Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Apr-16-2024

Apr 16, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 7:56 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$1.723

$1.691

1.89%

$0.032

29,587

 

 

WTI

$84.99

$85.41

-0.49%

-$0.42

103,899

 

 

Brent

$89.69

$90.10

-0.46%

-$0.41

8,839

 

 

ULSD

$2.654

$2.654

0.01%

$0.000

5,991

 

 

RBOB

$2.784

$2.784

-0.01%

$0.000

5,440

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$5.20

$5.24

-0.76%

-$0.04

Jun-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$29.80

$29.62

0.61%

$0.18

May-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$31.40

$32.13

-2.29%

-$0.73

May-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

04/12/24

617

-3

-131

04/15/23

 

 

Canada

04/12/24

141

5

30

04/15/23

 

 

International

Mar

971

13

41

Mar

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 4/9/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

93,098

92,681

92,737

-56

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

82,885

82,582

82,673

-91

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

368,676

348,085

355,480

-7,395

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

160,242

139,582

130,819

8,763

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

120,713

111,387

113,804

-2,417

 

 

NYM Ethanol

39,250

38,499

38,999

-500

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

147,247

145,998

146,835

-837

 

 

RBOB

426,032

396,941

409,498

-12,557

 

 

HSC Basis

799,092

790,761

793,075

-2,314

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

04/05/19

 

 

 

4/5/24

3/29/24

Net Change

% Change

4/7/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

362

363

-1

-0.28%

345

4.93%

299

21.15%

 

 

Midwest

512

510

2

0.39%

427

19.91%

372

37.56%

 

 

Mountain

165

162

3

1.85%

80

106.25%

89

84.56%

 

 

Pacific

229

227

2

0.88%

74

209.46%

154

48.70%

 

 

South

1,014

996

18

1.81%

929

9.15%

756

34.16%

 

 

    Salt

299

294

5

1.70%

261

14.56%

230

30.00%

 

 

    Non_Salt

714

701

13

1.85%

667

7.05%

526

35.84%

 

 

Total

2,283

2,259

24

1.06%

1,855

23.07%

1,670

36.72%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

4/15/24

4/12/24

% Change

Change

3/15/24

% Change

4/14/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

May-24

$35.08

$35.75

-1.86%

-$0.67

$36.25

-3.24%

$45.22

-22.41%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

May-24

$37.54

$37.77

-0.61%

-$0.23

$38.13

-1.54%

$34.79

7.91%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

May-24

$8.22

$9.73

-15.47%

-$1.51

$17.21

-52.20%

$30.54

-73.07%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

May-24

$35.01

$35.81

-2.23%

-$0.80

$37.50

-6.63%

$49.42

-29.15%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

May-24

$29.23

$28.74

1.68%

$0.48

$29.14

0.28%

$36.71

-20.39%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

May-24

$23.02

$23.25

-0.99%

-$0.23

$26.90

-14.44%

$54.20

-57.53%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

May-24

$27.01

$28.53

-5.35%

-$1.53

$28.51

-5.28%

$40.81

-33.82%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

4/15/24

4/12/24

% Change

Change

3/15/24

% Change

4/14/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

May-24

$1.691

$1.770

-4.46%

-$0.08

$1.79

-5.48%

$3.05

-44.48%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

May-24

-$0.375

-$0.359

4.38%

-$0.02

-$0.20

90.78%

-$0.38

-0.98%

 

 

Chicago

May-24

-$0.199

-$0.204

2.11%

$0.00

-$0.13

52.64%

-$0.15

29.13%

 

 

Waha

May-24

-$2.215

-$2.053

-7.88%

-$0.16

-$1.24

78.60%

-$1.48

49.34%

 

 

Algonquin

May-24

-$0.178

-$0.181

2.04%

$0.00

-$0.20

-13.32%

-$0.34

-48.40%

 

 

