PDF attached
EIA reported weekly ethanol production up a large 30,000 barrels per day to 1.041 million and stocks up 1.531 million barrels to 22.829 million. We like watching the 4-week average change, which is up 2,000 barrels for production and up 135,000 barrels for stocks. Back to the weekly changes, for comparison, a Bloomberg poll looked for weekly US ethanol production to be up 11,000 thousand and stocks up 6,000 barrels to 21.304 million. Early September to November 18 US ethanol production is still running 4.8% below same period year ago and 1.9% below pre pandemic 2019. US gasoline stocks rose for the second consecutive week, by 3.058 million barrels to 211 million and demand for gasoline dropped 415,000 barrels to 8.327 million barrels. US gasoline demand is down about 10 percent from this time year ago. We left corn for ethanol use unchanged, currently 25 million bushels below USDA’s 2022-23 estimate.
US DoE Crude Oil Inventories (W/W) 18-Nov: -3.691M (est -2.614M; prev -5.400M)
– Distillate: +1.718M (est +650K; prev +1.120M)
– Cushing: (prev -1.624M)
– Gasoline: +3.058M (est +1.150M; prev +2.207M)
– Refinery Utilization: +1.0% (est 0.35%; prev +0.8%)
RFA’s daily email update has several articles circulating around on higher US ethanol blending. This is not new as it was reported earlier this week, but several media outlets are analyzing the potential impact. Below is a recap from one article.
Energy and ag groups seek permanent year-round E15 fix
Terry Reilly
Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds
Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.
Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181
W: 312.604.1366
ICE IM: treilly1
Skype: fi.treilly
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Weekly_EIA_Ethanol_Data-FI112322.pdf