FI US Ethanol Snapshot 07/20/22

PDF attached

 

EIA weekly ethanol update

·         The US weekly EIA ethanol data was viewed positive for US corn futures and neutral for US ethanol futures.

·         Weekly US ethanol production increased 29,000 barrels from the previous week to 1034 thousand barrels per day (bbl). This was the first increase in five weeks and largest weekly increase since the week ending May 27, 2022.

·         Ethanol stocks decreased 53,000 barrels to 22.553 million. 

·         For comparison, A Bloomberg poll looked for weekly US ethanol production to increase 9,000 barrels from the previous week and stocks to decrease 99,000 barrels.

·         US ethanol production of 1034 thousand barrels per day is about 0.6% above from about the same time a year ago, but 2% below a month ago.

·         Over the past 4 weeks, production changes averaged down 5,000 and stocks up 13,000. 

·         Early September 2021 to date (nearly 46 weeks) US ethanol production is running 6.8% above the same period a year ago.

·         Padd2 production was 973,000 barrels, up 29,000 from a week earlier. Padd1 was down 1,000 and Padd3 up 3,000.

·         There were no ethanol imports reported this week.

·         Ethanol stocks of 23.553 million barrels are up 4.6% from a year ago and 3.5% above the last previous 4-week average.  The record for ethanol stocks was 24.281 million barrels set on 3/9/18.

·         Days of inventory of 22.8 compares to 22.0 a month ago and 20.6 during comparable period a year ago.

·         Weekly ending stocks of total gasoline were up 3.5 million barrels to 228.4 million barrels, highest since April 29.

·         Gasoline product supplied (demand) was 8.521 million barrels, up 459,000 barrels from the previous week. US gasoline demand over the previous four week was down around 8 percent from a year earlier.

·         The net blender input of fuel ethanol was unchanged from the previous week at 887,000 bpd, below its 4-week average of 901,000 bpd, and well down the pre-pandemic levels (July 2019 average 945,000 bpd).

·         Net production of finished reformulated and conventional motor gasoline with ethanol, decreased 26,000 to 8.688 million barrels, and the ethanol blend was 91.1 percent of the net production of all finished motor gasoline, up from 90.3 percent for the previous week.

·         Our US 2021‐22 corn for ethanol use is unchanged at 5.411 billion bushels. USDA is at 5.375. For 2022‐23, we look for 5.400 billion bushels, 25 above USDA.

 

US DoE Crude Oil Inventories (W/W) 15-Jul: -0.445M (est +2.000M; prev +3.254M)

– Distillate Inventories: -1.295M (est +1.600M; prev +2.668M)

– Cushing OK Crude: +1.143M (prev +0.316M)

– Gasoline Inventories: +3.498M (est +1.000M; prev +5.825M)

– Refinery Utilization: -1.2% (est 0.5%; prev 0.4%)

EIA: US Crude Stocks In SPR Fell In Latest Week To Lowest Since July 1985