FW: FI Morning Grain Comments 12/27/19

PDF attached

 

Morning. 
USD is taking a big hit today, allowing for some currencies to gain over it, including the Brazilian real. 

 

 

 

Weather

The
US will see a large storm with big snow accumulations from parts of Nebraska to the eastern Dakotas and parts of Minnesota.

 

From
World Weather Inc.

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS: 

Brazil
and Argentina weather will be changing and the change will be good for a while with rain in the northeast of Brazil and in southwestern Argentina. However, drying in southern Brazil and Paraguay may eventually bring on some crop stress and the same may occur
in northern Argentina. Southwestern Argentina where it has been dry for so long could get flooding rainfall little later next week.

            South
Africa rainfall will be erratic over the next ten days leaving some areas a little too dry while some beneficial crop and field conditions evolve in other areas.

            Eastern
Australia’s summer coarse grain and oilseed crops have been stressed in recent heat and dryness, but irrigated areas remain in the best shape. Rain Tuesday into Wednesday was likely too close to the coast to benefit very many crops, but some eastern sorghum
might benefit from a little rain this workweek. Temperatures will not be as oppressively hot over the next ten days in eastern crop areas.

            Winter
rapeseed conditions have not changed much in Europe central Asia of China, but some rain in each of these areas will either improve crop conditions later this week or in the spring when seasonal warming returns.

            Late
season harvest progress in the U.S. will not likely advance very much after the weekend because of the latest winter storm producing snow in the northwest and abundant rain elsewhere.

            Overall,
weather today will likely support a mixed influence on market mentality.

 

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR WHEAT: 

Winter
wheat conditions in the west-central and southwestern U.S. Plains may improve later this week if the weekend storm occurs as advertised. The region needs moisture for improved crop establishment in the spring.

            Additional
rain in the Midwest this weekend and early next week will maintain wet field conditions in soft red wheat production areas. Crop conditions will not change much, although rising soil temperatures may reduce winter hardiness as this week moves along especially
in the south.

           
Argentina wheat harvesting will advance relatively well for a little while longer as rainfall continues erratic and light. However, a boost in precipitation coming next week will set back late season harvesting and could raise some grain quality issues in
a few areas. Much of this year’s crop has already been harvested.

            Turkey
will receive some additional needed rain over the next several days improving wheat establishment potential. Most other areas in the Middle East have seen a good mix of weather this season and will get additional moisture next week. Syria and Turkey need rain
most.

            Winter
crops in Eastern Europe and the western CIS will not be vulnerable to any winterkill in the next ten days as temperatures remain near to above average. Snow cover remains minimal

            North
Africa wheat is rated favorably, but more rain is needed in southwestern Morocco, Tunisia and some interior eastern Algeria locations.

            Recent
rain in Spain and Portugal has improved winter crop prospects for early spring crop development in February. Additional rain would be welcome.

           
Overall, weather today will likely produce a slightly bearish bias to market mentality.

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

FRIDAY,
Dec. 27:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, 8:30am
• EIA
  U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 11am
• U.S.
  agricultural prices paid, received, 3pm
• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report on coffee, cocoa, sugar positions ~1:30pm (~6:30pm London)

SATURDAY,
Dec. 28:

• Nothing
  major scheduled

SUNDAY,
Dec. 29:

• Nothing
  major scheduled

MONDAY,
Dec. 30:

• USDA
  weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm

TUESDAY
DECEMBER 31

• AmSpec
  releases Malaysia’s Dec. 1-31 palm oil export data, 10pm Monday (11am Kuala Lumpur); SGS data due at 3pm KL

WEDNESDAY,
Jan. 1:

• Nothing
  major scheduled

THURSDAY,
Jan. 2:

• Australia
  commodity index
• USDA
  Soybean crush, DDGS production, corn for ethanol, 3pm

FRIDAY,
Jan. 3:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, 8:30am
• EIA
  U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 11am
• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report on coffee, cocoa, sugar positions ~1:30pm (~6:30pm London)

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

USDA
export sales. Low
soybeans and corn export sales. Meal was low while soybean oil was very good.  All-wheat was good as well.  Pork sales were 16,400 tons.  China net sales for sorghum of 75,800 tons included 66k switched from unknown. 

 

Market
impact: Friendly soybean oil.  Slightly negative soybeans.  Negative corn. 
Positive wheat. 

 

 

 

 

Macros.

 

 

Corn.

·        
CBOT corn is higher, but gains are limited on follow through soybean/corn and wheat/corn spreading.

·        
USDA export sales for corn were on the low end of expectations.

