FW: FI Morning Grain Comments 09/26/18

PDF attached

 

Weather and crop conditions

·         Traders are starting to build a weather premium into the agriculture markets citing harvesting delays in Canada and US.

·         Frequent showers will occur in the Delta this week.

·         The Midwest will also be active which should slow harvesting before a couple more days of net drying occurs outside the Ohio River Valley region.

·         HRW wheat areas will see a mixture of sunshine and rain.

·         Improving weather across Europe and the CIS is bearish for wheat.

·         SA weather looks good.

·         Canada is seeing too much precipitation in form of snow and rain, and temperatures will remain cool.

 

SIGNIFICANT CORN AND SOYBEAN BELT PRECIPITATION EVENTS

                                WEST CORN BELT                             EAST CORN BELT              

Wed                                                                                      15% cvg of up to 0.20”

                                                                                                and locally more;

                                                                                                wettest SE

Wed-Thu             35% cvg of up to 0.20”

                                and locally more;

                                driest south

Thu                                                                                        Mostly dry with a few

                                                                                                insignificant showers

Fri-Sat                   40% cvg of up to 0.65”                    35% cvg of up to 0.65”

                                and local amts to 1.25”;                 and local amts to 1.20”;

                                Ia. wettest                                          north Il. to Mi. wettest

Sun                                                                                        20% cvg of up to 0.20”

                                                                                                and locally more;

                                                                                                north and west wettest

Sun-Mon             70% cvg of up to 0.75”

                                and local amts to 1.50”;

                                wettest NE

Mon-Oct 2                                                                          80% cvg of up to 0.75”   

                                                                                                and local amts to 1.50”

Oct 2-4                  75% cvg of up to 0.75”

                                and local amts to 2.0”;

                                far NW driest

Oct 3-4                                                                                  80% cvg of up to 0.75”

                                                                                                and local amts to 2.0”

Oct 5-9                  Up to 20% daily cvg of                    Up to 20% daily cvg of

                                up to 0.20” and locally                    up to 0.20” and locally   

                                more each day                                  more each day                  

 

U.S. DELTA/SOUTHEAST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS

                                DELTA                                                   SOUTHEAST

Tdy-Wed             85% cvg of 0.30-1.10”                    

                                with lighter rain in a few

                                areas and local amts over

                                2.0”; driest north                             

Tdy-Thu                                                                               90-100% cvg of 0.15-1.10”

                                                                                                and local amts to 2.0”

                                                                                                with some 2.0-3.50”

                                                                                                amts in the west;

                                                                                                driest SE

Thu-Sat                10-25% daily cvg of

                                up to 0.35” and locally

                                more each day;

                                wettest south

Fri-Sat                                                                                   20-40% daily cvg of

                                                                                                up to 0.60” and locally

                                                                                                more each day

Sun-Oct 2            5-20% daily cvg of up                      5-20% daily cvg of up

                                to 0.20” and locally                          to 0.20” and locally

                                more each day;                                 more each day

                                wettest north

Oct 3-4                  80% cvg of up to 0.65”                    70% cvg of up to 0.65”

                                and local amts to 1.40”                   and local amts to 1.40”

Oct 5-9                  Up to 20% daily cvg of                    5-20% daily cvg of up

                                up to 0.25” and locally                    to 0.25” and locally         

                                more each day                                  more each day

Source: World Weather Inc. and FI

 

Bloomberg weekly agenda

WEDNESDAY, SEPT. 26:

• EIA U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, output, 10:30am
• FOMC rate decision, 2pm; analysts expect the Fed to raise U.S. interest rates by 25 basis points
• South African crop estimates
• Globoil international vegetable oil conference in Mumbai, Sept. 26-28
  • Commerce Minister Suresh Prabhu and Food Minister Ram Vilas Paswan are expected to attend, along with Oil World Executive Director Thomas Mielke, Godrej Director Dorab Mistry, Sunvin CEO Sandeep Bajoria
• S&P Platts Kingsman sugar conference in Miami, final day, with speakers from Bonsucro, ALESA, Indian Sugar Exim Corp., Central American Sugar Assoc., Avenzza

