Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Apr-23-2024

Apr 23, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:27 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$1.753

$1.791

-2.12%

-$0.038

13,995

 

 

WTI

$81.31

$82.85

-1.86%

-$1.54

124,818

 

 

Brent

$86.42

$87.00

-0.67%

-$0.58

10,181

 

 

ULSD

$2.530

$2.560

-1.19%

-$0.030

2,589

 

 

RBOB

$2.657

$2.685

-1.07%

-$0.029

5,259

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$5.11

$5.10

0.20%

$0.01

Jun-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$28.10

$28.61

-1.79%

-$0.51

Jun-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$33.45

$32.84

1.88%

$0.62

May-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

04/19/24

619

2

-134

04/22/23

 

 

Canada

04/19/24

127

-14

22

04/22/23

 

 

International

Mar

971

13

41

Mar

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 4/16/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

94,240

93,781

93,764

17

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

83,584

83,221

83,384

-163

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

369,157

348,415

355,810

-7,395

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

164,559

143,655

132,970

10,685

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

127,783

118,907

121,315

-2,408

 

 

NYM Ethanol

38,386

37,634

38,032

-398

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

152,077

150,972

151,665

-693

 

 

RBOB

417,165

388,136

401,786

-13,650

 

 

HSC Basis

809,693

800,443

800,742

-299

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

04/12/19

 

 

 

4/12/24

4/5/24

Net Change

% Change

4/14/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

379

362

17

4.70%

363

4.41%

311

21.94%

 

 

Midwest

528

512

16

3.13%

450

17.33%

384

37.36%

 

 

Mountain

167

165

2

1.21%

84

98.81%

91

84.33%

 

 

Pacific

230

229

1

0.44%

83

177.11%

160

43.75%

 

 

South

1,029

1,014

15

1.48%

949

8.43%

784

31.22%

 

 

    Salt

300

299

1

0.33%

266

12.78%

242

23.86%

 

 

    Non_Salt

729

714

15

2.10%

684

6.58%

542

34.45%

 

 

Total

2,333

2,283

50

2.19%

1,930

20.88%

1,730

34.86%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

4/22/24

4/19/24

% Change

Change

3/22/24

% Change

4/21/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

May-24

$37.21

$36.67

1.48%

$0.54

$34.52

7.80%

$45.62

-18.43%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

May-24

$41.12

$38.36

7.21%

$2.76

$37.52

9.61%

$35.32

16.43%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

May-24

$11.37

$10.40

9.37%

$0.97

$15.00

-24.17%

$29.96

-62.04%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

May-24

$36.92

$35.62

3.65%

$1.30

$35.56

3.82%

$50.12

-26.33%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

May-24

$29.28

$28.71

2.00%

$0.57

$28.58

2.48%

$39.46

-25.79%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

May-24

$25.75

$27.99

-8.01%

-$2.24

$24.03

7.16%

$49.73

-48.23%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

May-24

$29.04

$28.52

1.81%

$0.52

$28.03

3.60%

$43.96

-33.94%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

4/22/24

4/19/24

% Change

Change

3/22/24

% Change

4/21/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

May-24

$1.791

$1.752

2.23%

$0.04

$1.81

-1.16%

$3.15

-43.23%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

May-24

-$0.273

-$0.274

-0.22%

$0.00

-$0.20

39.63%

-$0.41

-33.40%

 

 

Chicago

May-24

-$0.204

-$0.220

7.86%

$0.02

-$0.13

58.24%

-$0.17

22.15%

 

 

Waha

May-24

-$2.228

-$2.161

-3.12%

-$0.07

-$1.42

57.00%

-$1.48

50.57%

 

 

Algonquin

May-24

-$0.185

-$0.183

-1.31%

$0.00

-$0.19

-4.88%

-$0.31

-39.77%

 

 

Aeco

May-24

-$0.720

-$0.745

-3.43%

$0.03

-$0.54

32.34%

-$1.06

-32.38%

 

 

Socal

May-24

-$0.360

-$0.420

-14.35%

$0.06

-$0.17

112.96%

-$0.13

187.46%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

4/22/24

4/19/24

% Change

Change

3/22/24

% Change

4/21/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

May-24

$0.775

$0.788

-1.61%

-$0.01

$0.82

-5.79%

$0.76

1.49%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

May-24

$0.770

$0.786

-2.09%

-$0.02

$0.82

-6.27%

$0.76

0.83%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

May-24

$0.198

$0.198

-0.06%

$0.00

$0.19

3.51%

$0.23

-12.49%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

May-24

$1.592

$1.606

-0.86%

-$0.01

$1.61

-0.99%

$1.49

6.81%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

May-24

$0.874

$0.895

-2.32%

-$0.02

$0.94

-7.50%

$0.86

1.69%

 

 

Far East Propane

May-24

$5.942

$6.000

-0.98%

-$0.06

$5.93

0.20%

$5.42

9.59%

 

 

Saudi Propane

May-24

$5.760

$5.790

-0.52%

-$0.03

$5.89

-2.21%

$5.21

10.63%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

4/22/24

4/19/24

% Change

Change

3/22/24

% Change

4/21/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Jun-24

$81.90

$82.22

-0.39%

-$0.32

$80.17

2.16%

$72.85

12.42%

 

 

Brent

Jun-24

$87.00

$87.29

-0.33%

-$0.29

$84.83

2.56%

$77.19

12.71%

 