Aeco

May-24

-$0.740

-$0.723

2.34%

-$0.02

-$0.61

21.23%

-$1.03

-28.48%

 

 

Socal

May-24

-$0.389

-$0.377

3.18%

-$0.01

-$0.15

158.68%

-$0.04

804.19%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

4/15/24

4/12/24

% Change

Change

3/15/24

% Change

4/14/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

May-24

$0.800

$0.804

-0.48%

$0.00

$0.79

1.74%

$0.80

0.33%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

May-24

$0.797

$0.800

-0.32%

$0.00

$0.79

1.04%

$0.79

0.43%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

May-24

$0.190

$0.195

-2.56%

$0.00

$0.18

5.56%

$0.22

-14.26%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

May-24

$1.625

$1.640

-0.90%

-$0.01

$1.62

0.62%

$1.54

5.45%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

May-24

$0.914

$0.917

-0.37%

$0.00

$0.90

1.45%

$0.89

2.41%

 

 

Far East Propane

May-24

$6.018

$6.031

-0.21%

-$0.01

$5.99

0.55%

$5.48

9.91%

 

 

Saudi Propane

May-24

$5.870

$5.900

-0.51%

-$0.03

$5.74

2.26%

$5.25

11.76%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

4/15/24

4/12/24

% Change

Change

3/15/24

% Change

4/14/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Jun-24

$84.86

$85.08

-0.26%

-$0.22

$80.14

5.89%

$75.39

12.56%

 

 

Brent

Jun-24

$90.10

$90.45

-0.39%

-$0.35

$84.75

6.31%

$79.82

12.88%

 

 

WCS

Jun-24

-$12.05

-$12.19

-1.19%

$0.14

-$12.44

-3.17%

-$14.05

-14.22%

 

 

LLS

Jun-24

$86.71

$86.80

-0.10%

-$0.08

$81.87

5.91%

$76.67

13.09%

 

 

Mars

Jun-24

$84.73

$84.70

0.04%

$0.03

$79.35

6.78%

$73.00

16.08%

 

 

Sour

Jun-24

$85.56

$85.61

-0.06%

-$0.05

$80.45

6.35%

$73.63

16.20%

 

 

ESPO

Jun-24

$88.10

$88.45

-0.40%

-$0.35

$82.75

6.47%

$77.71

13.37%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

4/15/24

4/12/24

% Change

Change

3/15/24

% Change

4/14/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

May-24

$2.66

$2.70

-1.44%

-$0.04

$2.69

-1.15%

$2.51

6.14%

 

 

NY Gasoline

May-24

$2.79

$2.80

-0.39%

-$0.01

$2.68

4.06%

$2.48

12.76%

 

 

GC Gasoline

May-24

$2.69

$2.70

-0.41%

-$0.01

$2.58

4.22%

$2.38

13.30%

 

 

GC Jet

May-24

$2.62

$2.66

-1.43%

-$0.04

$2.57

2.22%

$2.30

13.80%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

May-24

$1.65

$1.66

-0.48%

-$0.01

$1.72

-3.50%

$1.74

-4.94%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

May-24

$770.99

$795.42

-3.07%

-$24.43

$774.21

-0.42%

$686.77

12.26%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

May-24

$104.80

$107.55

-2.56%

-$2.75

$102.60

2.14%

$94.29

11.14%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

4/15/24

4/12/24

% Change

Change

3/15/24

% Change

4/14/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

May-24

63.13%

60.67%

4.05%

2.46%

68.16%

-7.38%

52.26%

20.80%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

May-24

71.92%

68.76%

4.60%

3.16%

78.84%

-8.78%

55.80%

28.89%

 

 