·        
The western US will see good precipitation over the next 5 days. 

·        
A Bloomberg poll looks for weekly US ethanol production to be unchanged at 1.064 million barrels from the previous week and stocks to increase 70,000 barrels to 21.877 million.

 

Export
Developments

·        
Taiwan’s MFIG bought 65,000 tons of corn from Argentina at a premium of 156.75 U.S. cents c&f over the July for shipment between March 26 and April 14.

• Results
  awaited: India’s NAFED seeks 100,000 tons of corn from Ukraine on December 3 with offers valid until December 24 for shipment between Jan. 10 and Jan. 31. 
  

 

 

 

Soybean
complex.

·        
Soybean oil led continues to lead soybeans higher.  Malaysian palm oil prices were on fire again.  The March soybean oil contract hit another contract high of 35.18 today.  Although we are bullish vegetable
oils in general, we think its temporarily overbought.  As of Wednesday evening, we estimated the managed money net long position in soybean oil at 103,000 contracts.

·        
Soybeans are near a 7-week high and meal continues to struggle from product spreading.   Soybeans sold off a little after USDA export sales. 

·        
USDA export sales were poor for soybeans, a reminder demand is not living up to trade expectations.  Soybean meal sales were low while soybean oil was very good. 

·        
Phase one of the deal could be signed as early as the end of this month. 

• Rotterdam
  vegetable oils this morning were about 20 euros higher for nearby soybean oil positions and 10-15 higher for rapeseed oil. Rotterdam meal when imported from SA were mostly unchanged to 5 euros higher. 
  

·        
Offshore values are leading CBOT soybean oil 3 points higher (9 lower week to date) and meal $2.30 higher ($6.00 lower week to date).  

·        
China cash crush was last 131 cents per bushel (124 on Thur), compared to 160 on Friday and negative 21 cents year ago. 

·        
China:

·        
3-year high. Malaysian palm markets:
 

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

• None
  reported

 

Second
month rolling oil share

Source:
Refiniv and FI          

 

 

Wheat

·        
Wheat is higher on global export developments and hope China will buy US wheat.  A market letter circulating talked about China buying 5-6 million tons of US wheat.  We will wait to see if a formal announcement
will be made later. 

·        
USD is sharply lower, supporting wheat. 

·        
USDA export sales for wheat were good.  

·        
March Paris wheat futures earlier were up 1.50 at 188.75 euros.

·        
Morocco will lower its import duty on soft wheat early January.  They tendered for about 355,000 tons of durum wheat on January 9 for arrival by May 31.

·        
Russian wheat exports crop-year to date (local) are running about 13 percent below year ago. 

 

 

Export
Developments.

• Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of wheat on January 7.
  
• Morocco seeks to import about 355,000 tons of US durum wheat on January 9 for arrival by May 31.
  
• Mauritius seeks 95,000 tons of optional origin wheat flour on Jan. 10, 2020, for shipment between July 1, 2020,
  and June 20, 2021. 

·        
Syria seeks 200,000 tons of soft wheat from Russia on January 20, 2020. 

 

Rice/Other

• Results awaited: South Korea is in for 42,222 tons of rice for April-June arrival on Dec 27. Reuters:
  

Details of the tender are as follows:

    TONNES(M/T)    GRAIN TYPE      ARRIVAL/PORT

         3,000     Milled Long     April 30, 2020/Busan

        17,000     Milled Medium   June 30, 2020/Busan

        22,222     Brown Medium    June 30, 2020/Busan

• Syria seeks 45,000 tons of white rice on Jan. 6, 2020.  (Reuters) Short grain white rice of third or fourth class
  was sought. No specific country of origin was specified in the tender, traders said.  Some 25,000 tons was sought for supply 90 days after confirmation of the order and 20,000 tons 180 days after supply of the first consignment.  The rice was sought packed
  in bags and offers should be submitted in euros.  A previous tender from the agency for 45,000 tons of rice with similar conditions had closed on
  Nov. 13.