 

WCS

Jun-24

-$12.00

-$12.00

0.00%

$0.00

-$11.44

4.90%

-$13.17

-8.88%

 

 

LLS

Jun-24

$83.94

$83.94

0.00%

$0.00

$82.00

2.36%

$74.38

12.85%

 

 

Mars

Jun-24

$82.03

$82.03

0.00%

$0.00

$79.74

2.87%

$68.78

19.26%

 

 

Sour

Jun-24

$82.87

$82.87

0.00%

$0.00

$80.51

2.94%

$69.68

18.94%

 

 

ESPO

Jun-24

$85.00

$85.29

-0.34%

-$0.29

$82.83

2.62%

$75.24

12.98%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

4/22/24

4/19/24

% Change

Change

3/22/24

% Change

4/21/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

May-24

$2.56

$2.55

0.47%

$0.01

$2.64

-3.14%

$2.42

5.48%

 

 

NY Gasoline

May-24

$2.66

$2.71

-1.62%

-$0.04

$2.72

-1.91%

$2.36

12.93%

 

 

GC Gasoline

May-24

$2.56

$2.61

-1.69%

-$0.04

$2.62

-1.99%

$2.26

13.50%

 

 

GC Jet

May-24

$2.49

$2.49

0.00%

$0.00

$2.52

-1.11%

$2.31

7.87%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

May-24

$1.71

$1.69

0.89%

$0.01

$1.67

1.79%

$1.69

1.07%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

May-24

$738.76

$741.04

-0.31%

-$2.28

$762.00

-3.05%

$661.98

11.60%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

May-24

$98.75

$98.89

-0.14%

-$0.14

$102.95

-4.08%

$91.32

8.14%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

4/22/24

4/19/24

% Change

Change

3/22/24

% Change

4/21/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Jun-24

59.55%

61.56%

-3.27%

-2.01%

53.72%

10.85%

45.22%

31.69%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Jun-24

73.93%

81.76%

-9.58%

-7.83%

49.68%

48.81%

47.57%

55.41%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Jun-24

199.78%

208.23%

-4.06%

-8.45%

99.72%

100.34%

57.88%

245.16%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Jun-24

62.12%

62.07%

0.08%

0.05%

55.75%

11.43%

46.20%

34.46%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Jun-24

57.73%

59.83%

-3.51%

-2.10%

47.48%

21.59%

45.86%

25.88%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Jun-24

39.51%

84.62%

-53.31%

-45.11%

26.15%

51.09%

50.04%

-21.04%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Jun-24

221.56%

216.23%

2.46%

5.33%

205.56%

7.78%

78.89%

180.85%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

4/22/24

4/19/24

% Change

Change

3/22/24

% Change

4/21/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Jun-24

EUR 29.16

EUR 30.76

-5.21%

-EUR 1.60

EUR 27.28

6.87%

EUR 52.13

-44.07%

 

 

NBP

Jun-24

GBP 72.34

GBP 76.15

-5.00%

-GBP 3.81

GBP 67.54

7.11%

GBP 133.79

-45.93%

 

 

German Base

Jun-24

EUR 67.19

EUR 69.61

-3.47%

-EUR 2.42

EUR 59.52

12.89%

EUR 121.38

-44.64%

 

 

UK Base

Jun-24

GBP 64.38

GBP 66.79

-3.60%

-GBP 2.40

GBP 62.85

2.44%

GBP 120.21

-46.44%

 

 

French Base

Jun-24

EUR 37.19

EUR 41.38

-10.12%

-EUR 4.19

EUR 51.21

-27.38%

EUR 121.92

-69.50%

 

 

Italian Base

Jun-24

EUR 89.23

EUR 92.37

-3.41%

-EUR 3.15

EUR 84.19

5.98%

EUR 136.38

-34.58%

 

 

JKM LNG

Jun-24

$9.73

$9.67

0.68%

$0.07

$9.45

2.98%

$17.60

-44.71%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

4/22/24

4/19/24

% Change

Change

3/22/24

% Change

4/21/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Jun-24

$29.16

$30.76

-5.21%

-$1.60

$27.28

6.87%

$52.13

-44.07%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Jun-24

$72.34

$76.15

-5.00%

-$3.81

$67.54

7.11%

$133.79

-45.93%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Jun-24

$67.19

$69.61

-3.47%

-$2.42

$59.52

12.89%

$121.38

-44.64%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Jun-24

$64.38

$66.79

-3.60%

-$2.40

$62.85

2.44%

$120.21

-46.44%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Jun-24

$37.19

$41.38

-10.12%

-$4.19

$51.21

-27.38%

$121.92

-69.50%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Jun-24

$89.23

$92.37

-3.41%

-$3.15

$84.19

5.98%

$136.38

-34.58%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Jun-24

$9.73

$9.67

0.68%

$0.07

$9.45

2.98%

$17.60

-44.71%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

04/20/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Middle Atlantic

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

E N Central

 

 

 

 

W N Central

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

South Atlantic

 

 

 

 

E S Central

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

W S Central

 

 

 

 

Mountain

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pacific

 

 

 

 

United States

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

04/20/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Middle Atlantic

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

E N Central

 

 

 

 

W N Central

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

South Atlantic

 

 

 

 

E S Central

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

W S Central

 

 

 

 

Mountain

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pacific

 

 

 

 

United States

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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