Waha Straddle

May-24

2554.30%

2622.64%

-2.61%

-68.34%

156.70%

1530.06%

67.58%

3679.67%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

May-24

68.81%

66.68%

3.19%

2.13%

72.46%

-5.04%

53.78%

27.95%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

May-24

41.30%

45.58%

-9.39%

-4.28%

47.33%

-12.74%

46.59%

-11.35%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

May-24

165.08%

149.21%

10.64%

15.87%

154.25%

7.02%

24.34%

578.23%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

May-24

65.22%

73.56%

-11.34%

-8.34%

66.90%

-2.51%

74.35%

-12.28%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

4/15/24

4/12/24

% Change

Change

3/15/24

% Change

4/14/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

May-24

EUR 31.40

EUR 30.79

1.98%

EUR 0.61

EUR 27.30

15.01%

EUR 54.38

-42.26%

 

 

NBP

May-24

GBP 77.97

GBP 76.15

2.38%

GBP 1.81

GBP 67.76

15.07%

GBP 139.97

-44.30%

 

 

German Base

May-24

EUR 66.45

EUR 65.19

1.93%

EUR 1.26

EUR 53.35

24.56%

EUR 126.20

-47.35%

 

 

UK Base

May-24

GBP 66.36

GBP 64.95

2.16%

GBP 1.41

GBP 58.54

13.35%

GBP 122.91

-46.01%

 

 

French Base

May-24

EUR 26.26

EUR 33.25

-21.02%

-EUR 6.99

EUR 42.10

-37.62%

EUR 126.76

-79.28%

 

 

Italian Base

May-24

EUR 87.87

EUR 85.63

2.61%

EUR 2.23

EUR 78.51

11.92%

EUR 137.25

-35.98%

 

 

JKM LNG

May-24

$9.88

$9.44

4.66%

$0.44

$9.35

5.74%

$16.11

-38.67%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

4/15/24

4/12/24

% Change

Change

3/15/24

% Change

4/14/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

May-24

$31.40

$30.79

1.98%

$0.61

$27.30

15.01%

$54.38

-42.26%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

May-24

$77.97

$76.15

2.38%

$1.81

$67.76

15.07%

$139.97

-44.30%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

May-24

$66.45

$65.19

1.93%

$1.26

$53.35

24.56%

$126.20

-47.35%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

May-24

$66.36

$64.95

2.16%

$1.41

$58.54

13.35%

$122.91

-46.01%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

May-24

$26.26

$33.25

-21.02%

-$6.99

$42.10

-37.62%

$126.76

-79.28%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

May-24

$87.87

$85.63

2.61%

$2.23

$78.51

11.92%

$137.25

-35.98%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

May-24

$9.88

$9.44

4.66%

$0.44

$9.35

5.74%

$16.11

-38.67%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

04/13/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

0

0

-2

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

-4

0

0

-9

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

0

0

-2

0

-1

-2

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

0

-1

-2

0

-4

-3

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

13

0

-6

107

-31

-89

-22.00%

-45.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

-5

0

10

-30

-34

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

23

6

11

115

4

-51

4.00%

-31.00%

 

 

Mountain

3

-4

-4

3

-22

-4

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

0

-2

0

0

-11

0

NA

NA

 

 

United States

5

0

-1

34

-10

-26

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

04/13/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

119

-31

9

5,245

-762

84

-13.00%

2.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

97

-32

5

4,817

-627

118

-12.00%

2.00%

 

 

E N Central

90

-43

5

5,049

-943

-278

-16.00%

-5.00%

 

 

W N Central

90

-34

10

5,282

-1,019

-808

-16.00%

-13.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

34

-15

-17

2,368

-351

47

-13.00%

2.00%

 

 

E S Central

43

-15

-15

2,992

-450

77

-13.00%

3.00%

 

 

W S Central

21

-6

-15

2,023

-221

-1

-10.00%

0.00%

 

 

Mountain

109

0

25

4,440

-261

-614

-6.00%

-12.00%

 

 

Pacific

78

3

-3

2,732

-100

-507

-4.00%

-16.00%

 

 

United States

71

-19

-2

3,683

-498

-185

-12.00%

-5.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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