FW: FI US Ethanol Snapshot 09/26/18

Sep 26, 2018

 

From: Terry Reilly
Sent: Wednesday, September 26, 2018 11:33:17 AM (UTC-06:00) Central Time (US & Canada)
Subject: FI US Ethanol Snapshot 09/26/18

PDF attached

 

Ethanol update

  • The US weekly EIA ethanol data was viewed neutral for US corn futures and slightly bullish for US ethanol futures. 
  • Production decreased 15,000 barrels per day to 1.036 million barrels per day (bbl) and stocks decreased 117,000 to 22.629 million.
  • A Bloomberg poll called for US ethanol production to decrease 24,000 million/day and stocks to decrease 46,000 barrels. 
  • US ethanol production of 1.036 million barrels per day is about 4.0% higher from about the same time a year ago but 3.2% below 4-weeks ago.
  • Padd2 production was 949,000 barrels, down 9,000 from a week earlier.
  • Early September 2018 to date US ethanol production is running 1% above the same period a year ago.
  • There were no imports reported this week.
  • Ethanol stocks of 22.629 million barrels are down 1.9% from four weeks ago and up 9.1% from a year ago.
  • Ethanol stocks are lowest since July 27, 2018.
  • Days of inventory of 22.0 compared to 21.7 a month ago and 21.2 during comparable period a year ago.
  • Weekly ending stocks of total gasoline were up 1.53 million barrels to 235.68 million barrels.
  • The net blender input of fuel ethanol was down 27,000 from the previous week at 901,000 bpd, below its 4-week average of 935,000 bpd.
  • Net production of finished reformulated and conventional motor gasoline with ethanol, decreased 208,000 to 8.957 million barrels, or 90.9 percent of the net production of all finished motor gasoline, up from down from 91.6 percent for the previous week.
  • Our 2018-19 crop-year corn for ethanol usage is 5.725 billion bushels, 75 million above USDA’s current estimate of 5.650 and compares to our working projection of 5.604 billion for 2016-17 (USDA 5.600).
  • We look for the 2018-19 September – August weekly ethanol production to average 1.064 million barrels. The average for the first three weeks of the year is 1.036 million barrels.

 

 

 

 

 

Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International │190 S LaSalle St., Suite 410│Chicago, IL  60603

W: 312.604.1366

treilly@futures-int.com

AIM: fi_treilly

ICE IM:  treilly1

Skype: fi.treilly

 

Description: Description: Description: Description: FImail

 

Trading of futures, options, swaps and other derivatives is risky and is not suitable for all persons.  All of these investment products are leveraged, and you can lose more than your initial deposit.  Each investment product is offered only to and from jurisdictions where solicitation and sale are lawful, and in accordance with applicable laws and regulations in such jurisdiction.  The information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for independent research before making your investment decisions.  Futures International, LLC is merely providing this information for your general information and the information does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs.  All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision.  The contents of this communication and any attachments are for informational purposes only and under no circumstances should they be construed as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation to buy or sell any future, option, swap or other derivative.  The sources for the information and any opinions in this communication are believed to be reliable, but Futures International, LLC does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy of such information or opinions.  Futures International, LLC and its principals and employees may take positions different from any positions described in this communication.  Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

 

This email, any information contained herein and any files transmitted with it (collectively, the Material) are the sole property of OTC Global Holdings LP and its affiliates (OTCGH); are confidential, may be legally privileged and are intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. Unauthorized disclosure, copying or distribution of the Material, is strictly prohibited and the recipient shall not redistribute the Material in any form to a third party. Please notify the sender immediately by email if you have received this email by mistake, delete this email from your system and destroy any hard copies. OTCGH waives no privilege or confidentiality due to any mistaken transmission of this email.

pdf icon Weekly_EIA_Ethanol_Data-FI092618.pdf