous week.
· There were no ethanol imports reported this week.
· Ethanol stocks of 25.507 million barrels are up 11.9% from a year ago and 1.3% below the last previous 4-week average. The record for ethanol stocks was 27.689 million barrels set on 4/17/20, but today’s inventories are still considered high.
· Days of inventory of 24.9 compares to 22.8 a month ago and 36.9 during comparable period a year ago.
· Weekly ending stocks of total gasoline were down 0.582 million barrels to 246.5 million barrels.
· The net blender input of fuel ethanol was up 36,000 from the previous week at 871,000 bpd, above its 4-week average of 817,000 bpd.
· Net production of finished reformulated and conventional motor gasoline with ethanol, increased 352,000 to 8.603 million barrels, or 81.4 percent of the net production of all finished motor gasoline (down from 92.7 percent for the previous week).
· For 2021-22, we are using 5.325 billion bushels, same as USDA. 2022-23 outlook forum looks for corn use to increase to 5.400 billion.
US DoE Crude Oil Inventories (W/W) 18-Feb: 4514K (est 0K; prev -1332K)
– Distillate Inventories: -584K (est -1700K; prev -1552K)
– Cushing OK Crude Inventories: -2049K (prev -1900K)
– Gasoline Inventories: -582K (est -1500K; prev -1332K)
– Crude Refinery Utilization: 2.10% (est -0.4%; prev -2.9%)
Terry Reilly
Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds
Futures International
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Weekly_EIA_Ethanol_Data-FI022422.pdf