Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Apr-17-2024

Apr 17, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:47 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$1.692

$1.732

-2.31%

-$0.040

43,969

 

 

WTI

$84.51

$85.36

-1.00%

-$0.85

87,356

 

 

Brent

$89.04

$90.02

-1.09%

-$0.98

15,989

 

 

ULSD

$2.620

$2.651

-1.20%

-$0.032

8,108

 

 

RBOB

$2.783

$2.822

-1.40%

-$0.039

11,273

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$5.09

$5.19

-1.93%

-$0.10

Jun-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$29.96

$30.53

-1.85%

-$0.57

May-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$33.34

$31.38

6.26%

$1.96

May-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

04/12/24

617

-3

-131

04/15/23

 

 

Canada

04/12/24

141

5

30

04/15/23

 

 

International

Mar

971

13

41

Mar

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 4/9/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

93,098

92,681

92,737

-56

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

82,885

82,582

82,673

-91

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

368,676

348,085

355,480

-7,395

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

160,242

139,582

130,819

8,763

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

120,713

111,387

113,804

-2,417

 

 

NYM Ethanol

39,250

38,499

38,999

-500

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

147,247

145,998

146,835

-837

 

 

RBOB

426,032

396,941

409,498

-12,557

 

 

HSC Basis

799,092

790,761

793,075

-2,314

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

04/05/19

 

 

 

4/5/24

3/29/24

Net Change

% Change

4/7/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

362

363

-1

-0.28%

345

4.93%

299

21.15%

 

 

Midwest

512

510

2

0.39%

427

19.91%

372

37.56%

 

 

Mountain

165

162

3

1.85%

80

106.25%

89

84.56%

 

 

Pacific

229

227

2

0.88%

74

209.46%

154

48.70%

 

 

South

1,014

996

18

1.81%

929

9.15%

756

34.16%

 

 

    Salt

299

294

5

1.70%

261

14.56%

230

30.00%

 

 

    Non_Salt

714

701

13

1.85%

667

7.05%

526

35.84%

 

 

Total

2,283

2,259

24

1.06%

1,855

23.07%

1,670

36.72%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

4/16/24

4/15/24

% Change

Change

3/18/24

% Change

4/17/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

May-24

$36.95

$35.08

5.33%

$1.87

$36.99

-0.10%

$46.42

-20.40%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

May-24

$38.47

$37.54

2.48%

$0.93

$38.03

1.16%

$36.19

6.29%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

May-24

$8.75

$8.22

6.40%

$0.53

$18.00

-51.39%

$31.28

-72.02%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

May-24

$35.98

$35.01

2.77%

$0.97

$38.45

-6.41%

$50.71

-29.05%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

May-24

$29.36

$29.23

0.45%

$0.13

$29.68

-1.10%

$39.48

-25.63%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

May-24

$23.81

$23.02

3.42%

$0.79

$28.40

-16.18%

$52.53

-54.68%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

May-24

$28.73

$27.01

6.37%

$1.72

$28.44

1.00%

$43.66

-34.19%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

4/16/24

4/15/24

% Change

Change

3/18/24

% Change

4/17/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

May-24

$1.732

$1.691

2.42%

$0.04

$1.83

-5.51%

$3.14

-44.91%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

May-24

-$0.340

-$0.375

-9.11%

$0.03

-$0.20

72.79%

-$0.38

-10.30%

 

 

Chicago

May-24

-$0.210

-$0.199

-5.14%

-$0.01

-$0.13

63.15%

-$0.15

37.09%

 

 

Waha

May-24

-$2.211

-$2.215

-0.19%

$0.00

-$1.26

74.94%

-$1.49

48.68%

 

 

Algonquin

May-24

-$0.149

-$0.178

16.09%

$0.03

-$0.20

-26.91%

-$0.34

-55.89%

 

 

Aeco

May-24

-$0.765

-$0.740

3.39%

-$0.03

-$0.56

37.26%

-$1.02

-25.34%

 

 

Socal

May-24

-$0.367

-$0.389

-5.56%

$0.02

-$0.14

162.10%

-$0.05

652.46%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

4/16/24

4/15/24

% Change

Change

3/18/24

% Change

4/17/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

May-24

$0.810

$0.800

1.26%

$0.01

$0.82

-0.61%

$0.78

4.39%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

May-24

$0.804

$0.797

0.79%

$0.01

$0.80

0.16%

$0.79

2.31%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

May-24

$0.190

$0.190

-0.01%

$0.00

$0.18

7.78%

$0.23

-17.18%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

May-24

$1.650

$1.625

1.54%

$0.02

$1.63

1.07%

$1.54

7.14%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

May-24

$0.924

$0.914

1.06%

$0.01

$0.92

0.65%

$0.89

4.30%

 

 

Far East Propane

May-24

$6.050

$6.018

0.53%

$0.03

$6.04

0.17%

$5.43

11.50%

 

 

Saudi Propane

May-24

$5.910

$5.870

0.68%

$0.04

$5.84

1.19%

$5.22

13.27%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

4/16/24

4/15/24

% Change

Change

3/18/24

% Change

4/17/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Jun-24

$84.83

$84.86

-0.04%

-$0.03

$81.61

3.95%

$74.47

13.91%

 

 

Brent

Jun-24

$90.02

$90.10

-0.09%

-$0.08

$86.19

4.44%

$78.91

14.08%

 

 

WCS

Jun-24

-$12.05

-$12.05

0.00%

$0.00

-$11.11

8.42%

-$13.74

-12.31%

 

 

LLS

Jun-24

$86.71

$86.71

0.00%

$0.00

$83.48

3.87%

$75.50

14.85%

 

 

Mars

Jun-24

$84.73

$84.73

0.00%

$0.00

$80.83

4.83%

$72.05

17.60%

 

