FW: FI Morning Grain Comments 04/16/19

PDF attached

 

Weather

・         The 5-day precipitation outlook for the US looks wetter than that of yesterday. 

・         More rain fell across the eastern Corn Belt and SE over the past day. 

・         Temperatures will warm this week across the US and the 6-10 shows above average temperatures for the central Great Plains.

・         Eastern Ukraine is expected to see follow up rain early this week followed by drier weather.

・         There is some concern over cold/frost with the rapeseed crops in France and Germany over the weekend.

・         Argentina will turn drier through Thursday. 

・         South central Brazil will see drier weather this week.

Source: World Weather Inc. and FI

 

 

 

Source: World Weather Inc. and FI

 

Source: World Weather Inc. and FI

 

 

 

Bloomberg Ag Calendar

TUESDAY, APRIL 16:

• New Zealand dairy auction on Global Dairy Trade online market starts ~7am ET (~noon London, ~11pm Wellington)
• Barry Callebaut investor day in Zurich
• ECA 1Q cocoa grind data, 2am ET (7am BST)
• German Confectionery Industry to release quarterly grinding figures, 2am ET (7am BST)

WEDNESDAY, APRIL 17:

• EIA weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, output, 10:30am ET
• China 1Q hog inventories data, 10pm ET, Tuesday (10am CST)
• Canaplan conference on 2019-10 sugar-cane crop outlook for Brazil’s Center-south
• Cocoa Association of Asia’s 1Q cocoa grinding data
• Holiday in India, Indonesia

THURSDAY, APRIL 18:

• USDA weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, 8:30am ET
• Buenos Aires Grain Exchange weekly crop report
• Port of Rouen data on French grain exports
• Bloomberg weekly survey of analysts’ expectations on grain, sugar prices

FRIDAY, APRIL 19:

• FranceAgriMer weekly update on French crop conditions
• Japan announces result of SBS tender for food wheat, 5am ET (6am JST)
• Holiday in Europe, Americas, India, Australia, Indonesia

SATURDAY, APRIL 20

• Annual China Agricultural Outlook Conference, Beijing
• AmSpec, Intertek: Malaysia’s April 1-20 palm oil exports,11pm ET Tuesday (11am KL)

Source: Bloomberg and FI

 

CBOT ag registrations

・         Soybean meal down 201 to zero.

LAFAYETTE, IN

SIDNEY, OH

GILMAN, IL

 

 

 

 

USDA inspections versus Reuters trade range                                

Wheat       511,400     versus  400000-600000

Corn          1,182,140  versus  800000-1200000

Soybeans   460,667     versus  460000-900000

 

USD/Yuan

Source: Reuters and FI

 

Macros

・         USD 5 points higher (7:45 am CT)

・         US DOW +155

・         Crude up $0.27

・         Gold down $9.20

・         Canadian Manufacturing Sales M/M (Feb): -0.2% (est 0.0%, prevR 0.8%)

・         Canada Securities Cdns C$ (Feb):  5.30Bln (prevR -8.78Bln)

・         Canada Securities Foreign C$ (Feb): 12.05Bln  (prevR 28.59Bln)

 

Corn.

• Corn futures hit session lows just before the electronic break.
• Most of the volume overnight in corn was in spreads.
• Baltic Dry Index increased 11 points to 749.
• USDA FAS Attaché estimated Uruguay corn imports in 2019-20 at 280,000 tons from 60,000 tons a year ago, as production may fall to 560,000 tons from 800,000 tons.

・         Soybean and Corn Advisory:

• 2018/19 Argentina Corn Estimate increased 1.0 mt to 48.0 Million

o   2018/19 Brazil Corn Estimate Increased 2.0 mt to 96.5 Million Tons

• USDA US corn export inspections as of April 11, 2019 were 1,182,140 tons, within a range of trade expectations, above 1,062,381 tons previous week and compares to 1,576,193 tons year ago. Major countries included Japan for 387,242 tons, Mexico for 285,510 tons, and Colombia for 187,045 tons.

・         US corn planting progress increased 1 point to 3 percent, 2 points below average. ND, IA, and IL were at zero percent.

 

 

Export Developments

• Taiwan’s MFIG seeks 65,000 tons of corn on Wednesday, April 17 from the United States, Brazil, Argentina or South Africa, for shipment between June 27 and July 16 (if sourced from the U.S. Gulf, Brazil or Argentina). 
• India’s MMTC seeks an unspecified amount of corn on May 8, valid until May 26 for shipment until May 29 and June 20.
• Turkey’s TMO seeks 300,000 tons of corn on April 24 in 24 separate tenders of 12.5k each, for May-June shipment.

 

Soybean complex.

• CBOT soybeans are lower this morning on lack of bullish news. SA crops keeping getting bigger.

・         Germany’s association of farm cooperatives (DRV) estimated the 2019 winter rapeseed crop down 11.6 percent at 3.24 million tons from a smaller planted area.

・         Soybean and Corn Advisory:

o   2018/19 Brazil Soybean Estimate Increased 1.0 mt to 116.0 Million

o   2018/19 Argentina Soybean Estimate Increased 1.0 mt to 56.0 Million

• China markets:

・         Malaysian palm markets: 

• Offshore values early this morning was leading the soybean oil 19 points higher and meal $0.20 higher.

