From: Terry Reilly
Sent: Thursday, March 26, 2020 5:14:13 PM (UTC-06:00) Central Time (US & Canada)
Subject: FI Evening Grain Comments 03/26/20

PDF attached

 

 

Weather

 

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS:

A
good mix of weather is still anticipated for most of Brazil and Argentina crop areas over the next two weeks resulting in further support for good yields and crop quality. Production losses have occurred in Rio Grande do Sul this year along with some of the
early season corn and sunseed crop in Argentina because of dryness. The bulk of other crops have done favorably in both countries.

            U.S.
planting delays are expected to prevail through the first week of April due to wet field conditions and additional precipitation in the Delta and Tennessee River Basin with areas that are usually planted in early April also being impacted. Less rain and some
warming will occur for a little while in early April, but how significant that drying is remains to be seen.

           
India, China and Australia weather is mostly good for this time of year. Rain will have to fall in southern Australia by May to support autumn canola planting.

            Rain
in southern Europe has been and will continue to be good for early corn planting in Spain, Portugal, Italy and eventually in the southern Balkan Countries, although warming is needed.

            Southeast
Asia oil palm production areas are favorably moist in many areas, but greater rain is needed in parts of the northern and eastern Philippines and in northern Sumatra as well as the Malay Peninsula.

            South
Africa summer crops are developing favorably.

            Overall,
weather today will likely provide a mixed influence on market mentality with a slight bearish bias.

 

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR WHEAT:
 

Winter
crop development prospects are favorable in portions of Europe, the CIS, India and China, although some of these regions did not experience good weather for establishment last autumn and it will be important that ideal weather and soil conditions are present
this spring to induce improvement prior to reproduction. More moisture is needed in the southern CIS, Romania and parts of Spain while less rain is needed to the north and that is exactly what should evolve this week. Kazakhstan and Russia’s Southern Region
will stay too dry for at least another week with some rain potential rising in the April 3-9 period.

           
Recent North Africa rain has been good for late developing wheat and barley, but much of the lost production in Morocco cannot be reversed. Additional rain is expected over the next several days.

           
Australia needs rain to bolster soil moisture prior to planting in late April and May, but there is plenty of time for weather changes to evolve. Some rain is expected in New South Wales next week, but confidence is low on its significance.

           
Middle East wheat areas will soon need drier weather to support grain maturation and the same will be true in northern Africa.

           
U.S. small grain production areas are poised to develop favorably in this early spring, but greater moisture is needed in the west-central high Plains and less rain in the Midwest and Delta. Warming is needed too in some areas.

            Overall,
weather today will likely maintain a mixed influence on market mentality.

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

THURSDAY,
MARCH 26:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, 8:30am
  • POSTPONED:
    Cocoa Association of Asia’s International Cocoa Conference and Dinner in Singapore postponed to June 1-2
  • International
    Grains Council monthly supply & demand report
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • USDA
    hogs and pigs inventory, 3pm

FRIDAY,
MARCH 27:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report on coffee, cocoa, sugar positions ~2:30pm (~6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USDA
export sales

were good all around, including 100k+ for sorghum.  China accounted for a good chunk for many commodities (see text after the wheat section).  Table summaries below. 

 

 

 

 

Macros

US
Initial Jobless Claims Mar-21: 3282K (exp 1700K; prev 281K)

–         
Continuing Claims Mar-14: 1803K (exp 1791K; prev 1701K)

US
GDP Annualized (Q/Q) Q4 T: 2.1% (exp 2.1%; prev 2.1%)

–         
Personal Consumption Q4 T: 1.8% (exp 1.7%; prev 1.7%)


         GDP Price Index Q4 T: 1.3% (exp 1.3%; prev 1.3%)

–         
Core PCE (Q/Q) Q4 T: 1.3% (exp 1.2%; prev 1.2%)

US
Wholesale Inventories (M/M) Feb P: -0.2% (exp -0.2%; R prev -0.3%)

–         
Retail Inventories (M/M) Feb: -0.3% (exp -0.1%; prev 0.0%)

 

Corn.

·        
A Reuters article noted about a fifth of US ethanol production capacity will come offline by the end of the month, according to the Renewable Fuels Association.  Volume may exceed 3 billion gallons (11.4 billion
liters) of annual production by the end of March.

  • USDA
    export sales for corn exceeded 1.8 million tons, in large part to sales to China of 756,000 tons and Japan for 333,000 tons-91.2k switched), but the jump in outstanding sales does little to improve total crop-year commitments when comparing to the three previous
    years.  See China and total US commitment charts below the corn export development section.   
  • Decatur,
    IL corn is down 5 cents to 5 under.  Toledo was down 15 to option. 

