________________________________
From: Terry Reilly
Sent: Monday, August 06, 2018 5:14:14 PM (UTC-06:00) Central Time (US & Canada)
Subject: FI Evening Grain Comments 08/06/18
PDF attached
Calls: Soybeans up 8-10, corn up 3-4, and Wheat 8-14 higher with MN lead
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· Rain that fell over the weekend was welcome across parts of IA into southern WI. Other areas saw increasing crop stress.
· Note critical rain will fall through Tuesday across southern IA before a week of dry weather sets in. Next critical rain even will be during the August 15-17 period.
· World weather highlights:
“Critical rain is expected later today into Tuesday across southern Iowa, but not all of the region is likely to receive enough rain to prevent rising levels of crop stress when a week to ten days of mostly dry weather begins Wednesday. Drying in recent weeks and the past weekend’s hot and dry weather raised crop stress and many crops are likely on the verge of significant yield reductions. Rain is expected throughout the region and some locally heavy rain will fall, but coverage of rain greater than 1.00 inch is not likely to be widespread and those areas that fail to receive significant rain are likely to see steadily increasing levels of crop stress and declining yields until the next round of rain occurs. Corn should be too far advanced to suffer from significant declines in yields, but soybean yields could come down significantly. Rain advertised during the Aug. 15-17 period will be another critical event. Temperatures will be mild most often during the next ten days and that will help prevent rapid increases in crop stress.
Eastern Kansas into Missouri will also see rain by Tuesday, but the soil there is drier than southern Iowa’s soil and outside of the small areas that see multiple inches of rain, stress to crops is likely to increase again soon after drier weather begins Wednesday.
Michigan will see widespread rain by Tuesday with additional showers possible through early next week. Most of the region should receive enough rain to maintain or improve soil conditions.
Meanwhile, the remainder of the Midwest, will continue to see mostly favorable conditions for crops and high yield potentials through the next two weeks. Most areas in the west will dry down significantly from Wednesday into the middle of next week, but soil moisture should be high enough to support the needs of most crops. Shower activity will be greater in the eastern Corn Belt and conditions for crops will be highly favorable in most areas. “
AREAS OF GREATEST INTEREST
* Europe weather is expected to change during the middle and latter part of this week
* A succession of weather disturbances will begin impacting western and central Europe bringing cooler temperatures and periodic rainfall
* It will take several days for meaningful rain to reach all of the driest areas, but relief is expected and the pattern change will continue into next week
* Soil moisture improvements will come very slowly, but cooler temperatures will evolve more swiftly
* Drought continued in northwestern Europe where weekend rainfall was minimal and temperatures still well above average
* High temperatures in the middle and upper 90s Fahrenheit occurred in most of France and parts of Germany and 80s and lower 90s in England, Wales, Denmark and other southwestern Scandinavia areas
* Spain and Portugal reported highest temperatures of 100 to 108 except in southern Portugal where extremes reached 113
* The bottom line in Europe will be good for late season crops, but it has been dry and warm enough for a long enough period of time in the northwest that production cuts will not be fully reversible. Some late season crop improvement is possible, however
* Typhoon Shanshan may impact Honshu, Japan in the second half of this week, although confidence in the storm’s path is low
* Landfall is expected late Wednesday or Thursday near Tokyo and the storm may then move north northeast through the upper half of Honshu producing torrential rainfall and strong wind
* The storm threatens rice and citrus production areas, although most of the potential damage will be on central and eastern portions of Honshu
* Eastern Australia will receive some rain today and Monday
* Northern New South Wales and Queensland will receive 0.05 to 0.35 inch with local totals to 0.60 inch
* The precipitation will be welcome, but not enough on its own for a serious change in soil moisture
* No follow up moisture is advertised for at least ten days
* Australia weekend rain was minimal in the east while Western Australia reported scattered showers and thunderstorms
* The bottom line for Australia is a more urgent need for rain this month in preparation for spring crop development in Queensland and northern New South Wales. Without improved rainfall the east-central crop areas will yield very poorly. Sufficient rain is expected in the west and south to combine with favorable soil moisture to ensure good late winter crop conditions.