 

Sour

Jun-24

$85.56

$85.56

0.00%

$0.00

$80.89

5.77%

$72.48

18.04%

 

 

ESPO

Jun-24

$88.02

$88.10

-0.09%

-$0.08

$84.19

4.55%

$77.75

13.20%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

4/16/24

4/15/24

% Change

Change

3/18/24

% Change

4/17/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

May-24

$2.65

$2.66

-0.38%

-$0.01

$2.75

-3.53%

$2.49

6.63%

 

 

NY Gasoline

May-24

$2.80

$2.79

0.36%

$0.01

$2.73

2.75%

$2.43

15.36%

 

 

GC Gasoline

May-24

$2.70

$2.69

0.37%

$0.01

$2.63

2.85%

$2.33

16.02%

 

 

GC Jet

May-24

$2.61

$2.62

-0.34%

-$0.01

$2.61

0.00%

$2.20

18.72%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

May-24

$1.66

$1.65

0.60%

$0.01

$1.69

-1.36%

$1.72

-3.42%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

May-24

$776.02

$770.99

0.65%

$5.03

$789.16

-1.67%

$689.79

12.50%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

May-24

$105.00

$104.80

0.20%

$0.21

$104.32

0.65%

$94.42

11.21%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

4/16/24

4/15/24

% Change

Change

3/18/24

% Change

4/17/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Jun-24

56.27%

56.94%

-1.18%

-0.67%

55.68%

1.06%

46.98%

19.77%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Jun-24

76.73%

77.31%

-0.75%

-0.58%

51.86%

47.96%

51.00%

50.45%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Jun-24

172.87%

196.87%

-12.19%

-24.00%

92.86%

86.16%

59.46%

190.73%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Jun-24

60.00%

58.84%

1.97%

1.16%

58.67%

2.27%

48.66%

23.30%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Jun-24

57.12%

56.49%

1.12%

0.63%

46.61%

22.55%

46.65%

22.44%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Jun-24

81.32%

74.74%

8.80%

6.58%

19.77%

311.33%

44.99%

80.75%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Jun-24

194.40%

219.87%

-11.58%

-25.47%

212.88%

-8.68%

73.47%

164.60%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

4/16/24

4/15/24

% Change

Change

3/18/24

% Change

4/17/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Jun-24

EUR 33.55

EUR 31.52

6.44%

EUR 2.03

EUR 28.57

17.45%

EUR 53.89

-37.74%

 

 

NBP

Jun-24

GBP 83.18

GBP 77.19

7.76%

GBP 5.99

GBP 70.27

18.37%

GBP 135.39

-38.56%

 

 

German Base

Jun-24

EUR 75.93

EUR 71.16

6.71%

EUR 4.77

EUR 61.30

23.86%

EUR 122.71

-38.12%

 

 

UK Base

Jun-24

GBP 69.92

GBP 68.23

2.47%

GBP 1.69

GBP 64.94

7.67%

GBP 128.83

-45.73%

 

 

French Base

Jun-24

EUR 42.60

EUR 39.98

6.57%

EUR 2.63

EUR 54.35

-21.61%

EUR 119.70

-64.41%

 

 

Italian Base

Jun-24

EUR 97.93

EUR 92.69

5.65%

EUR 5.24

EUR 85.42

14.64%

EUR 131.97

-25.79%

 

 

JKM LNG

Jun-24

$10.21

$9.88

3.28%

$0.32

$9.96

2.49%

$15.93

-35.92%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

4/16/24

4/15/24

% Change

Change

3/18/24

% Change

4/17/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Jun-24

$33.55

$31.52

6.44%

$2.03

$28.57

17.45%

$53.89

-37.74%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Jun-24

$83.18

$77.19

7.76%

$5.99

$70.27

18.37%

$135.39

-38.56%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Jun-24

$75.93

$71.16

6.71%

$4.77

$61.30

23.86%

$122.71

-38.12%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Jun-24

$69.92

$68.23

2.47%

$1.69

$64.94

7.67%

$128.83

-45.73%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Jun-24

$42.60

$39.98

6.57%

$2.63

$54.35

-21.61%

$119.70

-64.41%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Jun-24

$97.93

$92.69

5.65%

$5.24

$85.42

14.64%

$131.97

-25.79%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Jun-24

$10.21

$9.88

3.28%

$0.32

$9.96

2.49%

$15.93

-35.92%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

04/13/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

0

0

-2

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

-4

0

0

-9

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

0

0

-2

0

-1

-2

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

0

-1

-2

0

-4

-3

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

13

0

-6

107

-31

-89

-22.00%

-45.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

-5

0

10

-30

-34

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

23

6

11

115

4

-51

4.00%

-31.00%

 

 

Mountain

3

-4

-4

3

-22

-4

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

0

-2

0

0

-11

0

NA

NA

 

 

United States

5

0

-1

34

-10

-26

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

04/13/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

119

-31

9

5,245

-762

84

-13.00%

2.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

97

-32

5

4,817

-627

118

-12.00%

2.00%

 

 

E N Central

90

-43

5

5,049

-943

-278

-16.00%

-5.00%

 

 

W N Central

90

-34

10

5,282

-1,019

-808

-16.00%

-13.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

34

-15

-17

2,368

-351

47

-13.00%

2.00%

 

 

E S Central

43

-15

-15

2,992

-450

77

-13.00%

3.00%

 

 

W S Central

21

-6

-15

2,023

-221

-1

-10.00%

0.00%

 

 

Mountain

109

0

25

4,440

-261

-614

-6.00%

-12.00%

 

 

Pacific

78

3

-3

2,732

-100

-507

-4.00%

-16.00%

 

 

United States

71

-19

-2

3,683

-498

-185

-12.00%

-5.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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