From: research
Sent: Thursday, April 02, 2020 7:07:31 AM (UTC-06:00) Central Time (US & Canada)
To: research
Subject: Daily Market Report – April 2, 2020
Both the ECMWF Ensemble and GFS Ensemble are in general agreement for the next 15 days, after the GFS Ensemble trended cooler in the 6-10 day period.
The EIA will report the storage activity for week ending March 27th this morning. We are expecting a 26 Bcf storage draw, but we expect some downside risk to that number. We believe the pipeline scrapes are not completely picking up drop in gas consumption from industrial and power just yet. Today’s number will be quite telling as to what the impact of COVID-19 is to natural gas consumption.
Our regional break-down is East -11.8, Midwest -21.2, Mountain -4.7, SC +8.0, and Pacific +3.5.
The current Bloomberg Survey is +27.
Fundamentals:
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 90.5 Bcf/d this morning. Yesterday, we saw a big dip in production which looks to be related to incorrect nomination that usually occur at the beginning of the month. Today’s production level still seems low. We expect it to move higher throughout the week.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 80.3 Bcf today, +0.92 Bcf higher than yesterday and +0.89 Bcf higher than the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 26.4 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 24.9 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 9.2 Bcf/d today. This is the 14th day in a row that total LNG deliveries are above 9 Bcf/d.
Mexican exports are 5.7 Bcf/d. Canadian imports dropped to 4.2 Bcf/d.
Bloomberg IM: Het Shah
enelyst DM: @het.co
Tel: 917-975-2960
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Apr-2-2020.pdf