・         Our China cash crush margin calculation were last negative 53 cents and compares to negative 62 cents late last week and positive 145 cents year ago.

・         Rotterdam vegetable oils earlier were unchanged to up 7.50 euros in the nearby positions from this time yesterday morning, and Rotterdam meal when imported from SA $3-5/ton higher.

• USDA US soybean export inspections as of April 11, 2019 were 460,667 tons, within a range of trade expectations, below 888,650 tons previous week and compares to 446,455 tons year ago. Major countries included China Main for 130,159 tons, Japan for 81,501 tons, and Mexico for 75,634 tons.

・         AgRural estimated 88 percent of the Brazilian soybean crop had been harvested, above 85 percent a year ago and 85 percent for the 5-year average.  Soybean production was projected by 114.6 million tons, up from 112.9 million tons from their previous estimate. 

・         The European Union reported soybean import licenses since July 1 at 11.387 million tons, above 10.460 million tons a year ago. European Union soybean meal import licenses are running at 13.611 million tons for 2018-19, below 15.023 million tons a year ago. EU palm oil import licenses are running at 5.064 million tons for 2018-19, down from 5.066 million tons a year ago.

・         The EU MARS crop service left unchanged its forecast for the 2019 EU rapeseed yield at 3.19 tons per hectare, 12 pct above 2018 but 1.3 pct below the five-year average.

・         NOPA released its US March crushing report. Soybean oil stocks of 1.761 billion pounds was reported 22 million pounds below expectations. And with a crush at 170.0 million bushels, 2.0 million bushels above expectations, coupled with a very high oil yield of 11.76 pounds per bushel, implied soybean oil demand was robust (biodiesel demand).  On a daily adjusted basis, the crush rate only fell 0.03 bu/day. The flooding during March across the US didn’t affect crush rates to the magnitude people thought. IA’s daily crush rate increased 0.1% from February.  IN, KY, OH and MI increased 2.7% and IL’s rate surged 5.6% from February.  Crush rates in the southeast and southwest declined 7.5 percent and 5.9 percent, respectively.  The March crush of 170.0 million bushels were 1.1 percent below March 2018. Soybean meal exports were good at 844,000 short tons, below 876,000 short tons for March 2018.  The soybean oil yield of 11.76 is the second largest for the month behind 11.94 in March 2013.

 

 

Export Developments

• None reported

 

Wheat

・         US wheat futures are lower in a turnaround Tuesday. Larger wheat crops are seen for France, Germany, and Russia versus last year. 

・         US winter wheat conditions were unchanged in the combined good/excellent categories at 60. The trade was looking for unchanged.  NE was down 6 and KS up 1.  IL and IN increase 4 points. 

・         Germany’s association of farm cooperatives (DRV) estimated the 2019 wheat crop up 20.6 percent to 24.44 million tons. The winter barley crop was projected to increase 34.6 percent to 9.92 million tons.

• USDA US all-wheat export inspections as of April 11, 2019 were 511,400 tons, within a range of trade expectations, below 554,883 tons previous week and compares to 504,956 tons year ago. Major countries included Philippines for 152,859 tons, Nigeria for 80,226 tons, and Mexico for 70,103 tons.

・         The EU MARS crop service lowered its forecast for the soft wheat yield to 6.01 tons per hectare from 6.04 last month, up 6.8 percent from 2018 and 1.2 percent above average. 

・         The European Union granted export licenses for 490,000 tons of soft wheat imports, bringing cumulative 2018-19 soft wheat export commitments to 16.060 million tons, down from 16.319 million tons committed at this time last year.

・         Black Sea Wheat (JUL) settled -3.00 at 190.00 as of the lack block trade at 6:41 CST.

・         May Paris wheat was down 0.50 euro at 188.50 euros.

 

 

 

Export Developments.

• Morocco’s ONICL seeks 363,636 tons of European Union soft wheat on April 25 for arrival in Morocco by May 31.
• The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association seeks 109,175 tons of grade 1 milling wheat from the United States on April 23 for shipping in two consignments from the U.S. Pacific Northwest coast. The first consignment of 54,175 tons is sought for shipment between June 7 and 21 and the second of 55,000 tons for shipment between June 22 and July 6. (Reuters)
• Jordan passed on 120,000 tons of optional origin milling wheat.
• Japan seeks 97,175 tons of food wheat on Thursday.

• China sold 3,448 tons of 2013 imported wheat or 0.71 percent of wheat was offered at auction from state reserves, at an average price of 2,181 yuan per ton.
• Japan under the SBS system seeks 120,000 tons of feed wheat and 200,000 tons of barley on April 17 for arrival by September 26.
• Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of barley on April 17.
• Ethiopia seeks 400,000 tons of wheat on April 19.
• Jordan seeks 25,000 tons of milling wheat on April 29 for LH July/FH August shipment.

・         Ethiopia seeks 600,000 tons of wheat on April 30.

 

Rice/Other

・         No updates