THURSDAY, SEPT. 27:

• USDA weekly net-export sales for corn, wheat, soy, cotton, 8:30am
• USDA hogs & pigs inventory for 3Q, 3pm
• USDA agriculture prices received for August, 3pm
• International Grains Council monthly report
• Port of Rouen data on French grain exports
• Buenos Aires Grain Exchange weekly crop report
• Bloomberg weekly survey of analysts’ expectations on grain, sugar prices
• Globoil vegetable oil conference in Mumbai, 2nd day of 3
• EARNINGS: Cargill

FRIDAY, SEPT. 28:

• USDA grain stockpiles for 3Q, including corn, soy, wheat, barley, noon
• USDA wheat production report for September, noon
• Polish crop estimates
• FranceAgriMer weekly updates on French crop conditions
• Globoil vegetable oil conference in Mumbai, final day
• ICE Futures Europe commitments of traders weekly report on coffee, cocoa, sugar positions, ~1:30pm ET (~6:30pm London)
• CFTC commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm

Source: Bloomberg and FI

 

Registrations

·         Ethanol down 103 to 436

 

 

Macros.

·         US stocks are higher, USD lower, WTI crude lower, and gold lower, at the time this was written. (8:00 am CT)

 

Corn.

• Corn is lower but that should change on expectations for CBOT soybeans to rally further from their 4.25-4.75 cent higher trade at the electronic break. 
• News for corn is light.
• Baltic Dry Index is up 3.7 percent or 53 points to 1503 points.
• A Bloomberg survey calls for weekly US ethanol production to decline to 1.027 million barrels per day from 1.051 million last week, and stocks to decline to 22.700 million from 22.746 million week earlier.

 

Export Developments

·         China will sell 8 million tons of corn for the week ending September 28.

·         China sold nearly 84 million tons of corn out of reserves this season.

 

 

Soybean complex.

·         The soybean complex is higher in part on higher China values and strong US soybean sales to Mexico.

·         Traders are slowly building a weather premium into the agriculture markets as wet weather later this week into all next week should slow US harvest progress.

·         Look for soybeans to trade higher at the day session open from their 4.25-4.75 cent higher lead.

·         There is speculation China may still turn to the US for soybeans as Brazil and Argentina may soon run out of supplies for export.  Yesterday there was talk Brazil may have to import 1 million tons of US soybeans after overselling their current crop to China.

·         China soybean meal was up 1.0% or 32 yuan/ton to 3296, and leading CBOT meal $2.60 higher.

·         China soybean meal inventories fell 70,000 tons from the previous week to 890,000 tons (CNGOIC).

·         Next week China is on a week-long holiday.

·         China soybeans were 0.1% higher and China soybean oil 64 higher or 1.1%. China palm was up 0.6% or 30 yuan higher.

·         China soybean crush margins on our analysis are running at 143 cents, up from 141 cents last session and compares to 115 late last week and 85 cents a year ago.

·         Malaysia December palm oil was up 9 (for the 3^rd straight day) and leading SBO 5 lower. Malaysian cash palm oil was unchanged.

·         Strong Malaysian palm oil exports are countering with rising palm production.

·         Govindbhai Patel estimated India will need to import a record 15.2 million tons of edible vegetable oils during the November 2018-October 2019 period, based on several elements including a 2.1% increase in domestic consumption and 9 percent shortfall in normal rainfall 

·         Rotterdam oils were higher and SA soybean meal when imported into Rotterdam higher. 

·         Offshore values were suggesting a higher lead for US soybean meal by $0.80 and higher lead in SBO by 7 points.

·         The Argentina vessel lineup shows one more soybean cargo is set to load and leave soon for China.

