FW: FI Morning Grain Comments 03/10/20

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Morning. 
USDA report will be out later today. 

 

 

Weather

 

Japan’s
weather department said there is a 60 percent of El Nino / La Nina occurring through the summer.

 

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS: 

Worry
over U.S. wet weather will begin to rise as an active weather pattern further delays early-season planting of corn in the Delta and interior southeastern parts of the nation.

Some
needed rain will fall in some very important Argentina crop areas this week to help curb moisture stress and to protect production potentials. Greater rain will be needed in the north and far south. Brazil weather should be mostly good with some relief from
recent drying in the west and south next week. South Africa will experience a few showers and thunderstorms with some net drying.

Europe
is plenty moist and poised for good early spring crop development, although moisture is needed in the southeast corner of the continent. Recent flooding and that expected to continue in northwestern Europe could damage a few crops in low-lying areas.

China
winter crops along with those in India will perform well this winter with good yields.

Overall,
weather today will likely provide a mixed influence on market mentality.

 

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR WHEAT: 

Recent
weather and that which is coming this week will continue to promote earlier than usual winter crop development in the U.S. southern Plains, Delta and southeastern states as well as southern Russia, southern Ukraine and parts of China. Moisture in Canada’s
Prairies will improve spring planting conditions when seasonal warming begins. North Africa will continue struggling for moisture in Morocco and northwestern Algeria as well as in parts of Spain this week, but some rain may fall this weekend into next week
to offer a little relief.

           
Overall weather today will likely provide a neutral to bearish bias to market mentality.

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

TUESDAY,
MARCH 10:

• USDA’s
  monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) report, noon
• Brazil
  Conab soybean and corn yield, area and production, 8am
• China
  agriculture ministry (CASDE) supply & demand monthly report
• AmSpec,
  Intertek, SGS release palm oil export data for March 1-10
• Malaysian
  Palm Oil Board data on palm production, exports, stocks
• Ros
  Agro 4Q results

WEDNESDAY,
MARCH 11:

• EIA
  U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• Santander
  and Datagro hold sugar, ethanol conference, Sao Paulo
• FranceAgriMer
  monthly cereals balance sheet

THURSDAY,
MARCH 12:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, 8:30am
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• New
  Zealand food prices, 5:45pm

FRIDAY,
MARCH 13:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report on coffee, cocoa, sugar positions ~1:30pm (~6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USDA
inspections versus Reuters trade range                                                    

Wheat         
415,548         versus   400000-700000  range

Corn             
829,865         versus   800000-1100000                range

Soybeans   
572,416         versus   500000-800000  range

 

 

Macros

·        
Tuesday turnaround

 

Corn.

·        
Rebound in commodities spilled into agriculture markets.  By 9:20 ct, CBOT corn was up 5.75 cents basis May.

·        
Bull spreading was a feature. 

·        
USDA US corn export inspections as of March 05, 2020 were 829,865 tons, within a range of trade expectations, below 896,221 tons previous week and compares to 793,570 tons year ago. Major countries included Mexico for 315,139 tons, Japan
for 201,200 tons, and Chile for 84,562 tons.

 

Export
Developments

• None
  reported

 

 

Soybean
complex.

• CBOT
  soybeans
  were 13.75 cents higher during the first hour of day session trading.  Meal was strong, up $5.70 and SBO higher by 21 points. 
  
• USDA
  will update S&D’s later today. 
• Ukraine
  sunflower exports so far in 2019-20 were 2.64 million tons, up 73 percent from year earlier, according to APK-Inform. 
  
• AgRural
  reported Brazil’s soybean harvest at 50 percent as of March 5, compared to 40 percent a week earlier and 57 percent year earlier. 
  
• Offshore
  values are leading CBOT soybean oil 101 points higher and meal $6.70 higher.
  

·        
Rotterdam vegetable oils this morning were up 4 euros for nearby soybean oil positions and down around 12 euros for rapeseed oil. Rotterdam meal when imported from SA were unchanged to 6 euros higher. 

·        
China:

·        
China cash crush margins as of this morning, using our calculation, were 135 cents per bushel, and compares to 136 cents a week ago and negative 21 cents around this time last year. 

·        
AmSpec reported 1-10 March pam oil shipments at 351,874 tons, down 3.5 percent from the previous month.  SGS reported 351,874 tons, down 3.5 percent.  ITS is at 335,155 tons, down 2.4%.

·        
Malaysian palm markets:
 

·        
USDA US soybean export inspections as of March 05, 2020 were 572,416 tons, within a range of trade expectations, below 672,174 tons previous week and compares to 888,690 tons year ago. Major countries included China Main for 139,721 tons,
Japan for 123,777 tons, and Indonesia for 81,268 tons.

·        
The European Union reported soybean import licenses since July 1 at 9.500 million tons, below 10.024 million tons a year ago, a 5 percent decrease. European Union soybean meal import licenses are running at 12.296 million tons so far for
2019-20, below 12.043 million tons a year ago. EU palm oil import licenses are running at 3.706 million tons for 2019-20, down from 4.484 million tons a year ago, or down 17 percent.

·        
European Union rapeseed import licenses since July 1 were 4.333 million tons, up 41 percent from 3.068 million tons from the same period a year ago.

 

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

• Under
  the 24-hour reporting system, US exporters sold 123,000 tons of soybeans to unknown for the 2019-20 marketing year.  Yesterday they reported 123,500 tons of soybeans to unknown.
  

 

Wheat

·        
Chicago wheat fell 1.50 basis May, KC near unchanged and MN 0.50 cent higher, as of 9:22 ct. 

·        
There was talk China was inquiring for PNW spring wheat.  If they do decide to buy spring wheat, this should be supportive for futures, regardless the amount committed. 

·        
May Paris wheat futures were up 0.25 euros as of early this morning.

·        
USDA US all-wheat export inspections as of March 05, 2020 were 415,548 tons, within a range of trade expectations, below 656,160 tons previous week and compares to 615,715 tons year ago. Major countries included Korea Rep for 82,229 tons,
Mexico for 73,272 tons, and Japan for 72,567 tons.

·        
The European Union granted export licenses for 451,000 tons of soft wheat exports, bringing cumulative 2019-20 soft wheat export commitments to 21.223 MMT, down from 12.461 million tons committed at this time last year, a 70 percent increase. 
Imports are down 54 percent from year ago at 3.393 million tons.

 

 

Export
Developments.

• Jordan bought 60,000 tons of wheat at $219/ton for LH Sep shipment.  
  
• Tunisia seeks 100,000 tons of milling wheat and 75,000 tons of barley on March 11. 
  
• Syria seeks 200,000 tons of wheat from Russia, Bulgaria, or Romania, on March 11. 
  
• Algeria seeks 50,000 tons of milling wheat, optional origin, on March 11, valid until March 12, for April
  and/or May shipment depending on origin. 
• Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of feed barley on March 11.  June-FH Aug. shipment. 
  
• Japan in an SBS import tender seeks 120,000 tons of feed wheat and 200,000 tons of feed barley for arrival
  in Japan by Aug 27, on March 11. 
• Turkey seeks 305,000 tons of wheat on March 11 for late March and/or early shipment. 
  
• Syria seeks 200,000 tons of wheat from Russia by March 23.  No purchase was made that closed on February 17. 
  
• Ethiopia seeks 400,000 tons of wheat on April 7.  IN a separate tender, they seek 200,000 tons of wheat on
  April 1.  Both are optional origin. 

 

Rice/Other

• Outside markets remain primary focus