Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Apr-15-2024

Apr 15, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 7:58 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$1.723

$1.770

-2.66%

-$0.047

29,587

 

 

WTI

$84.99

$85.66

-0.78%

-$0.67

103,899

 

 

Brent

$89.69

$90.45

-0.84%

-$0.76

8,839

 

 

ULSD

$2.654

$2.685

-1.14%

-$0.031

5,991

 

 

RBOB

$2.784

$2.803

-0.69%

-$0.019

5,440

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$5.20

$5.37

-3.17%

-$0.17

Jun-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$29.80

$30.24

-1.43%

-$0.43

May-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$32.06

$32.30

-0.75%

-$0.24

May-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

04/12/24

617

-3

-131

04/15/23

 

 

Canada

04/12/24

141

5

14

04/15/23

 

 

International

Mar

971

13

41

Mar

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 4/9/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

93,098

92,681

92,737

-56

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

82,885

82,582

82,673

-91

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

368,676

348,085

355,480

-7,395

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

160,242

139,582

130,819

8,763

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

120,713

111,387

113,804

-2,417

 

 

NYM Ethanol

39,250

38,499

38,999

-500

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

147,247

145,998

146,835

-837

 

 

RBOB

426,032

396,941

409,498

-12,557

 

 

HSC Basis

799,092

790,761

793,075

-2,314

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

04/05/19

 

 

 

4/5/24

3/29/24

Net Change

% Change

4/7/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

362

363

-1

-0.28%

345

4.93%

299

21.15%

 

 

Midwest

512

510

2

0.39%

427

19.91%

372

37.56%

 

 

Mountain

165

162

3

1.85%

80

106.25%

89

84.56%

 

 

Pacific

229

227

2

0.88%

74

209.46%

154

48.70%

 

 

South

1,014

996

18

1.81%

929

9.15%

756

34.16%

 

 

    Salt

299

294

5

1.70%

261

14.56%

230

30.00%

 

 

    Non_Salt

714

701

13

1.85%

667

7.05%

526

35.84%

 

 

Total

2,283

2,259

24

1.06%

1,855

23.07%

1,670

36.72%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

4/12/24

4/11/24

% Change

Change

3/14/24

% Change

4/13/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

May-24

$35.75

$36.09

-0.95%

-$0.34

$36.01

-0.74%

$44.56

-19.78%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

May-24

$37.77

$36.73

2.83%

$1.04

$38.29

-1.37%

$33.77

11.85%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

May-24

$9.73

$10.00

-2.71%

-$0.27

$17.43

-44.19%

$31.58

-69.19%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

May-24

$35.81

$36.48

-1.83%

-$0.67

$37.34

-4.09%

$48.69

-26.45%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

May-24

$28.74

$28.38

1.29%

$0.37

$29.06

-1.10%

$37.97

-24.31%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

May-24

$23.25

$23.50

-1.06%

-$0.25

$27.21

-14.55%

$51.72

-55.04%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

May-24

$28.53

$28.93

-1.37%

-$0.40

$28.51

0.09%

$39.00

-26.84%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

4/12/24

4/11/24

% Change

Change

3/14/24

% Change

4/13/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

May-24

$1.770

$1.764

0.34%

$0.01

$1.86

-4.94%

$3.00

-40.96%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

May-24

-$0.359

-$0.330

8.60%

-$0.03

-$0.21

71.35%

-$0.38

-6.42%

 

 

Chicago

May-24

-$0.204

-$0.222

9.23%

$0.02

-$0.11

88.26%

-$0.15

40.39%

 

 

Waha

May-24

-$2.053

-$2.072

-0.89%

$0.02

-$1.24

66.07%

-$1.47

39.61%

 

 

Algonquin

May-24

-$0.181

-$0.191

5.03%

$0.01

-$0.22

-15.71%

-$0.35

-47.54%

 

 

Aeco

May-24

-$0.723

-$0.779

-7.19%

$0.06

-$0.60

21.51%

-$1.06

-31.50%

 

 

Socal

May-24

-$0.377

-$0.389

-3.06%

$0.01

-$0.13

179.32%

-$0.03

1119.42%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

4/12/24

4/11/24

% Change

Change

3/14/24

% Change

4/13/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

May-24

$0.804

$0.795

1.12%

$0.01

$0.78

3.55%

$0.80

-0.09%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

May-24

$0.800

$0.795

0.64%

$0.01

$0.78

3.23%

$0.80

-0.26%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

May-24

$0.195

$0.193

1.29%

$0.00

$0.18

6.85%

$0.21

-8.95%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

May-24

$1.640

$1.615

1.54%

$0.02

$1.63

0.65%

$1.56

5.30%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

May-24

$0.917

$0.924

-0.70%

-$0.01

$0.88

3.81%

$0.90

1.50%

 

 

Far East Propane

May-24

$6.031

$5.983

0.79%

$0.05

$5.95

1.36%

$5.48

10.03%

 

 

Saudi Propane

May-24

$5.900

$5.840

1.03%

$0.06

$5.74

2.79%

$5.32

10.81%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

4/12/24

4/11/24

% Change

Change

3/14/24

% Change

4/13/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Jun-24

$85.08

$84.45

0.74%

$0.63

$80.19

6.10%

$75.11

13.27%

 

 

Brent

Jun-24

$90.45

$89.74

0.78%

$0.71

$84.74

6.74%

$79.60

13.63%

 

 

WCS

Jun-24

-$12.19

-$12.00

1.57%

-$0.19

-$12.72

-4.19%

-$14.50

-15.90%

 

 

LLS

Jun-24

$86.80

$87.03

-0.27%

-$0.24

$81.93

5.94%

$75.91

14.34%

 

 

Mars

Jun-24

$84.70

$84.91

-0.25%

-$0.21

$79.29

6.82%

$72.66

16.58%

 

