FW: FI Morning Grain Comments 10/03/18

PDF attached

 

Weather and crop conditions

·         Rain overnight was heavy across lower WI and far northern IL.

·         6-12 inches of rain could fall across the heart of the US over the next several days, according to the European model.

·         New Zealand’s National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research predicted a 68% chance of El Nino developing during the October-December and 71% during the April–June 2019 period.

·         Additional showers will fall across the northern areas of the US Midwest Wednesday and showers appear across the central areas Thursday, and northwestern areas Friday into Saturday. The Plains will see follow up rain in the northern areas Thur-Fri.

·         US crop conditions were unchanged in soybeans and corn, down one in sorghum, and up 3 for cotton. Corn harvest progress was up 10 points to 26, at trade expectations. Soybean harvest were 23 percent, up 9 points, and 4 points below expectations. Winter wheat plantings were 15 percent, one point below trade expectations.

·         The Midwest will be wet Thursday into mid-next week, bias WCB. The rain will delay harvesting efforts and raise concerns over quality for corn and soybeans. There will be an important period of drier weather October 10-15, which will be needed for producers.

·         This week the Delta will be on the drier side. Showers will fall in the lower Midwest and Tennessee River Basin. Overall fieldwork activity across the Delta should improve.

·         Rain will fall from the southwestern desert areas through the northern Plains early to mid-week this week.

·         The Canada Prairies will be cold this week.

·         Brazil will see rain in the central and southern growing areas (MG, MGDS, Goias, Parana) this week while Argentina will be dry through Saturday.

 

 

 

SIGNIFICANT CORN AND SOYBEAN BELT PRECIPITATION EVENTS

                        WEST CORN BELT              EAST CORN BELT  

     -Wed         65% cvg of up to 0.50”          

                        and local amts to 1.10”;          

                        wettest NE

Wed-Thu                                                         75% cvg of up to 0.55”

                                                                        and local amts to 1.10”;

                                                                        wettest west

Thu-Sat            80% cvg of 0.50-1.50”

                        and local amts to 3.0”

                        from Ks. to north Mo.

                        to far south Wi. with

                        up to 0.75” and locally

                        more elsewhere; S.D.

                        and Neb. driest

Fri-Sun                                                             80% cvg of up to 0.75”

                                                                        and local amts to 2.0”;

                                                                        west and north wettest;

                                                                        driest SE

Sun-Oct 9        85% cvg of up to 0.75”          

                        and local amts over 2.0”

                        with a few bands of

                        2.0-3.50” and locally

                        more

Mon                                                                 15% cvg of up to 0.20”

                                                                        and locally more          

Oct 9-11                                                          80% cvg of up to 0.75”

                                                                        and local amts to 2.0”;

                                                                        wettest west; driest SE

Oct 10              20% cvg of up to 0.50”

                        and locally more;

                        wettest south

Oct 11-13        65% cvg of up to 0.75”

                        and local amts to 1.50”

Oct 12-14                                                        70% cvg of up to 0.75”

                                                                        and local amts to 1.50”

Oct 14-16        Up to 20% daily cvg of

                        up to 0.25” and locally                       

                        more each day

Oct 15-16                                                        Up to 20% daily cvg of

                                                                        up to 0.25” and locally                        

                                                                        more each day

 

U.S. DELTA/SOUTHEAST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS

                        DELTA                                   SOUTHEAST

Wed-Fri           Up to 15% daily cvg of           Up to 20% daily cvg of

                        up to 0.20” and locally            up to 0.20” and locally

                        more each day; some               more each day; some

                        days may be dry                      days may be dry                     

Sat                   70% cvg of up to 0.75”

                        and local amts to 1.50”;

                        wettest south

Sat-Sun                                                            5-20% daily cvg of up

                                                                        to 0.30” and locally

                                                                        more each day

Sun-Oct 10      5-20% daily cvg of up

                        to 0.30” and locally

                        more each day

Mon-Oct 11                                                     10-25% daily cvg of

                                                                        Up to 0.40” and locally

                                                                        more each day

Oct 11-13        60% cvg of up to 0.50”

                        and local amts to 1.10”

Oct 12-14                                                        50% cvg of up to 0.50”

                                                                        and local amts to 1.10”

Oct 14-16        Up to 20% daily cvg of

                        up to 0.20” and locally

                        more each day

Oct 15-16                                                        Up to 20% daily cvg of

                                                                        up to 0.20” and locally           

                                                                        more each day

Source: World Weather Inc. and FI

 

Bloomberg weekly agenda

WEDNESDAY, OCT. 3:

