From: Terry Reilly
Sent: Friday, July 13, 2018 8:26:07 AM (UTC-06:00) Central Time (US & Canada)
Subject: FI Morning Grain Comments 07/13/18
PDF attached
- US crop conditions on Monday are expected to be unchanged to down 1 in soybeans and corn, and unchanged in spring wheat. Winter wheat harvest could advance 15 percentage points.
- The US Midwest will be hot though the weekend.
- The US Midwest will see several rounds of timely rain are expected during the next two weeks, but not heavy in any locations. Some areas may receive multiple events, resulting in slowing of development.
- For areas that receive little or no precipitation, we believe crop stress is most vulnerable across eastern Kansas into Missouri and portions of southeastern Iowa and west-central Illinois. These areas show short top soil moisture, and should be monitored over the next couple of weeks.
- Rain prospects improve for the Delta.
- Periodic rainfall and warm temperatures should be good for summer crop development for US hard red wheat.
- There are no issues with Brazil second corn crop harvesting.
- Europe will continue to see net drying in parts of the northern and western growing regions, but in general weather is expected to improve this weekend into next week for many dry areas.
- Net drying is expected to persist across eastern Ukraine and in Russia’s southern, central and Volga regions.
- Australia will see an increase in net drying.
Source: World Weather Inc. and FI
SIGNIFICANT CORN AND SOYBEAN BELT PRECIPITATION EVENTS
WEST CORN BELT EAST CORN BELT
Tdy-Fri 60% cvg of up to 0.75” Mostly dry with a few
and local amts over 2.0”; insignificant showers
east-central S.D. to NE
Neb. wettest; SE and
far NW driest
Sat 30% cvg of up to 0.75” 25% cvg of up to 0.65”
and local amts to 1.75”; and local amts to 1.30”;
Iowa wettest north Il. wettest
Sun-Mon 70% cvg of up to 0.60”
and local amts to 1.40”;
far NW driest
Sun-Tue 90% cvg of up to 0.75”
and local amts to 2.0”;
driest north
Tue-Jul 19 50% cvg of up to 0.75”
and local amts to 2.0”;
wettest south
Wed-Jul 20 65% cvg of up to 0.75”
and local amts to 1.75”
Jul 20-21 35% cvg of up to 0.35”
and locally more;
wettest north
Jul 21-22 30% cvg of up to 0.25”
and locally more
Jul 22-23 5-20% daily cvg of up
to 0.30” and locally
more each day
Jul 23-24 5-20% daily cvg of up
to 0.30” and locally
more each day
Jul 24-26 60% cvg of up to 0.65”
and locally more
Jul 25-27 50% cvg of up to 0.40”
and locally more
U.S. DELTA/SOUTHEAST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS
DELTA SOUTHEAST
Tdy-Sun 20-40% daily cvg of
up to 0.75” and locally
more each day; rain
shifts from NE to SW
during the period
Tdy-Sun 5-20% daily cvg of up
up to 0.30” and locally
more each day
Mon-Tue 60% cvg of up to 0.60”
and local amts to 1.30”;
wettest north
Mon-Wed 75% cvg of up to 0.75”
and local amts to 1.75”
Wed 20% cvg of up to 0.30”
and locally more
Jul 19 15% cvg of up to 0.30”
and locally more
Jul 20-22 60% cvg of up to 0.75”
and local amts to 1.50”;
wettest north
Jul 21-22 70% cvg of up to 0.75”
and local amts to 1.75”
Jul 23-26 10-25% daily cvg of 13-35% daily cvg of
up to 0.30” and locally up to 0.35” and locally
more each day more each day
Source: World Weather Inc. and FI
Source: World Weather Inc. and FI
Bloomberg weekly agenda
FRIDAY, JULY 13:
- China’s General Administration of Customs releases preliminary commodity trade data for June, including soy and palm oil, 10pm ET Thursday (10am Beijing Friday)
- ICE Futures Europe commitments of traders weekly report on coffee, cocoa, sugar positions, ~1:30pm ET (~6:30pm London)
- CFTC commitments of traders weekly report for period ending July 10 on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