·        
China looks to sell 20,000 tons of pork from reserves on March 27. 

·        
Argentina’s BAGE reported combined good and excellent corn conditions at 32 percent, down from 35 percent last week and compares to 54 percent year ago.  Two weeks ago, they were at 38 percent.  They left
their Argentina corn crop production unchanged at 50 million tons. 

·        
The International Grains Council estimated 2020-21 world grain production at a record 2.22 billion tons, 2% above 2019-20.  They pegged world corn output at 1.16 billion tons, up from 1.12 billion last year.

 

The
quarterly USDA hogs and pigs report

was viewed at slightly bearish in that there were more all hogs as of March 1.  Hog inventories expanded 4 percent from 2019, one percentage point above expectations.  Kept for breeding was up 0.4 percent from the previous year, 1.7 points below expectations,
and kept for market expanded 4.3 percent, 1.2 points above expectations.  This report could confirm a pause in the recent rally.  Hogs ended lower on the CME today. 

 

 

Export
Developments

  • None
    reported

 

 

 

Updated
3/24/
20

 

Soybean
complex.

  • CBOT
    soybeans

    ended
    lower by 1.25 cents, July unchanged and August up 0.25.  Soybean meal May ended up $1.20 and July up $2.00.  Soybean oil finished 11 to 14 points lower.  Soybeans saw wide swing.  Prices started lower but paired losses on higher meal.  Front end meal spreads
    were all over the place.  Light profit taking narrowed the spread.  Soybean oil saw losses tied in with palm oil and eroding Asian demand. The CBOT crush basis May increased 0.75 cent to 1.20 and July was up 3 cents to 1.1550. 
  • USDA
    export sales for soybeans were 904,300 tons, well above the previous week and included 199,300 tons for China and 406,100 tons for unknown.  Soybean oil sales were 55,900 tons, a marketing year high.  Soybean meal sales of 251,200 tons included the usual suspects. 
  • China
    was thought to have bought a combined 500,000 tons of soybeans from Brazil and US last week on improving Chinese crush margins, according to CNGOIC.  Margins slipped a thought from yesterday on our analysis but are high enough to promote soybean buying. 
    Reuters noted crush margins in Rizhao, Shandong province, rose over the past two weeks to 360 yuan ($50.73) a ton, highest in 8 years.
  • China
    has been a good new crop buyer of Brazilian soybeans.  We think 2021 commitments for this time of year could be a record.  Several traders are eying the November 2020/March 2021 soybean spread that inverted to 27.25 cents, November premium on March 23, from
    2 cents March 16.  It’s current around 19 cents, November premium this morning.  Many are hoping that China will come in and buy US soybeans this fall.  Traders should look at the inverse in the November 2020/January 2021 spread.  We think it can move to a
    3-4 cent carry, assuming good weather (put a tight stop on it with unknown market conditions).  Brazil will not be online until February or March anyway. 
  • Brazil
    will be wet for many winter crop locations by the end of the end of this weekend. 
  • A
    labor union in Argentina requested to suspend exports for 15 days.  The union represent inspectors crucial in the export process. 

·        
Argentina’s BAGE reported soybean conditions for the combined good and excellent categories at 34 percent, down from 34 percent last week and compares to 51 percent year ago.  Two weeks ago, they were at 50
percent.  They left their soybean production estimate unchanged at 52 million tons. 

  • Argentina
    producers that recently harvested corn and soybeans have been reserve sellers despite the government issuing a resolution late on Wednesday allowing trucks to roam freely.  Many municipalities had stopped or controlled truck movement amid coronavirus. 
  • Brazil
    soybean crop commitments are running at nearly 27 million tons, about 6 million tons above this time last season. 

·        
China issued 6,400 force majeure certificates to help companies cope with coronavirus problems.

·        
Indonesia January palm exports were 2.39 million tons, a 32 percent decrease from January 2019 and down from 3.72 million tons in December.

·        
Malaysian palm markets:
 Snapped
four day winning streak in part to lower energy futures.

·        
Russia’s vegetable oil lobby group is looking to limit sunflower seed exports for 6 months. 

Source:
Refinitiv and FI

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

  • None
    reported

 

 

Updated
3/23/20

 

Wheat

·        
The International Grains Council estimated 2020-21 world wheat production at 768 million tons, up from 763 million in 2019-20.

  • US
    southern Plains will see rain through Saturday.

·        
May Paris wheat ended 4.25 euros lower at 193.75 euros a ton.

 

 

Export
Developments.