 

 

U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING 12/19/2019

	CURRENT MARKETING YEAR						NEXT MARKETING YEAR
COMMODITY	NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES		WEEKLY EXPORTS	ACCUMULATED EXPORTS		NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES
		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO
	THOUSAND METRIC TONS
WHEAT
HRW	225.9	1,489.2	1,725.1	177.6	5,312.1	3,519.8	0.0	0.0
SRW	54.5	557.7	846.1	38.3	1,523.3	1,366.5	0.0	4.2
HRS	200.4	1,385.5	1,679.9	189.1	3,821.1	3,676.6	0.0	4.8
WHITE	167.9	1,103.9	1,116.2	92.0	2,581.9	2,836.2	0.0	0.0
DURUM	66.4	195.6	95.0	11.3	571.5	323.4	41.0	41.0
TOTAL	715.0	4,731.9	5,462.2	508.3	13,809.8	11,722.5	41.0	49.9
BARLEY	0.0	31.5	31.3	0.7	27.4	26.3	0.0	0.0
CORN	624.8	9,895.6	13,728.8	331.7	7,927.6	17,595.7	1.4	807.0
SORGHUM	43.6	593.5	139.0	146.7	493.4	316.7	0.0	0.0
SOYBEANS	736.2	9,316.9	13,904.4	1,007.3	19,844.3	16,025.3	11.1	178.4
SOY MEAL	138.0	3,022.0	4,197.4	169.8	2,421.9	2,546.9	0.0	85.8
SOY OIL	37.4	186.7	212.7	14.5	240.9	175.0	0.0	0.5
RICE
L G RGH	43.1	328.5	231.7	30.7	618.4	555.6	0.0	0.0
M S RGH	0.0	15.4	17.4	0.1	15.4	10.2	0.0	0.0
L G BRN	0.4	22.4	5.5	0.6	17.8	24.2	0.0	0.0
M&S BR	0.1	52.2	9.0	4.5	6.8	43.1	0.0	0.0
L G MLD	2.4	193.4	146.3	40.9	444.2	348.0	0.0	0.0
M S MLD	16.4	150.6	182.4	29.0	239.0	185.1	0.0	0.0
TOTAL	62.3	762.5	592.3	105.7	1,341.6	1,166.2	0.0	0.0
COTTON		THOUSAND RUNNING BALES
UPLAND	135.1	7,527.3	7,148.8	202.1	3,700.9	3,202.0	-9.3	978.0
PIMA	19.3	172.5	309.0	8.4	160.8	143.9	0.0	34.4

 

Export Sales Highlights   

 

This summary is based on reports from exporters for the period December 13-19, 2019.

Wheat:  Net sales of 715,000 metric tons for 2019/2020 were down 18 percent from the previous week, but up 29 percent
from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for the Philippines (147,400 MT, including decreases of 4,300 MT), Taiwan (105,000 MT), unknown destinations (104,000 MT), Mexico (76,100 MT, including decreases of 23,200 MT), and Sri Lanka (65,000 MT),
were partially offset by reductions primarily for Italy (8,700 MT).  For 2020/2021, net sales of 41,000 MT were reported for unknown destinations (21,000 MT) and Italy (20,000 MT).  Exports of 508,300 MT were down 4 percent from the previous week, but up 27
percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (126,400 MT), the Philippines (101,400 MT), Bangladesh (64,200 MT), South Korea (31,900 MT), and Colombia (30,700 MT).  Optional Origin Sales:  For 2019/2020, new optional origin
sales of 300 MT were reported for South Korea.  Options were exercised to export 3,800 MT to South Korea from the United States.  The current outstanding balance of 56,000 MT is for the Philippines.

 

Corn:  Net sales of 624,800 metric tons for 2019/2020 were down 63 percent from the previous week and 37 percent
from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Mexico (216,300 MT, including decreases of 19,600 MT), Japan (168,600 MT, including 32,300 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 500 MT), Colombia (120,300 MT), unknown destinations (34,200
MT), and Canada (29,100 MT, including decreases of 1,000 MT), were offset by reductions for South Korea (15,000 MT) and Nicaragua (3,000 MT).  For 2020/2021, total net sales of 1,400 MT were for Japan.  Exports of 331,700 MT were down 54 percent from the previous
week and 44 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (154,600 MT), Japan (82,500 MT), Canada (21,800 MT), Panama (19,700 MT), and Colombia (16,300 MT).  Optional Origin Sales:  For 2019/2020, options were exercised
to export 96,100 MT to South Korea (70,400 MT) and Israel (25,700 MT) from other than the United States.  The current outstanding balance of 506,900 MT is for South Korea (388,000 MT), Israel (60,000 MT), and Egypt (58,900 MT).

Barley: No net sales for 2019/2020 were reported for the week.  Exports of 700 MT were up 17 percent from the previous
week, but down 4 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were to Japan (500 MT) and South Korea (200 MT).

 

Sorghum:  Net sales of 43,600 MT for 2019/2020 resulted in increases for China (75,800 MT, including 66,000 MT switched
from unknown destinations), Mexico (34,300 MT), and South Africa (7,500 MT, switched from unknown destinations), were offset by reductions for unknown destinations (74,000 MT).  Exports of 146,700 MT were up 66 percent from the previous week and up noticeably
from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (138,800 MT) and South Africa (7,500 MT).  

