FW: FI Evening Grain Comments 02/24/20

PDF attached

 

Global
markets were turbulent as COVID-19 was reported to emerge in clusters outside of China.   Nearly 79,500 infected and more than 2,600 deaths have been confirmed.  The agriculture markets did not roll over as hard as energy or equities.  CH corn failed to trade
at $3.80, a first since late January. 

 

Weather

 

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS: 

South
America weather remains favorable, but there may be a few more concerns today over net drying in Argentina and a wet bias from center south through center west Brazil during the next couple of weeks. No serious weather anomalies are expected in this week,
but rain will be needed in Argentina and far southern Brazil during March.

            Southeast
Asia weather is quite varied. World Weather, Inc. anticipates an erratic shower and thunderstorm pattern in March supporting early season moisture boosting.

           
Winter grain and oilseed crops will remain favorably rated and poised for improvement in the spring in China and southeastern Europe. India’s winter crops are expected to perform well this year because of greater than usual rainfall.

           
South Africa will get some timely rainfall along with parts of Australia to maintain a favorable outlook. With that said, eastern Australia production has not improved much, but some sorghum has received supplemental rainfall recently.

            Overall,
weather today will likely produce a neutral to slightly bullish bias.

 

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR WHEAT: 

There
is still not much risk to winter wheat from adverse weather for a while. Frost and freezes in the southeastern United States likely burned back some new vegetative development, but no permanent harm likely came to the region’s crops. Some additional moisture
will fall early this week in the central U.S. Plains, although amounts will be light in same areas that have been drier biased for a while, including western Kansas, eastern Colorado and neighboring areas.

           
Russia crops are going to come into spring favorably moist except in the far south where greater rain will be needed. Kazakhstan will also need greater rain in the spring while Ukraine already has enough moisture to induce some improvement just as soon as
seasonal warming arrives.

            North
Africa’s outlook has not changed for Morocco, but there is a little more rain slated for Tunisia and northeastern Algeria over the next two weeks. No general soaking of rain is expected, but any showers would be welcome.

           
Australia’s winter small grains will not be planted prior to late April which leaves plenty of time for improved weather and soil conditions.

            India’s
wetter outlook over the next two weeks will further ensure a significantly large-sized winter crop.

            France
and Spain need to warm up along with Italy to support spring planting and to stimulate early season crop development when weather conditions improve.

           
Overall, weather today will likely maintain a neutral environment for wheat trading.

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

MONDAY,
FEB. 24:

• USDA
  weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Ivory
  Coast cocoa arrivals
• U.S.
  poultry slaughter; cold storage – pork, beef, poultry, 3pm
• Malaysian
  Palm Oil Council Online POINTERS seminar

TUESDAY,
FEB. 25:

• AmSpec,
  Intertek, SGS palm oil export data for Feb. 1-25

WEDNESDAY,
FEB. 26:

• EIA
  U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am (26 feb 2100)

THURSDAY,
FEB. 27:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, 8:30am
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• International
  Grains Council monthly market report

FRIDAY,
FEB. 28:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report on coffee, cocoa, sugar positions ~1:30pm (~6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• U.S.
  agricultural prices paid, received, 3pm
• AmSpec,
  Intertek, SGS palm oil export data for Feb. 1-28
• EARNINGS:
  Olam, Golden Agri, Sime Darby

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

USDA
inspections versus Reuters trade range                                            

Wheat      
411,523     versus  350000-600000           range

Corn         
912,922     versus  600000-950000           range

Soybeans  
594,536     versus  600000-1100000         range

 

 

 

 

Macros

・        
China’s National Health Commission Official: Situation In Wuhan Still Grim And Complex With New Confirmed Cases Appearing – RTRS

・        
China’s National Health Commission Official: China Has Stopped Rapid Rise Of Infection Cases In Wuhan But Hasn’t Stopped The Epidemic Yet

・        
Canadian Wholesale Trade Sales (M/M) Dec: 0.9% (exp 0.4%; R prev -1.1%)

 

Corn.