* India monsoonal rainfall will continue limited in the west and south through the next ten days
* Rain is expected frequently from eastern Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh into Bangladesh, West Bengal, Odisha and the far Eastern States where multiple inches of rain are anticipated
* Rain will fall in Rajasthan, Gujarat and areas south into Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, but amounts will be below average with many areas failing to get enough rain to counter evaporation
* Temperatures will be seasonable
* India weekend rainfall was minimal from Maharashtra and western Madhya Pradesh to Pakistan and erratic showers and thunderstorms of limited significance occurred farther south
* Weekend rainfall was greatest in northern and eastern Uttar Pradesh and India’s far Eastern States where 0.50 to more than 2.50 inches resulted
* Local totals of 7.00 to more than 11.00 inches occurred from Uttaranchal into far northern Uttar Pradesh and to 3.50 inches in the Eastern States
* Pakistan continues to suffer from excessive heat and dry weather
* Highest temperatures during the weekend were in the range of 100 to 111 degrees Fahrenheit similar to that reported last week
* Monsoonal rainfall has failed to reach southern Pakistan this year stressing some crops
* Water supply in northern parts of the nation was already below average this year and limited summer rainfall and persistent heat has not helped the situation
* Crop yields may be down, although irrigation has continued to be applied
* Southern Canada Prairies drought will not change this week; hot dry conditions are expected most of this week
* Very little rainfall is expected in the drought region until late in the coming weekend or early next week
* Hot weather is expected throughout the Canada Prairies this week with readings well above average until the weekend when rain and cooling evolve
* Extreme highs in the upper 80s and 90s Fahrenheit will be widespread and several extremes over 100 degrees are expected in the drought stricken areas in the south
* Thursday into Saturday will be hottest
* Canada Prairies weekend rainfall occurred most significantly from Manitoba to northeastern Saskatchewan where 0.05 to 0.75 inch and local totals of more than 1.00 inch resulted
* Rainfall elsewhere was 0.05 to 0.50 inch with very little rain of significance near the U.S. border
* Highest temperatures were in the upper 60s and 70s northwest and in the 80s and lower 90s in the south
* The bottom line for Canada’s Prairies remains one of concern over ongoing drought in the south and some central crop areas where production cuts are prevailing. Northern crop areas remain in mostly good shape, but a few areas will need later than usual frost and freezes to avoid crop damage because of wet weather at times this year.
* Russia’s Southern Region, middle and lower Volga River Valley and central and eastern Ukraine will experience net drying over the next ten days
* Temperatures will be warmer than usual, but not excessively hot
* Highs in the 80s and 90s Fahrenheit are most likely
* Net drying will raise crop moisture stress and return a more serious level of drought in southern portions of the described region
* A boost in western Russia, Belarus, Baltic States and western Ukraine rainfall is expected next week, but this week is expected to be drier biased with a more erratic distribution of rain
* Seasonably warm temperatures are expected
* Brazil rain fell significantly Friday into Saturday from northern Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul to southern Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro
* Rain amounts reached 4.12 inches in northern Parana and nearly 4.68 inches in central Mato Grosso do Sul while 0.60 to 1.61 inches occurred elsewhere
* Rainfall of 0.05 to 0.60 inch surrounded the heavier rainfall region
* Some coffee flowering will result
* Wheat areas in northern Parana and Sao Paulo benefited from the moisture as did sugarcane and citrus
* No citrus flowering was suspected, although bud swelling may be taking place