 

Sour

Jun-24

$85.61

$85.99

-0.45%

-$0.39

$80.05

6.94%

$73.43

16.58%

 

 

ESPO

Jun-24

$88.45

$87.74

0.80%

$0.71

$82.74

6.90%

$77.13

14.68%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

4/12/24

4/11/24

% Change

Change

3/14/24

% Change

4/13/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

May-24

$2.70

$2.66

1.43%

$0.04

$2.68

0.86%

$2.53

6.80%

 

 

NY Gasoline

May-24

$2.80

$2.77

1.12%

$0.03

$2.68

4.43%

$2.45

14.18%

 

 

GC Gasoline

May-24

$2.70

$2.67

1.16%

$0.03

$2.58

4.61%

$2.36

14.78%

 

 

GC Jet

May-24

$2.66

$2.62

1.57%

$0.04

$2.53

4.97%

$2.25

18.17%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

May-24

$1.66

$1.64

1.09%

$0.02

$1.70

-2.06%

$1.75

-4.86%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

May-24

$795.42

$775.24

2.60%

$20.18

$770.53

3.23%

$702.70

13.19%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

May-24

$107.55

$106.33

1.15%

$1.22

$102.77

4.65%

$95.36

12.79%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

4/12/24

4/11/24

% Change

Change

3/14/24

% Change

4/13/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

May-24

60.67%

60.12%

0.91%

0.55%

60.92%

-0.41%

57.04%

6.36%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

May-24

68.76%

73.98%

-7.06%

-5.22%

72.84%

-5.60%

61.04%

12.65%

 

 

Waha Straddle

May-24

2622.64%

2701.38%

-2.91%

-78.74%

150.33%

1644.59%

74.92%

3400.59%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

May-24

66.68%

66.56%

0.18%

0.12%

64.76%

2.96%

59.29%

12.46%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

May-24

45.58%

44.52%

2.38%

1.06%

47.04%

-3.10%

46.23%

-1.41%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

May-24

149.21%

140.12%

6.49%

9.09%

132.55%

12.57%

24.49%

509.27%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

May-24

73.56%

42.70%

72.27%

30.86%

93.93%

-21.69%

73.45%

0.15%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

4/12/24

4/11/24

% Change

Change

3/14/24

% Change

4/13/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

May-24

EUR 30.79

EUR 29.45

4.54%

EUR 1.34

EUR 26.42

16.54%

EUR 54.53

-43.53%

 

 

NBP

May-24

GBP 76.15

GBP 73.63

3.43%

GBP 2.53

GBP 65.36

16.51%

GBP 141.06

-46.01%

 

 

German Base

May-24

EUR 65.19

EUR 62.32

4.61%

EUR 2.87

EUR 52.30

24.65%

EUR 129.63

-49.71%

 

 

UK Base

May-24

GBP 64.95

GBP 63.88

1.68%

GBP 1.07

GBP 59.70

8.79%

GBP 127.11

-48.90%

 

 

French Base

May-24

EUR 33.25

EUR 27.01

23.12%

EUR 6.24

EUR 43.44

-23.44%

EUR 129.21

-74.26%

 

 

Italian Base

May-24

EUR 85.63

EUR 86.86

-1.41%

-EUR 1.22

EUR 78.77

8.72%

EUR 140.46

-39.03%

 

 

JKM LNG

May-24

$9.44

$10.07

-6.21%

-$0.63

$8.87

6.40%

$16.64

-43.27%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

4/12/24

4/11/24

% Change

Change

3/14/24

% Change

4/13/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

May-24

$30.79

$29.45

4.54%

$1.34

$26.42

16.54%

$54.53

-43.53%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

May-24

$76.15

$73.63

3.43%

$2.53

$65.36

16.51%

$141.06

-46.01%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

May-24

$65.19

$62.32

4.61%

$2.87

$52.30

24.65%

$129.63

-49.71%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

May-24

$64.95

$63.88

1.68%

$1.07

$59.70

8.79%

$127.11

-48.90%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

May-24

$33.25

$27.01

23.12%

$6.24

$43.44

-23.44%

$129.21

-74.26%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

May-24

$85.63

$86.86

-1.41%

-$1.22

$78.77

8.72%

$140.46

-39.03%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

May-24

$9.44

$10.07

-6.21%

-$0.63

$8.87

6.40%

$16.64

-43.27%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

04/13/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

0

0

-2

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

-4

0

0

-9

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

0

0

-2

0

-1

-2

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

0

-1

-2

0

-4

-3

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

13

0

-6

107

-31

-89

-22.00%

-45.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

-5

0

10

-30

-34

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

23

6

11

115

4

-51

4.00%

-31.00%

 

 

Mountain

3

-4

-4

3

-22

-4

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

0

-2

0

0

-11

0

NA

NA

 

 

United States

5

0

-1

34

-10

-26

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

04/13/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

119

-31

9

5,245

-762

84

-13.00%

2.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

97

-32

5

4,817

-627

118

-12.00%

2.00%

 

 

E N Central

90

-43

5

5,049

-943

-278

-16.00%

-5.00%

 

 

W N Central

90

-34

10

5,282

-1,019

-808

-16.00%

-13.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

34

-15

-17

2,368

-351

47

-13.00%

2.00%

 

 

E S Central

43

-15

-15

2,992

-450

77

-13.00%

3.00%

 

 

W S Central

21

-6

-15

2,023

-221

-1

-10.00%

0.00%

 

 

Mountain

109

0

25

4,440

-261

-614

-6.00%

-12.00%

 

 

Pacific

78

3

-3

2,732

-100

-507

-4.00%

-16.00%

 

 

United States

71

-19

-2

3,683

-498

-185

-12.00%

-5.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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