・        
May corn fell to a contract low on Monday.
Corn
futures slipped for its fourth consecutive session following widespread commodity selling.  Southern Brazil will see welcome rain through the end of the month before shifting north during the first week of March.  May corn fell 4.25 cents to $3.7650.

・        
Today we saw end users take advantage of the price drops with commercials buying corn and soybean meal. 

・        
Crude oil was down nearly $2.00/barrel as of 1:30 CT.   CBOT ethanol futures were down 2.8 percent last week. 

・        
June options available today in Corn, Beans, Chi and KC Wheat.

・        
CH traded below $3.80 all day.  Prior to Monday it traded at the level since January 27. 

・        
USDA US corn export inspections as of February 20, 2020 were 912,922 tons, within a range of trade expectations, above 795,399 tons previous week and compares to 761,656 tons year ago. Major countries included
Mexico for 333,572 tons, Japan for 197,892 tons, and Colombia for 170,482 tons.

・        
South Africa will release its initial estimate for corn production on Wednesday and a Reuters poll looks for 14.504 million tons, up from 11.259 million tons in 2019. 7.99 million was estimated for white and
6.52 million for yellow. 

・        
China lifted a ban on US beef and beef products for cows more than 30 months old. 

・        
Bulgaria reported two new outbreaks of H5N8 bird flu disease. 

・        
The US White House is considering an emergency fund to fight coronavirus. 

 

USDA
Attaché for Brazil: Livestock and Products Semi-annual

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Livestock%20and%20Products%20Semi-annual_Brasilia_Brazil_02-15-2020

 

 

Export
Developments

・        
South Korea’s KFA group bought 65,000 tons at around $210.20 for arrival around June 25. 

・        
South Korea’s FLC group bought 65,000 tons at around $215.00 for arrival around June 30. 

 

Updated
2/24/20

• CBOT
  May is seen in a $3.50 and $3.90 range.  If corn trades below $3.60, we see this as a buying opportunity.    
  

 

Soybean
complex.

• May
  soybeans ended 15.25 cents lower and May meal $2.60 lower.  May
  soybeans reached its lowest level since May 2019.  There was a decent amount of end user pricing in soybean meal.  Crush was off 2.75 cents basis the May. 
  May
  soybean oil dropped a staggering 112 points to 29.89 cents.    May
  SBO during the session took out last week’s low, ending at an early October 2019 level. 
  
• Today
  we saw the second USDA 24-hour sales announcement for this morning.  163,290 tons of soybeans were sold to Mexico.  Last sales announcement was back on February 3 with 130,000 tons of soybeans sold to Egypt. 
  

・        
USDA US soybean export inspections as of February 20, 2020 were 594,536 tons, below a range of trade expectations, below 1,005,050 tons previous week and compares to 1,308,510 tons year ago. Major countries
included China Main for 137,601 tons, Mexico for 101,381 tons, and Egypt for 93,999 tons.

・        
The USDA export inspections report showed China has not taken any soybeans from the Gulf over the past three weeks. 

 

• 1,032
  SH 890 soybean calls were abandoned on Friday.  2,885 SH 890 puts were exercised.  That was a home run. 
  
• Position
  day for March futures is Thursday. 
• Northern
  Europe was wet again over the weekend while the southern areas were dry.  Too much rain has cut crop production across the UK. 
  

・        
Argentina will be closed for holiday through Tuesday. 

・        
Soybeans in reals are sitting near a 4-year high so saw some additional Brazil soybean selling today. 

・        
APK-Inform reported Ukraine August to date sunflower oil exports at 2.438 million tons, up 66 percent from 1.466 million tons for the same period a year ago. 

・        
We last heard US Gulf soybean oil was 250 under (300 previous week) and IL basis at 25 over. 

・        
Malaysian Palm Oil Association forecast Feb. 1-20 production to increase by 17.4%.

・        
The Malaysian Palm Oil Council estimated palm oil prices (futures) to average 2,704 MYR during FH2020.  The have a target of 20.5 million tons for production in 2020. 

・        
India will begin importing palm oil from Bangladesh. 