• EIA U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, output, 10:30am

THURSDAY, 0CT. 4:

• FAO food index for September, 4am ET (9am London)
• USDA weekly net-export sales for corn, wheat, soy, cotton, 8:30am
• Port of Rouen data on French grain exports
• Buenos Aires Grain Exchange weekly crop report
• Bloomberg weekly survey of analysts’ expectations on grain, sugar prices

FRIDAY, OCT. 5:

• FranceAgriMer weekly updates on French crop conditions
• ICE Futures Europe commitments of traders weekly report on coffee, cocoa, sugar positions, ~1:30pm ET (~6:30pm London)
• CFTC commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm

Source: Bloomberg and FI

 

Registrations

·         SBO down 42 to 3677 – AG Processing, Emmetsburg, IA

 

Deliveries

·         SBM 210– Bunge stopped 75, ABM issued 209

·         SBO 779 – no apparent commercial stoppers

 

 

Macros.

·         US stocks are higher, USD higher, WTI crude higher, and gold mixed, at the time this was written. (7:50 am CT)

·         US ADP National Employment (Sep): 230K (est 185K, prev R 168K)

 

Corn.

• Corn futures are lower on weakness in wheat and light selling. Slow harvest progress this week across the US Midwest may create a two-sided trade.
• News in the corn market is again light.
• China will see heavy rain this week across the NE growing areas.
• Baltic Dry Index is up 4 points at 1,574 points.

 

Export Developments

·         China will sell 8 million tons of corn for the week ending October 5.

·         China sold about 85.5 million tons of corn out of reserves this season and some are predicting up to 100 million tons will be sold by the end of the marketing season.

 

 

Soybean complex.

·         The soybean complex is higher on follow through short covering.

·         Rain overnight was heavy across lower WI and far northern IL.

·         6-12 inches of rain could fall across the heart of the US over the next several days, according to the European model.

·         Lack of selling by US producers is supportive for CBOT futures.

·         We see resistance in Dec soybean oil at 30 cents.

·         China is on holiday all week. 

·         Malaysia December palm oil was higher by 39MYR and leading SBO 8 points higher. Malaysian cash palm oil was up 6.25 at $560.00/ton.

·         Rotterdam oils were largely unchanged and SA soybean meal when imported into Rotterdam mixed. 

·         Offshore values were suggesting a lower lead for US soybean meal by $0.90 and lower lead in SBO by 18 points.

 

Export Developments

• China will offer 100,000 tons of soybeans out of reserves on October 10.

 

Wheat

·         Wheat is mostly lower on easing Russian shipment concerns.

·         Now Russia’s agriculture quality control government arm (Rosselkhoznadzor) came out today and said they have no plans to suspend wheat exports.  Yesterday newswires picked up they could temporary suspend 30 grain loading points in two of Russia’s top grain exporting regions of Krasnodar and Rostov over violation of phytosanitary rules, lasting up to 90 days. In our comment yesterday, we mentioned even with such a suspension, it would not change our outlook for the Russian wheat export projection for the 2018-19 crop year of 36 million tons (1 MMT higher than USDA).

·         Algeria may soon buy Russian wheat, which would be a monumental shift from traditional supplier Europe.

• France will see rain by the end of the week into next week. Eastern Australia may see some rain across NSW and southern Queensland this week. Traders should monitor a potential significant rain event in far southern Brazil Saturday into Sunday which could negatively impact wheat conditions.

 

Export Developments.

• Japan in a SBS import tender bought 22,730 tons of feed wheat and 41,460 tons of barley for arrival by late February. 
• Turkey bought 138,000 tons of barley. Lowest price was $250/ton. Details are lacking.
• Tunisia seeks optional origin 50,000 tons of durum wheat, 75,000 tons of soft wheat and 50,000 tons of feed barley, on Oct. 3.
• Libya seeks 1 million tons of Russian wheat.
• Bahrain seeks 25,000 tons of wheat on October 2 for Nov shipment.
• Jordan retendered for another 100,000 tons of feed barley on October 3.
• Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons of 12.5 percent wheat on October 9, optional origin.
• Japan in a SBS import tender seeks 120,000 tons of feed wheat and 200,000 tons of barley on October 10 for arrival by late February. 
• Postponed: UAE seeks 60,000 tons of wheat for Oct/Nov shipment.

 

Rice/Other

·         Thailand seeks to sell 120,000 tons of sugar on October 3.

·         The Philippines seek 250,000 tons of rice on October 18 for arrival by late November.

·         Mauritius seeks 9,000 tons of rice for delivery between Nov. 15, 2018, and March 31, 2019, set to close is Sept. 27.