PDF attached
EIA weekly ethanol update
· The US weekly EIA ethanol data was viewed neutral to slightly bullish for US corn futures.
· Weekly US ethanol production decreased 32,000 barrels from the previous week to 1.029 million barrels per day (bbl), second consecutive weekly decline.
· Ethanol stocks decreased 342,000 barrels to 24.067 million, snapping a 4 consecutive week of a build.
· For comparison, A Bloomberg poll looked for weekly US ethanol production to decrease 20,000 barrels from the previous week and stocks to decrease 4,000 barrels.
· US ethanol production of 1.029 million barrels per day is about 2.1% below from about the same time a year ago.
· Over the past 4 weeks, production changes averaged down 3,000 and stock changes up 310,000.
· Early September 2022 to date (15 weeks) US ethanol production is running 4.0% below the same period a year ago. At this time last year ethanol production was advancing 8.6% above the Sep 1, 2021-Dec 17, 2021 period.
· Padd2 production was 975,000 barrels, down 26,000 from a week earlier. Padd1 was unchanged and Padd3 off 5,000.
· There were no ethanol imports reported this week.
· Ethanol stocks of 24.067 million barrels are up about 16.2% from a year ago and 4.9% above the last previous 4-week average. The record for ethanol stocks was 27.689 million barrels set on 4/17/20, but today’s inventories are still considered high.
· Days of inventory of 23.7 compares to 20.5 a month ago and 19.9 during comparable period a year ago.
· Weekly ending stocks of total gasoline were up 2.53 million barrels to 226.1 million barrels. Implied gasoline demand was up 459,000 barrels to 8.714 million barrels.
· The net blender input of fuel ethanol was down 3,000 from the previous week at 876,000 bpd, same as its previous 4-week average of 876,000 bpd.
· Net production of finished reformulated and conventional motor gasoline with ethanol, decreased 2,000 to 8.612 million barrels, or 90.5 percent of the net production of all finished motor gasoline, down from 91.1 percent for the previous week.
· For 2022-23, we are using 5.250 billion bushels, compared to 5.275 billion by USDA and compares to 5.326 billion for 2021-22.
US DoE Crude Oil Inventories (W/W) 16-Dec: -5.895M (est +2.500M; prev +10.231M)
– Distillate: -242K (est +1.500M; prev +1.364M)
– Cushing: +853K (prev +426K)
– Gasoline: +2.530M (est +2.000M; prev +4.496M)
– Refinery Utilization: -1.3% (est 0.0%; prev -3.3%)
Terry Reilly
Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds
Futures International
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Weekly_EIA_Ethanol_Data-FI122122.pdf