・        
The European Union reported soybean import licenses since July 1 at 9.007 million tons, below 9.320 million tons a year ago, a 3 percent decrease. European Union soybean meal import licenses are running at
11.569 million tons so far for 2019-20, above 9.320 million tons a year ago. EU palm oil import licenses are running at 3.510 million tons for 2019-20, down from 4.189 million tons a year ago, or down 17 percent.

・        
European Union rapeseed import licenses since July 1 were 4.252 million tons, up 46 percent from 2.915 million tons from the same period a year ago.

 

 

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

• USDA
  FAS last week bought 5,980 tons of packaged vegetable oil for export from $1104.77-$1130.65/ton. 
  
• Under
  the 24-hour reporting system, US exporters sold 163,290 tons of soybeans to Mexico for the 2019-20 marketing year. 
  

 

Year
to date USDA 24-hour sales as follows:

 

Malaysian
palm oil C third month rolling contract

Source:
Reuters and FI

 

Updated
2/24/20

• May
  soybeans are seen in a wide $8.65-$9.15 range.
• May
  meal is seen in a $280
  to $3.05 range
• May
  soybean oil range is 28.50 to 31.50 (lowered 50 & 75)

 

Wheat

・        
US wheat futures traded down
for its fourth consecutive session on coronavirus concerns.  May
Chicago wheat ended 17.25 cents lower and now lowest level since December 13.  May KC wheat finished 16.25 cents lower and May MN gave up 11.00 cents. 

・        
USDA US all-wheat export inspections as of February 20, 2020 were 411,523 tons, within a range of trade expectations, below 503,082 tons previous week and compares to 767,570 tons year ago. Major countries
included Japan for 87,854 tons, Philippines for 64,999 tons, and Bangladesh for 58,360 tons.

・        
Canadian wheat and canola movement along rail lines are expected to increase after Canadian police started breaking up blockades that were put up in part to protest a new pipeline.  The blockade in Tyendinaga,
Ontario was put up February 6 and effectively cut off cross-country train routes. 

・        
Ukraine’s Deputy Minister projected the Ukraine grain harvest in 2020 to fall to 65-70 million tons from record 75.1 million tons in 2019. 

・        
Ukraine grain exports were 39.5 million tons to date, up 24 percent from the same period a year earlier. 

・        
We heard China bought Australian wheat last week, a blow to bull traders thinking China would shop for US wheat amid phase one trade deal. 

・        
SovEcon: Russian 12.5 percent protein wheat for export last $218/ton, down $2.00/ton. 

・        
May Paris wheat futures were down 3.25 at 189.50 euros. It hit 189.00 earlier in the session. 

・        
The European Union granted export licenses for 157,000 tons of soft wheat exports, bringing cumulative 2019-20 soft wheat export commitments to 18.715 MMT, up from 11.389 million tons committed at this time
last year, a 64 percent increase.  Imports are down 54 percent from year ago at 3.248 million tons.

 

 

 

 

Export
Developments.

• After
  buying US wheat on Friday, Tunisia’s state grains agency seeks another 125,000 tons of optional origin soft milling wheat on Feb. 25.
• Saudi
  Arabia bought 715,000 tons of 11% and 12.5% protein wheat at an average price of $247.46/ton for April-June shipment. 
  

• Jordan
  issued a new import tender for 120,000 tons of wheat set to close February 25 for Sep-Oct shipment. 
  
• Jordan
  issued a new import tender for 120,000 tons of feed barley set to close February 26 for June-July shipment. 
  
• Japan
  in an SBS import tender seeks 120,000 tons of feed wheat and 200,000 tons of feed barley for arrival in Japan by July 30, on Feb. 26. 
  
• Bangladesh
  seeks 50,000 tons of wheat by February 27. 
• Morocco
  seeks 354,000 tons of US durum wheat on March 5 for arrival by May 31.

 

Rice/Other

• The
  Philippines canceled unused import permit for up to 1 million tons of rice. 
  

 

Updated 2/24/20

・       
CBOT Chicago May wheat is seen in a $5.15-$5.80 range

・       
CBOT KC May wheat is seen in a $4.45-$4.95 range

・       
MN May wheat is seen in a $5.05-$5.55 range