 

Rice/Other

  • The
    Philippines seeks rice from Thailand and Vietnam.
  • Results
    awaited:
    South
    Korea seeks 20,000 tons of rice from China on March 25 for arrival around July 30. 
  • Results
    awaited:
    South
    Korea seeks 73,664 tons of rice on March 25 for arrival around end of Sep. to Oct 31. 

 

Updated 3/23/20

  • CBOT Chicago May wheat is seen in a $5.20-$5.80 range

·       
CBOT KC May wheat is seen in a $4.45-$5.25 range

·       
MN May wheat is seen in a $5.10-$5.60 range

 

Export Sales Highlights  

This summary is based on reports from exporters for the period March 13-19, 2020.

·        
Wheat:
  Net sales of 740,000 metric tons for 2019/2020 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 73 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily
for China (200,000 MT), South Korea (146,100 MT, including decreases of 18,400 MT), Japan (144,000 MT), Nigeria (87,300 MT, including 30,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Mexico (64,300 MT, including decreases of 700 MT), were offset by reductions
primarily for Bangladesh (29,800 MT), unknown destinations (24,600 MT), Jamaica (11,700 MT), and the Dominican Republic (7,000 MT).  For 2020/2021, net sales of 366,400 MT were primarily for China (285,000 MT), unknown destinations (36,800 MT), Panama (23,000
MT), and Peru (15,600 MT).  Exports of 415,700 MT were up 12 percent from the previous week, but down 11 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Taiwan (79,200 MT), the Philippines (65,200 MT), Indonesia (53,800 MT), Malaysia
(42,600 MT), and Mexico (35,300 MT). 

·        
Corn:
  Net sales of 1,814,300 MT for 2019/2020–a marketing-year high–were up noticeably from the previous week and up 81 percent from the prior 4-week average. 
Increases primarily for China (756,000 MT), Japan (333,000 MT, including 91,200 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,300 MT), Mexico (219,200 MT, including 24,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 3,700 MT), Colombia
(152,900 MT, including 50,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 3,900 MT), and South Korea (132,000 MT), were offset by reductions for unknown destinations (42,000 MT) and El Salvador (23,300 MT).  For 2020/2021, net sales of 82,900 MT
resulting in increases for Mexico (91,400 MT), were offset by reductions for Guatemala (8,500 MT).  Exports of 846,000 MT were down 13 percent from the previous week and 5 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Japan (257,500
MT), Mexico (231,500 MT), Colombia (120,700 MT), the Dominican Republic (86,700 MT), and Guatemala (65,000 MT). 

Optional Origin Sales:  For 2019/2020, options were exercised to export 65,000 MT to South Korea
from other than the United States.  The current outstanding balance of 646,000 MT is for South Korea (586,000 MT) and Israel (60,000 MT). 

·        
Barley:
No net sales for 2019/2020 were reported for the week.  Exports of 3,400 MT–a marketing-year high–were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. 
The destinations were Japan (3,100 MT) and Taiwan (300 MT).

·        
Sorghum:
  Net sales of 107,600 MT for 2019/2020 resulting in increases for China (121,000 MT, including 65,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Japan (1,300 MT), and Mexico (300
MT, including decreases of 200 MT), were offset by reductions for unknown destinations (15,000 MT).  Exports of 27,900 MT were down 63 percent from the previous week and 39 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Japan (16,300
MT) and Mexico (11,500 MT). 

·        
Rice: 
Net sales of 73,000 MT for 2019/2020 were up 52 percent from the previous week and 61 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Japan
(15,400 MT), Haiti (15,200 MT), Panama (12,100 MT), Canada (6,700 MT), and the United Kingdom (6,700 MT). 
Exports of 71,900 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and up 59 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Colombia (26,900 MT), Nicaragua (15,600 MT),
Panama (12,100 MT), Canada (5,100 MT), and South Korea (4,700 MT).

·        
Soybeans:
  Net sales of 904,300 MT for 2019/2020 were up 43 percent from the previous week and up noticeably from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for
unknown destinations (406,100 MT), China (199,300 MT), Indonesia (69,400 MT, including 55,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,000 MT), Bangladesh (55,000 MT), and Peru (37,400 MT, including 35,000 MT switched from unknown destinations),
were offset by reductions for Egypt (2,200 MT).  For 2020/2021, total net sales of 500 MT were for Japan.  Exports of 607,100 MT were up 26 percent from the previous week and 4 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Egypt
(127,800 MT), Taiwan (94,800 MT), Japan (74,700 MT), Indonesia (74,400 MT), and China (64,300 MT).  

Exports for Own Account:  For 2019/2020, the current exports for own account outstanding balance
is 2,100 MT, all Canada.

