FW: NOPA July crush blows away trade average

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NOPA reported a record (for the month) July crush of 167.7 million bushels, 8.5 million above June well above 144.7 million in July 2017.  On a daily adjusted basis, it was remarkably 103,000 bushels per day higher than the average June daily rate, a 1.9% increase. This was not expected given the amount of downtime during July.

 

 

The July crush of 167.733 million bushels ranks as the second highest monthly crush in our recorded history, behind 171.858 million in March 2018.  On a daily basis, the July crush ranked 4^th highest for any month. The Illinois region posted a record crush for the month of July. IA was not a record. Southeast and southwest regions posted a record for comparable July’s.

 

Soybean oil stocks came in 19 million pounds less than the average trade guess. This translate to much higher use than expected. At 1.764 billion pounds, its 2 million less than the end of June and compares to 1.558 billion at the end of July 2017.  July NOPA soybean oil stocks are the largest for that month since 2013.

 

The soybean oil yield fell 2 tenths to 11.50 pounds per bushel.  Last July it was 11.66 pounds per bushel.

 

July soybean oil production was 1.929 million pounds, second highest in our monthly history, behind 1.977 million in March 2018.

 

The soybean meal yield in July was 47.47, below 47.56 in June but up from 46.81 in July 2017.

 

July soybean meal production was 3.961 million short tons, second highest for any month behind 4.083 million short tons in March 2018.

 

Soybean meal exports were robust at 737,000 short tons, and a record for the month, but did fall below our expectations and were below 857,000 short tons in June and above 597,000 short tons in July 2017. 

 

Even with only one month of reporting left, we will likely increase our 2.041 billion bushel crush estimate (Sep-Aug) by 11-13 million bushels. USDA is at 2.040 billion.  Any feedback on August downtime is welcome.  

 

 

Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International │190 S LaSalle St., Suite 410│Chicago, IL  60603

W: 312.604.1366

treilly@futures-int.com

AIM: fi_treilly

ICE IM:  treilly1

Skype: fi.treilly

 

 

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