From: Terry Reilly
Sent: Wednesday, April 15, 2020 11:17:03 AM (UTC-06:00) Central Time (US & Canada)
Subject: FI PDF for NOPA – record monthly crush
PDF attached
Supportive soybean complex but we continue to see meal/oil spreading and strong upward move in CBOT crush.
NOPA US March soybean crush of 181.4 million bushels was a record for the month and on a daily adjusted basis a record for any month. It came in 6.2 mil bu above trade expectations. The March crush on a daily adjusted basis was 2 percent higher than February and 6.7 percent higher than March 2019.
Soybean oil stocks of 1.899 billion pounds fell short of trade expectations by 168 million pounds, supportive, in our opinion, and are down from 1.922 billion pounds at the end of February. This helps our case that we think USDA was premature in lowering domestic demand in its last S&D report. The oil yield was 11.56 pounds, well up from 11.49 pounds last month. Implied demand was much better than expected.
Soybean meal exports were 974,000 short tons, above 763,000 short tons during February and above 844,000 short tons year ago. They were about 75,000 short tons above our expectations. The March soybean meal exports were the second largest for that month in our working history, and highest monthly volume since March 2017. The March soybean meal yield of 47.07 was up from 47.04 previous month and above 46.92 year ago.
Terry Reilly
Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds
Futures International │190 S LaSalle St., Suite 410│Chicago, IL 60603
W: 312.604.1366
AIM: fi_treilly
ICE IM: treilly1
Skype: fi.treilly
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Crush-est-FI041520.pdf