·        
Soybean Cake and Meal
:  Net sales of 251,200 MT for 2019/2020 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 39 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for the Philippines
(50,500 MT), Indonesia (49,500 MT), Colombia (40,100 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), Israel (27,000 MT), and Canada (19,400 MT, including decreases of 1,100 MT), were offset by reductions for the Dominican Republic (1,800 MT).  Net sales of 16,000 MT for
2020/2021 were primarily for Guatemala (15,600 MT).  Exports of 289,700 MT were up 20 percent from the previous week, but down 3 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Spain (60,400 MT), Indonesia (50,600 MT), Mexico (34,200
MT), Colombia (31,700 MT), and Ecuador (31,600 MT).

Export Adjustment:  Accumulated exports of soybean cake and meal to the Philippines were adjusted down 49,500 MT for week ending
March 12th.  The exports were reported in error.

·        
Soybean Oil: 
Net sales of 55,900 MT for 2019/2020–a marketing-year high–primarily for South Korea (35,000 MT), Jamaica (10,500 MT), Mexico (4,600 MT), the Dominican Republic (2,600 MT),
and Guatemala (2,500 MT), were offset by reductions for Canada (2,700 MT).  Exports of 14,000 MT were down 64 percent from the previous week and 49 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to the Dominican Republic (5,400 MT),
Colombia (4,600 MT), Mexico (3,700 MT) and Canada (200 MT). 

·        
Cotton:
  Net sales of 277,100 RB for 2019/2020 were down 19 percent from the previous week and 23 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Vietnam
(74,900 RB, including 1,300 RB switched from Malaysia and decreases of 9,300 RB), Turkey (55,200 RB, including 2,200 RB switched from Vietnam), Pakistan (53,200 RB, including decreases of 1,800 RB), China (44,900 RB, including decreases of 8,800 RB), and Indonesia
(13,300 RB, including 300 RB switched from Japan and decreases of 800 RB), were offset by reductions for Japan (1,400 RB) and Honduras (600 RB).  For 2020/2021, net sales of 120,100 RB were primarily for Pakistan (26,400 RB), China (17,600 RB), South Korea
(15,400 RB), Mexico (12,800 RB), and Honduras (9,700 RB).  Exports of 386,800 RB were up 5 percent from the previous week, but down 3 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Exports were primarily to Pakistan (86,100 RB), Turkey (71,300 RB), China (65,800
RB), Vietnam (55,200 RB), and Indonesia (31,500 RB).  Net sales of Pima totaling 18,300 RB were up 7 percent from the previous week and 2 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for China (8,400 RB), Pakistan (6,100 RB), India (1,500
RB), Indonesia (1,300 RB), and Italy (500 RB), were offset by reductions for Switzerland (900 RB), Japan (300 RB), and El Salvador (200 RB).  Exports of 17,400 RB were up 11 percent from the previous week and 8 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary
destinations were primarily to China (4,000 RB), Pakistan (3,900 RB), India (3,600 RB), El Salvador (1,200 RB), and Vietnam (1,100 RB).  

Exports for Own Account:  For 2019/2020, exports for own account totaling 7,500 RB to Indonesia
(7,000 RB) and South Korea (400 RB) were applied to new or outstanding sales.  The current exports for own account outstanding balance of 32,000 RB is for Indonesia (20,100 RB), Bangladesh (6,500 RB), China (2,500 RB), India (1,700 RB), Pakistan (500 RB),
Malaysia (400 RB), and Vietnam (300 RB).

·        
Hides and Skins:
Net sales of 408,800 pieces for 2020 were down 11 percent from the previous
week, but up 8 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (248,900 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 6,200 pieces), South Korea (77,600 whole cattle hides, including 3,300 whole cattle hides switched from Hong Kong and decreases
of 2,500 pieces), Mexico (41,400 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 600 pieces), Indonesia (24,300 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 700 pieces), and Taiwan (16,200 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 1,300 pieces), were offset by reductions
primarily for Brazil (5,600 whole cattle hides) and Hong Kong (3,300 whole cattle hides).  Exports of 363,100 pieces reported for 2020 were up 12 percent from the previous week and 8 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Whole cattle hide exports were primarily
to China (174,800 pieces), Mexico (58,100 pieces), South Korea (55,800 pieces), Thailand (31,000 pieces), and Taiwan (17,900 pieces).  In addition, there were exports to Belgium (2,700 kip skins) and Japan (1,200 kip skins). 

