FW: FI Morning Grain Comments 05/13/19

PDF attached

 

Weather

 

·         US weather was about as expected over the weekend. Some areas of the Midwest saw unexpected rain.

·         Planting conditions improve this week but temperatures will remain on the cooler side early. By the weekend temperatures will be favorable. 

·         Rain increases later this week across the southern Great Plains.

·         Parts of the Canada’s Prairies are still too dry.

·         Europe will be mostly favorable.  Same goes for the CIS.

·         The North China Plains will remain abnormally dry while the northeast will see rain.

Source: World Weather Inc. and FI

 

Source: World Weather Inc. and FI

 

Source: World Weather Inc. and FI

 

Bloomberg Ag Calendar

MONDAY, MAY 13:

• USDA weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
• U.S. crop progress, winter wheat conditions, 4pm
• Ivory Coast cocoa arrivals
• EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• EARNINGS: JBS, Cosan, Cresud, Agrana

TUESDAY, MAY 14:

• EARNINGS: Minerva, Olam, Golden Agri

WEDNESDAY, MAY 15:

• Malaysia May 1-15 palm oil exports from AmSpec, Intertek and SGS
• New York Sugar & Ethanol Conference 2019
• BMO Capital Markets Annual Farm to Market Conference, New York, day 1
• EIA weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, output, 10:30am
• USDA soybean crush and corn for ethanol, 3pm
• FranceAgrimer updates French crop estimates
• EARNINGS: Marfrig

THURSDAY, MAY 16:

• Global Pig Industry Forum, Wuhan, China
• BMO Capital Markets Annual Farm to Market Conference, New York, day 2
• USDA weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, 8:30am
• Port of Rouen data on French grain exports
• Bloomberg weekly survey of analysts’ expectations on grain, sugar prices
• Earnings: Suedzucker, Cherkizovo

FRIDAY, MAY 17:

• Global Pig Industry Forum, Wuhan, China
• FranceAgriMer weekly update on French crop conditions
• ICE Futures Europe commitments of traders weekly report on coffee, cocoa, sugar positions, ~1pm (~6pm London)
• CFTC commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• EARNINGS: Deere, Cherkizovo

Source: Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

CFTC Commitment of Traders                                  

·         Traders missed estimating the traditional net short position in corn by a large 25k contracts for the week ending 5/7/2019 (more long).                             

·         They also missed soybean meal by 13.3k (more short).                         

·         A bunch of net short records were established for the week ending 5/7.                                 

Traditional funds futures only                             

            Soybeans   shy of the record net short by 824 lots         

            Corn          net short          (208,292)

            KC Wheat  shy of the record net short position by only 123 lots

Traditional funds futures & options combined                           

            Soybeans   net short          (140,424)

            KC Wheat  net short          (43,797)

Managed money futures only                             

            Soybeans   net short          (163,028)

            KC Wheat  net short          (59,759)

            MN Wheat just shy of record by 288 lots

Managed money futures & options combined                           

            Soybeans   net short          (160,553)

            KC Wheat  net short          (58,866)

            MN Wheat just shy of record by 282 lots

 

 

 

 

Macros

·         USD 19 points lower (7:322 am CT)

·         US DOW -476

·         Crude +$1.09

·         Gold -$3.90

·         China Is Said To Raise Tariffs On Some US Goods Starting June 1st – livesquawk

·         China Is Said To Raise Tariffs on $60Billion Of US Goods

·         China Is Said To Raise Tariffs On 2493 US Goods To 25% 

·         Additional Tariffs From Chine Will Not Include US Crude Oil

 

Corn.

·         US corn futures are at new contract lows. 

·         China is moving ahead on adding import tariffs against the US.

o   China Is Said To Raise Tariffs On Some US Goods Starting June 1st – livesquawk

o   China Is Said To Raise Tariffs on $60 Billion Of US Goods

o   China Is Said To Raise Tariffs On 2493 US Goods To 25% 

o   Additional Tariffs From Chine Will Not Include US Crude Oil

·         The USDA Secretary of Agriculture was asked by President Trump to create a price support plan for US farmers. Traders found this news more positive for soybeans than corn and wheat. 

 

Export Developments

• Delayed from May 8^th to May 15^th:  India’s MMTC seeks an unspecified amount of corn on May 15, valid until May 31 for shipment between June 10 and July 10.

 

Soybean complex.

• CBOT soybeans hit fresh 10-year lows on Monday after China slapped on additional import tariffs on US goods. China will include 2,493 products going to 25 percent as of June 1.  We don’t know if soybeans will remain at 25% but it might be safe to say they will be unchanged from current. One could argue the unchanged soybean import tariff will not change the current situation. 
• Germany’s rapeseed crop for 2019 could be reduced 28 percent to around 886,000 hectares, according to Germany’s national statistic’s office.
• Brazilian real is down sharply. (24.98 cents to USD)
• Offshore values early this morning was leading the soybean oil 32 points lower and meal $2.40 higher.

·         Malaysian palm markets: 

• China markets:

·         Our China cash crush margin calculation were last +18 cents and compares to +7 cents late last week and positive 44 cents year ago.

• Rotterdam vegetable oil prices were lower from this time yesterday morning and meal when imported from 3-9 euros lower.
• The US EPA may propose 2020 biofuel mandates at 20.04 billion gallons, up from 19.92 billion in 2019. Details were lacking as Reuters picked up the information from two sources. However, they found out:
  • 15 billion gallons of conventional, unchanged from 2019
  • 5.04 billion gallons of advanced biofuels, up from 4.92 billion in 2019
  • 540 million cellulosic
  • 4.5 billion non-cellulosic
  • 2.43 billion biodiesel for 2021, unchanged from 2020

 

Export Developments

• None reported

 

Wheat

·         CBOT July Chicago SRW wheat hit a new contract low. KC July wheat is at a new-crop low and MN July is near a contract low.

·         Russia exported 6.6 million tons of wheat during the Jan-March period, down from 9.7 million tons for the same period a year ago.

• Black Sea Wheat (JUL) settled Flat at 183.00.

·         September Paris wheat was down 1.25 euro to 167.75 as of 7:45 am Chicago time.

 

 

Export Developments.

• Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association seeks 111,050 tons of grade 1 milling wheat from the United States on May 21, for two consignments for shipment (July/Aug shipment).
• Ethiopia bought 400,000 tons of wheat for the original import tender that was to close April 19 for shipment 2 months after contract signing.

·         Algeria seeks 50,000 tons of milling wheat on Tuesday, valid until Wednesday.

• Jordan issued a new import tender for 120k milling wheat. Deadline is May 14. Possible shipment periods are Oct. 1-15, Oct. 16-31 and Nov. 1-15.
• Japan seeks another 120,000 tons of feed wheat and 200,000 tons of feed barley on May 15 for arrival in Japan by Oct. 31.

 

Rice/Other

·         Turkey seeks 48,000 tons of rice on May 16 for arrival/delivery between May 24 and June 24.

·         Egypt’s General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) seeks at least 20,000 tons of white on May 21 and the rice should arrive from July 25 to August 20. (Reuters)