 

Rice: 
Net sales of 62,300 MT for 2019/2020 were up 69 percent from the previous week, but down 10 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Mexico (22,600 MT), El Salvador (16,000
MT), Japan (13,900 MT), Guatemala (5,300 MT), and Canada (2,000 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for Honduras (100 MT). 
Exports of 105,700 MT were up 40 percent from the previous week and 62 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Iraq (30,500 MT), Mexico (26,200 MT), Japan (23,000
MT),  Haiti (7,100 MT), and Nicaragua (5,800 MT).

Exports for Own Account:  For 2019/2020, the current exports for own account outstanding balance is 200 MT, all Canada.

 

Soybeans:  Net sales of 736,200 MT for 2019/2020 were down 49 percent from the previous week and 39 percent from
the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for China (400,400 MT, including 66,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 400 MT), the Netherlands (161,100 MT, including 154,500 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of
700 MT), Thailand (85,400 MT, including 70,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 200 MT), Saudi Arabia (72,100 MT, including 66,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and the United Kingdom (63,300 MT, including 57,000 MT switched
from unknown destinations), were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (313,300 MT) and South Korea (15,000 MT).  For 2020/2021, total net sales of 11,100 MT were for Japan.  Exports of 1,007,300 MT were down 28 percent from the previous
week and 39 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (348,500 MT), the Netherlands (161,100 M), Thailand (94,100 MT), Saudi Arabia (72,100 MT), and the United Kingdom (66,600 MT). 

Exports for Own Account:  For 2019/2020, the current exports for own account outstanding balance is 2,100 MT, all
Canada.

 

Soybean Cake and Meal:  Net sales of 138,000 MT for 2019/2020 were up 65 percent from the previous week, but down 8 percent
from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Colombia (31,600 MT), the Philippines (25,900 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), Ecuador (20,500 MT), Mexico (19,100 MT), and Canada (7,600 MT, including decreases of 2,100 MT), were offset by reductions
primarily for the Dominican Republic (2,700 MT), Guatemala (800 MT), and Panama (300 MT).  Exports of 169,800 MT were primarily to the Philippines (47,500 MT), the Dominican Republic (23,700 MT), Canada (19,100 MT), Morocco (16,500 MT), and El Salvador (12,800
MT).

 

Soybean Oil: 
Net sales of 37,400 MT for 2019/2020 were primarily for South Korea (23,000 MT), the Dominica Republic (10,500 MT), Colombia (1,700 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), Mexico (1,100 MT), and Canada
(600 MT).  Exports of 14,500 MT were to Colombia (9,500 MT), Nicaragua (2,200 MT), El Salvador (1,700 MT), Mexico (900 MT), and Canada (200 MT). 

 

Cotton:  Net sales of 135,100 RB for 2019/2020 were down 46 percent from the previous week and 44 percent from the
prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Vietnam (46,400 RB, including 400 RB switched from Japan and decreases of 1,300 RB), Turkey (29,700 RB), Indonesia (17,900 RB, including 900 RB switched from Malaysia, 500 RB switched from Japan, and decreases
of 3,600 RB), Colombia (11,000 RB), and Bangladesh (8,900 RB), were offset by reductions for China (12,900 RB).  For 2020/2021, net sales reductions of 9,300 RB resulting in increases for Costa Rica (4,200 RB) and Thailand (1,300 RB), were more than offset
by reductions for Indonesia (14,900 RB).  Exports of 202,100 RB were down 5 percent from the previous week, but up 8 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Exports were primarily to Pakistan (34,100 RB), Bangladesh (29,000 RB), Vietnam (24,800 RB), China
(22,100 RB), and India (21,300 RB).  Net sales of Pima totaling 19,300 RB were up 36 percent from the previous week and up noticeably from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for India (8,500 RB), Bangladesh (3,700 RB), Austria (2,600 RB),
Pakistan (1,300 RB), and Thailand (1,200 RB).  Exports of 8,400 RB were down 28 percent from the previous week and 11 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were India (2,800 RB), Vietnam (1,800 RB), El Salvador (900 RB), Peru (900
RB), and Turkey (600 RB). 