- FranceAgriMer weekly updates on French crop conditions
MONDAY, JULY 16:
- Japan on holiday; no rubber trading on Tokyo Commodity Exchange
- Cargo surveyors AmSpec and Intertek release their respective data on Malaysia’s July 1-15 palm oil exports, 11pm ET Sunday (11am Kuala Lumpur Monday); SGS data during same period, 3am ET Monday (3pm local time Monday)
- European Cocoa Association 2Q cocoa grind data, 2am ET (7am London)
- German Confectionery Industry 2Q cocoa grind data, 2am ET (7am London)
- USDA weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
- USDA weekly crop progress report, 4pm
- EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
- Ivory Coast weekly cocoa arrivals
TUESDAY, JULY 17:
- New Zealand dairy auction on Global Dairy Trade online market starts ~7am ET (~noon London, ~11pm Wellington)
WEDNESDAY, JULY 18:
- EIA U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, output, 10:30am
THURSDAY, JULY 19:
- Nicaragua on holiday
- USDA weekly net-export sales for corn, wheat, soy, cotton, 8:30am
- USDA red meat production for June, 3pm
- National Confectioners Association North America 2Q cocoa grind, ~4pm
- Port of Rouen data on French grain exports
- Buenos Aires Grain Exchange weekly crop report
- Bloomberg weekly survey of analysts’ expectations on grain, sugar prices
FRIDAY, JULY 20:
- Colombia on holiday
- Cocoa Association of Asia is set to release 2Q cocoa grind data
- ICE Futures Europe commitments of traders weekly report on coffee, cocoa, sugar positions, ~1:30pm ET (~6:30pm London)
- USDA milk production for June, 3pm
- USDA cattle on feed for June, 3pm
- CFTC commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
- FranceAgriMer weekly updates on French crop conditions
Source: Bloomberg and FI
・ Soybeans down 51 to 1377 (Utica, IL)
・ Rice down 79 to 264 (Orwell, AR)
Bloomberg weekly bull/bear survey (taken Wed.)
・ Soybeans: Bullish: 3 Bearish: 11 Neutral: 6
・ Wheat: Bullish: 6 Bearish: 5 Neutral: 9
・ Corn: Bullish: 7 Bearish: 9 Neutral: 4
・ Raw Sugar : Bullish: 2 Bearish: 3 Neutral: 4
・ White sugar: Bullish: 2 Bearish: 3 Neutral: 4
・ White-sugar premium: Widen: 2 Narrow: 2 Neutral: 5
・ US stocks are higher, USD higher, WTI crude higher, and gold mostly lower, at the time this was written.
・ US Import Price Index (m/m) June: -0.4% (est 0.1%, prev 0.6%)
– US Import Price Index Ex Petroleum (m/m) June: -0..3% (est 0.2%, prev0.1%)
– US Import Price Index (y/y) June: 4.3% (est 4.6%, prev 4.3%)
・ US Export Price Index (m/m) June: 0.3% (est 0.2%, prev 0.6%)
– US Export Index (y/y) June : 5.3 % (prev 4.9%)
Corn.
- Corn prices are lower from a higher USD and end of week profit taking.
- CBOT corn volume was above average overnight. December saw a wide range and there was good amount of spreading in CU/CZ and CZ/CH.
- China sold another 942,336 tons of corn out of reserves.
- France’s corn crop conditions as of July 9 fell one point from the previous week to 73 percent G/E.
- Baltic Dry Index was 34 points higher to 1,666, or 2.1%.
Applied Approved Pending
2016 20 19 0
2017 33 29 4
2018 0 na na
・ South Korea’s MFG bought 69,000 tons of optional origin corn at $204.95/ton c&f for arrival around December 23. Yesterday KFA and NOFI (69k) bought corn.
・ Taiwan’s MFIG bought 65,000 tons of US or Brazil origin corn at $1.6123/bu premium over the December contract, c&f for arrival after September.
・ China sold 942,336 tons of corn out of state reserves at an average price of 1417 yuan per ton or $212.49/ton, 23 percent of the total offered. Yesterday China sold 1.235 million tons of corn out of state reserves.
・ China sold about 52-53 million tons of corn this season.
Soybean complex.
