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EIA reported US ethanol production fell barrels per day to 901,000 barrels, lowest level since February 26, 2021. Stocks fell 342,000 barrels to 22.501 million, lowest since late December 2021. Ethanol production over the last 14 days is running nearly unchanged from the same period year ago, but compared with FH September 2019, pre-pandemic, output is off 8 percent. US gasoline stocks increased 1.57 million barrels to 214.6 million and implied gasoline demand decreased 172,000 barrels from the previous week to 8.322 million barrels. To put US gasoline demand in perspective, the previous 4-week average is running 11 percent below the comparable period in pre-pandemic 2019. Refinery and blender net input of oxygenates fuel was 879,000 barrels, lowest since early April 2022, down 15,000 from the previous week, and compares to previous 4-week average of 906,000 barrels. Ethanol blended into finished motor gasoline was 8.64 million barrels, or 88.2% rate (down from 91.4% previous week). We look for 2022-23 US corn for ethanol use to total 5.300 billion bushels, 25 million below USDA and compares to our working estimate of 5.317 billion for 2021-22 (USDA @ 5.330 billion).
US DoE Crude Oil Inventories (W/W) 16-Sep: +1.141M (est +2.200M; prev +2.442M)
– Distillate: +1.230M (est -50K; prev +4.219M)
– Cushing: +343K (prev -135K)
– Gasoline: +1.570M (est -450K; prev -1.768M)
– Refinery: 2.10% (est 0.05%; prev +0.60%)
Terry Reilly
Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds
Futures International
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Weekly_EIA_Ethanol_Data-FI092122.pdf