·        
Net sales of 105,000 wet blues
for 2020 were up 11 percent from the previous week, but
down 4 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Italy (26,400 unsplit), Thailand (25,200 unsplit), China (14,600 grain splits and 8,300 unsplit), Vietnam (15,400 unsplit), and Mexico (7,800 grain splits).  Exports of 115,400 wet
blues for 2020 were down 30 percent from the previous week and 24 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Italy (20,900 unsplit and 4,100 grain splits), China (12,500 grain splits and 9,300 unsplit), Thailand (19,900 unsplit),
Brazil (8,700 grain splits and 5,200 unsplit), and Vietnam (11,100 unsplit).  Total net sales of 791,600 splits were for Vietnam.  Exports of 324,600 pounds were to Vietnam (321,000 pounds) and China (3,600 pounds).

·        
Beef:

Net sales of 14,500 MT reported for 2020 were down 32 percent from the previous week and 12 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for South Korea
(7,200 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), Japan (5,100 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), Taiwan (700 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Canada (600 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Hong Kong (300 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), were offset by
reductions for Vietnam (100 MT).  Exports of 16,800 MT were up 1 percent from the previous week, but unchanged from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Japan (7,100 MT), South Korea (4,000 MT), Mexico (1,400 MT), Taiwan (1,200 MT),
and Canada (1,000 MT).

·        
Pork:
Net sales of 38,600 MT reported for 2020 were up 8 percent from the previous week and 89 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases
were primarily for Mexico (11,100 MT), China (9,500 MT), Japan (9,400 MT), Canada (2,400 MT), and Chile (1,200 MT).  Exports of 48,600 MT–a marketing-year high–were up 13 percent from the previous week and 12 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations
were primarily to China (23,000 MT), Mexico (9,600 MT), Japan (5,400 MT), South Korea (3,500 MT), and Canada (2,400 MT).

 

U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING 3/19/2020





























 

CURRENT MARKETING YEAR

NEXT MARKETING YEAR

COMMODITY

NET SALES

OUTSTANDING SALES

WEEKLY EXPORTS

ACCUMULATED EXPORTS

NET SALES

OUTSTANDING SALES

CURRENT YEAR

YEAR
AGO

CURRENT YEAR

YEAR
AGO

 

THOUSAND METRIC TONS

WHEAT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   HRW    

370.3

1,928.3

2,462.9

188.7

7,321.9

5,906.8

296.9

440.2

   SRW    

-4.0

289.5

853.5

12.8

2,044.2

2,231.4

45.0

162.4

   HRS     

167.9

1,640.4

1,321.9

141.8

5,632.2

5,199.0

4.5

176.2

   WHITE   

121.8

1,119.7

1,061.6

72.5

3,821.1

4,100.8

0.0

36.0

   DURUM  

84.0

230.4

120.7

0.0

682.2

360.4

20.0

151.0

     TOTAL

740.0

5,208.3

5,820.6

415.7

19,501.7

17,798.3

366.4

965.8

BARLEY

0.0

11.3

26.0

3.4

37.8

33.4

0.0

31.0

CORN

1,814.3

13,783.9

13,879.2

846.0

17,048.1

28,778.9

82.9

1,740.7

SORGHUM

107.6

1,286.6

228.3

27.9

1,186.0

718.9

0.0

33.0

SOYBEANS

904.3

4,612.9

12,429.5

607.1

31,291.1

29,175.3

0.5

414.9

SOY MEAL

251.2

3,051.2

3,396.8

289.7

5,610.5

5,733.4

16.0

116.8

SOY OIL

55.9

278.9

129.6

14.0

553.1

418.4

0.0

2.5

RICE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   L G RGH

17.2

346.8

316.0

55.6

935.2

755.0

0.0

0.0

   M S RGH

6.0

43.3

183.0

0.4

24.5

25.2

0.0

0.0

   L G BRN

6.7

20.9

6.4

0.3

36.3

29.0

0.0

0.0

   M&S BR

0.2

63.7

78.6

2.5

44.3

62.7

0.0

0.0

   L G MLD

21.7

93.4

123.7

4.9

656.9

582.9

0.0

0.0

   M S MLD

21.1

225.5

185.8

8.2

398.2

342.9

0.0

0.0

     TOTAL

73.0

793.6

893.5

71.9

2,095.4

1,797.8

0.0

0.0

COTTON

 

THOUSAND RUNNING BALES      

   UPLAND

277.1

6,918.4

5,839.4

386.8

8,226.5

6,726.1

120.1

1,895.1

   PIMA

18.3

235.1

250.0

17.4

304.8

365.1

0.0

35.3

 

 

Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International │190 S LaSalle St., Suite 410│Chicago, IL  60603

W: 312.604.1366

treilly@futures-int.com

AIM: fi_treilly

ICE IM: 
treilly1

Skype: fi.treilly

 

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