* Interior southern Brazil and southern portions of Center South Brazil will receive additional rain through Friday
* Rain totals of 1.00 to 2.00 inches may impact far southern Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro, portions of Sao Paulo, Parana and southern Mato Grosso do Sul
* The greatest rain will occur tonight and Monday
* Showers rest of this week will be more random and light with Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina and southern Parana wettest late this week
* Net drying is expected this weekend and next week
Source: World Weather INC
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SIGNIFICANT CORN AND SOYBEAN BELT PRECIPITATION EVENTS
WEST CORN BELT EAST CORN BELT
Tdy-Tue 50% cvg of up to 0.75” 90% cvg of 0.15-0.90”
and local amts over 2.0”; and local amts over 2.50”;
wettest south driest SE
Wed 40% cvg of up to 0.40”
and local amts to 0.65”
Wed-Fri 10-25% daily cvg of
up to 0.30” and locally
more each day;
wettest east
Thu-Aug 13 20-40% daily cvg of
up to 0.40” and locally
more each day
Sat-Aug 14 Up to 20% daily cvg of
up to 0.25” and locally
more each day; some
days may be dry
Aug 14-15 5-20% daily cvg of up
to 0.30” and locally
more each day
Aug 15-17 65% cvg of up to 0.60”
and local amts to 1.30”
Aug 16-18 75% cvg of up to 0.60”
and local amts to 1.30”
Aug 18 15% cvg of up to 0.20”
and locally more
Aug 19 15% cvg of up to 0.20”
and locally more
Aug 19-21 55% cvg of up to 0.50”
and locally more
Aug 20-21 65% cvg of up to 0.50”
and locally more
U.S. DELTA/SOUTHEAST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS
DELTA SOUTHEAST
Tdy-Tue 15-35% daily cvg of
up to 0.50” and locally
more each day
Tue-Wed 75% cvg of up to 0.75”
and local amts to 1.70”;
driest south
Wed-Fri 75% cvg of up to 0.75”
and local amts to 2.0”;
east Ga. and S.C. driest
Thu-Fri 75% cvg of up to 0.75”
and local amts to 2.0”;
wettest south
Sat-Aug 13 80% cvg of up to 0.75”
and local amts to 1.50”;
driest west
Sat-Sun 15-35% daily cvg of
up to 0.50” and locally
more each day
Aug 13-16 5-20% daily cvg of up
to 0.30” and locally
more each day
Aug 14-16 10-25% daily cvg of
up to 0.30” and locally
more each day
Aug 17-19 65% cvg of up to 0.60” 65% cvg of up to 0.75”
and locally more and locally more
Source: World Weather INC and FI
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Bloomberg weekly agenda
MONDAY, AUG. 6:
* Canada on holiday
* Malaysian Palm Oil Council POINTERS webinar
* Malaysian Palm Oil Board, Malaysian Palm Oil Council, Indonesian Palm Oil Association give their latest market outlook
* EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data, 10am (3pm London)
* USDA weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
* USDA weekly crop progress report, 4pm
* Ivory Coast weekly cocoa arrivals
* EARNINGS: Tyson Foods
TUESDAY, AUG. 7:
* New Zealand dairy auction on Global Dairy Trade online market starts ~7am ET (~noon London, ~11pm Wellington)
* China National Grain and Oils Information Center (CNGOIC) publishes forecast on country’s grains output
* EARNINGS: Dean Foods, Mosaic
WEDNESDAY, AUG. 8:
* China’s General Administration of Customs releases preliminary agricultural commodity trade data for July, 11pm ET Tuesday (11am Beijing Wednesday)
* EIA U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, output, 10:30am
* French Agriculture Ministry publishes crop areas, production forecasts
THURSDAY, AUG. 9:
* USDA weekly net-export sales for corn, wheat, soy, cotton, 8:30am
* Brazil’s crop agency Conab updates its forecast on 2017-18 grain and oilseed crop, 8am ET (9am Sao Paulo)
* Strategie Grains monthly report on European market outlook
* Port of Rouen data on French grain exports
* Buenos Aires Grain Exchange weekly crop report
* Bloomberg weekly survey of analysts’ expectations on grain, sugar prices
* EARNINGS: BayWa
FRIDAY, AUG. 10:
* USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report for August, noon
* China’s Ministry of Agriculture publishes China Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (CASDE) report
* Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) releases data on palm oil stockpiles, exports, production as