Exports for Own account:  For 2019/2020, new exports for own account totaling 3,800 RB were to China (1,300 RB),
Egypt (1,300 RB), Indonesia (1,100 RB), and Vietnam (100 RB).  Exports for own account totaling 2,100 RB to Indonesia (1,100 RB), Bangladesh (800 RB), Vietnam (100 RB), and China (100 RB) were applied to new or outstanding sales.  Decreases were reported for
India (1,200 RB).  The current exports for own account outstanding balance of 18,300 RB is for India (8,900 RB), Bangladesh (4,300 RB), China (3,800 RB), and Egypt (1,300 RB).

 

Hides and Skins: Net sales of 285,900 pieces reported for 2019 were down 27 percent from the previous week and 32
percent from the prior 4-week average.  Whole cattle hide sales totaling 288,600 pieces were primarily for China (158,700 pieces, including decreases of 13,700 pieces), South Korea (60,700 pieces, including decreases of 4,200 pieces), Mexico (20,700 pieces,
including decreases of 200 pieces), Brazil (19,100 pieces, including decreases of 400 pieces), and Taiwan (12,500 pieces, including decreases of 1,300 pieces).  For 2020, net sales of 119,000 pieces were primarily for China (83,900 pieces), Brazil (11,000
pieces), South Korea (8,900 pieces), and Mexico (7,100 pieces).  Exports of 310,400 pieces reported for 2019 were down 31 percent from the previous week and 33 percent from the prior 4-week average.   Whole cattle hide exports of 302,000 pieces were primarily
to China (176,100 pieces), South Korea (70,900 pieces), Thailand (18,100 pieces), Taiwan (12,800 pieces), and Mexico (10,000 pieces).

 

Net sales of 2,600 wet blues for 2019 were down 53 percent from the previous week and 96 percent from the prior 4-week
average resulting in increases for Thailand (19,100 unsplit), China (10,000 unsplit), Taiwan (4,700 unsplit), and Vietnam (4,000 unsplit), were offset by reductions primarily for Italy (10,500 grain splits and 8,500 unsplit), Thailand (6,400 grain splits),
Vietnam (3,600 grain splits), and India (1,900 grain splits and 700 unsplit).  For 2020, net sales of 138,600 wet blues primarily for Vietnam (31,900 unsplit and 8,400 grain splits), Italy (27,700 unsplit and 10,500 grain splits), Thailand (20,800 grain splits
and 14,800 unsplit), and China (18,000 unsplit and 2,400 grain splits), were offset by reductions for Taiwan (2,000 unsplit).  Exports of 110,500 wet blues for 2019 were down up 12 percent from the previous week, but down 6 percent from the prior 4-week average. 
The primary destinations were Vietnam (30,600 unsplit and 3,300 grain splits), China (28,000 unsplit and 3,400 grain splits), Italy (27,100 unsplit and 1,800 grain splits), and Thailand (4,500 unsplit).  Total net sales of splits, 979,000 pounds for 2019,
were for Vietnam.  For 2020, total net sales of 306,700 pounds were for Vietnam.  Exports of 496,500 pounds were to Vietnam.

 

Beef: 
Net sales of 6,300 MT reported for 2019 were down 37 percent from the previous week and 34 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for South Korea (3,100 MT, including decreases
of 1,300 MT), Japan (2,700 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), Mexico (1,600 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Canada (500 MT), and Indonesia (500 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for Hong Kong (2,000 MT) and Taiwan (900 MT).  For 2020, net sales
of 13,100 MT primarily for Hong Kong (3,400 MT), South Korea (3,300 MT), Japan (2,700 MT), Taiwan (1,300 MT), and Mexico (1,100 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for Vietnam (200 MT).  Exports of 16,000 MT were down 11 percent from the previous week
and 7 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Japan (4,600 MT), South Korea (3,800 MT), Mexico (2,300 MT), Hong Kong (1,200 MT), and Taiwan (1,200 MT).

 

Pork:
Net sales of 16,400 MT reported for 2019 were down 39 percent from the previous week and 42 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Mexico (12,200 MT), Japan (2,400 MT),
South Korea (1,700 MT), Canada (1,400 MT), and Vietnam (200 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for China (800 MT), Australia (600 MT), Colombia (400 MT), and Chile (200 MT).  For 2020, net sales of 17,800 MT were primarily for China (5,700 MT), Mexico
(2,700 MT), Australia (2,300 MT), Japan (2,200 MT), and Colombia (1,400 MT).  Exports of 40,100 MT were up 2 percent from the previous week and 5 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were to China (16,100 MT), Mexico (10,500 MT),
South Korea (3,200 MT), Japan (3,000 MT), and Canada (2,200 MT).

December 27, 2019                                         1                                   FOREIGN AGRICULTURAL SERVICE/USDA