・ Soybean futures are trading lower on follow through bearish sentiment from the July 12 USDA report. Lower values in China and Malaysia are weighing on the soybean complex. The USD is trading sharply higher.
・ August CBOT crush was sitting at 208.
・ China imported 8.70 million tons of soybean in June, down from 9.68 million tons in May but up 13 percent from June 2017. June edible vegetable oil imports were 529,000 tons, off nearly 12 percent from May.
・ Nearby rolling China soybean futures hit a 10-year low. The combination of slowing soybean meal demand, higher 2018 domestic soybean production, and successful state reserve sales of soybeans, contributed to the price declines.
・ September China cash crush margins were last running at 39 cents, down from 51 yesterday and compares to 56 cents last week and 84 a year ago.
・ Rotterdam vegetable oils were mixed and SA soybean meal when delivered into Rotterdam were 2-3 euros lower as of early morning CT time.
・ Palm oil prices are nearing a 3-year low.
・ September Malaysian palm was 39 lower at MYR2147 and cash down $10.00 at $558.75.
・ Offshore values were leading soybean oil 4 points lower (65 lower for the week to date) and meal $3.60/short ton lower (nearly $4.00 lower for the week).
・ NOPA is due out with the US soybean crush on Monday, July 16.
- Results awaited: Iran seeks 30,000 tons of sunflower oil on July 10.
- Results awaited: Iran seeks 30,000 tons of palm olein oils on July 10.
- Iran seeks 30,000 tons of soybean oil on August 1.
- China will offer 61,000 tons of rapeseed oil on July 17.
・ China sold 832,302 tons of soybeans out of reserves so far, this season.
・ US Chicago and KC wheat futures are higher on follow through buying after USDA lowered several production estimates on Thursday for major exporting countries. The USD is trading sharply higher.
・ Russia’s AgMin said the wheat production at 64.4 million tons, grain production at 100 million, and total loss of the crops this year around 30 million tons. USDA is using 67 million tons for Russia wheat.
・ The Rosario Exchange lifted their Argentina wheat area by 180,000 hectares to 6.18 million hectares. Good weather this week allowed Argentina wheat plantings and establishment to advance. They estimate production at record 20 million tons, above the previous record of 18.2 million in 2016-17.
- France’s soft wheat crop conditions as of July 9 fell one point from the previous week to 73 percent G/E. 20 percent of the soft wheat crop had been harvested, up from 3 percent for the previous week. Spring barley fell one point to 75.
- December Paris wheat was up 2.25 euros to 185.50 euros during early US trading hours.
- The USDA Attaché updated their S&D’s for Ukraine and they see the wheat crop for 2018-19 at 25.740 million tons, below USDA’s June official forecast of 26.500 million tons. https://gain.fas.usda.gov/Recent%20GAIN%20Publications/Grain%20and%20Feed%20Update_Kiev_Ukraine_7-6-2018.pdf
・ the Ukrainian Grain Association estimated the 2018-19 Ukraine wheat crop at 25 million tons, from 25.8 million earlier this month.
- China sold 2,660 tons of 2013 wheat from state reserves at auction at an average price of 2250 yuan/per ton or $336.65/ton, 0.15 percent of what was offered.
・ Results awaited: Saudi Arabia seeks 595,000 tons of wheat.
・ Results awaited: Saudi Arabia seeks 1,740,000 million tons of fodder barley during the period September-October 2018.
- Japan in a SBS import tender seeks 120,000 tons of feed wheat and 200,000 tons of barley on July 18 for arrival by December 28.
・ Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of barley for Oct/Nov shipment on July 17.
・ Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of wheat on July 19 for Oct-Nov shipment.
- Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons of optional origin milling wheat on July 25 for shipment within 40 days of contract signing.
Rice/Other
・ Results awaited: Mauritius seeks 6,000 tons of white rice for Sep 1-Nov 30 shipment.
- Thailand seeks to sell 120,000 tons of raw sugar on July 18.
Terry Reilly
Senior Commodity Analyst C Grain and Oilseeds
Futures International │190 S LaSalle St., Suite 410│Chicago, IL 60603
W: 312.604.1366
AIM: fi_treilly
ICE IM: treilly1
Skype: fi.treilly
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AMcom071318.pdf