·         Soybean planting progress just started in Mato Grosso but more rain may be needed in October, according to the local AgMin, Imea.

·         Parana, Brazil is 18 percent complete on soybean planting progress. Three-year average is 7 percent.

·         Brazil’s Agribrasil calculated 1.0 million tons of soybeans will be imported from the US to make up for insufficient supplies. They have Brazil exports at 80 million tons (68MMT last year), and crush at 41.5 MMT (41.8 last year). 

·         Canola harvest progress in Manitoba, Canada, are about 85 percent harvested and soybeans are 30 percent complete.

 

Export Developments

• Under the 24-hour announcement system, US exporters sold 650,387 tons of soybeans for delivery to Mexico during the 2018-19 marketing year.
• China sold 600 tons of 2011 imported soyoil from auction of state reserves at an average price of 5,000 yuan ($727.45) per ton, 2.05 percent of total soyoil available at the auction.
• China sold 100,642 tons of 2013 soybeans at auction of state reserves at average price of 3,051 yuan ($443.89) per ton, 100 percent of total 2013 soybean available for the auction.
• China sold about 2.5MMT of soybean out of reserves this season.
• China will offer 100,000 tons of soybeans out of reserves on October 10.
• Results awaited: Iran seeks 30,000 tons of sunflower oil on September 24.
• Yesterday Egypt’s GASC bought 30,000 tons of soyoil and 21,500 tons of sunflower oil for arrival between Oct. 25 and Nov. Soybean oil was bought at $698.70/ton. Sunflower oil was bought at $719/ton.

 

Wheat

·         US wheat is struggling higher on steady but strong global import demand. 

·         Paris wheat is higher on a lower EU, although the currency remains near a 3-year high against the USD.

• Ukraine will keep its export caps on for milling and feed wheat at 8 million tons, each.

 

Export Developments.

·         Turkey bought 252,000 tons of red milling wheat at $232.90/ton c&f for October 2-22 loading.

• Jordan passed on 120,000 tons of barley.
• Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of feed wheat, optional origin, on September 27.
• Japan in a SBS import tender passed on 120,000 tons of feed wheat and 200,000 tons of barley for arrival by late February. 
• Japan in a SBS import tender seeks 120,000 tons of feed wheat and 200,000 tons of barley on October 10 for arrival by late February. 
• Japan seeks 109,150 tons of food wheat on Thursday. Original details as follows.

·         China sells 1,787 tons of imported 2013 wheat at auction of state reserves at an average price of 2,144 yuan ($311.93) per ton, 0.19 percent of total wheat available at the auction.

·         China sells 126,652 tons of wheat at auction of state reserves at an average price of 2,409 yuan ($350.63) per ton, 6.31 percent of total wheat available at the auction.

• Results awaited: UAE seeks 60,000 tons of wheat on September 24 for Oct/Nov shipment.
• Results awaited: Ethiopia seeks 200,000 tons of milling wheat for shipment two months after contract signing. Ethiopia got offers from 7 firms. Lowest offer was for 100,000 tons at $272.05/ton, c&f.
• Canadian wheat is the lowest offer in Iraq’s import tender. Lowest was $337/ton. Offers valid until September 27.  Iraq needs wheat for four after Turkey restricted flour shipments.
• Morocco seeks 336,364 tons of US durum wheat on September 28 for arrival by December 31.
• Bahrain seeks 25,000 tons of wheat on October 2 for Nov shipment.
• Taiwan seeks 110,000 tons of US wheat on October 2 for Nov-Dec shipment.
• Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons of 12.5 percent wheat on October 9, optional origin.

 

Rice/Other

·         Iraq bought at least 60,000 tons of rice from Vietnam at $577/ton c&f.

·         Thailand sold rice to China for the first time in six years.

·         Mauritius seeks 9,000 tons of rice for delivery between Nov. 15, 2018, and March 31, 2019, set to close is Sept. 27.