From: Terry Reilly
Sent: Friday, February 21, 2020 7:12:06 AM (UTC-06:00) Central Time (US & Canada)
Subject: USDA 2020-21 US Commodity Outlook PDF’s, FI Snapshot & Opinion
6 PDF’s attached include FI table that compares forum to baseline & last year’s (2019-20) latest forecast
USDA released 2020 US Outlook Tables
https://www.usda.gov/oce/forum/2020/Outlooks.htm
https://www.usda.gov/oce/forum/
2020-21 US soybean ending stocks 320 vs. trade ave. 519 (-199) and compares to 2019-20 of 425
2020-21 US corn ending stocks 2637 vs. trade ave. 2443 (+194) and compares to 2019-20 of 1892
2020-21 US all-wheat ending stocks 777 vs. trade ave. 829 (-52) and compares to 2019-20 of 940
Stocks for corn are very high, soybeans lower than expected and wheat lower than expected.
- Favors soybean/corn spreading.
- Tighter US soybean stocks of 320 million were 10 less than the lowest trade estimate (FI) and 105 million below 2019-20. STU falls to 7.4% versus 10.5 percent for 2019-20. USDA projects 2020-21 US crush up 25 million to 2.130 billion and exports up 225 million to 2.050 billion.
- US soybean meal domestic use estimated up 700,000 short tons to record 37.500 million and exports are down 100,000 from 2019-20.
- US soybean oil stocks are expected to rise 35 million pounds at 1.550 billion from 2019-20. They see US soybean oil for biodiesel use at 8.500 billion pounds, unchanged from the baseline, and up 300 million pounds from 2019-20. Interestingly they have a 33 cent target on SBO.
- Corn for ethanol projected up only 25 million bushels from 2019-20, while exports are up 375 million from 2019-20. US corn for feed is up 275 million. Unusually high US carryout of 2.637 billion yields a 17.9% STU.
- Wheat for feed projected down 30 million bushels and stocks are down 163 million from 2019-20. No major surprises.
Overall the USDA 2020-21 outlook is supportive for the US soybean complex, but traders will need verification of USDA’s high 2020-21 export number from fresh China buying. We like owning soybean oil over meal over the long-term, unless soybean meal demand shifts from Argentina to US amid increasing economic woes within Argentina in 2020. US corn stocks are viewed as negative, but the market is seeing support from higher wheat prices.
See attachments
Terry Reilly
Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds
Futures International │190 S LaSalle St., Suite 410│Chicago, IL 60603
W: 312.604.1366
AIM: fi_treilly
ICE IM: treilly1
Skype: fi.treilly
Trading of futures, options, swaps and other derivatives is risky and is not suitable for all persons. All of these investment products are leveraged, and you can lose more than your initial deposit. Each investment product is offered only to and from jurisdictions where solicitation and sale are lawful, and in accordance with applicable laws and regulations in such jurisdiction. The information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for independent research before making your investment decisions. Futures International, LLC is merely providing this information for your general information and the information does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision. The contents of this communication and any attachments are for informational purposes only and under no circumstances should they be construed as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation to buy or sell any future, option, swap or other derivative. The sources for the information and any opinions in this communication are believed to be reliable, but Futures International, LLC does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy of such information or opinions. Futures International, LLC and its principals and employees may take positions different from any positions described in this communication. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
This email, any information contained herein and any files transmitted with it (collectively, the Material) are the sole property of OTC Global Holdings LP and its affiliates (OTCGH); are confidential, may be legally privileged and are intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. Unauthorized disclosure, copying or distribution of the Material, is strictly prohibited and the recipient shall not redistribute the Material in any form to a third party. Please notify the sender immediately by email if you have received this email by mistake, delete this email from your system and destroy any hard copies. OTCGH waives no privilege or confidentiality due to any mistaken transmission of this email.
Livestock_and_Poultry.pdf