Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Apr-26-2024

Apr 26, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:27 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$1.525

$1.638

-6.90%

-$0.113

712

 

 

WTI

$84.26

$83.57

0.83%

$0.69

74,898

 

 

Brent

$89.62

$89.01

0.69%

$0.61

4,096

 

 

ULSD

$2.576

$2.550

0.98%

$0.025

2,731

 

 

RBOB

$2.770

$2.758

0.43%

$0.012

1,814

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$5.43

$5.44

-0.18%

-$0.01

Jun-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$28.85

$28.81

0.13%

$0.04

Jun-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$32.78

$30.09

8.95%

$2.69

May-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

04/19/24

619

2

-134

04/22/23

 

 

Canada

04/19/24

127

-14

22

04/22/23

 

 

International

Mar

971

13

41

Mar

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 4/16/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

94,240

93,781

93,764

17

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

83,584

83,221

83,384

-163

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

369,157

348,415

355,810

-7,395

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

164,559

143,655

132,970

10,685

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

127,783

118,907

121,315

-2,408

 

 

NYM Ethanol

38,386

37,634

38,032

-398

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

152,077

150,972

151,665

-693

 

 

RBOB

417,165

388,136

401,786

-13,650

 

 

HSC Basis

809,693

800,443

800,742

-299

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

04/19/19

 

 

 

4/19/24

4/12/24

Net Change

% Change

4/21/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

408

379

29

7.65%

390

4.62%

321

27.26%

 

 

Midwest

551

528

23

4.36%

468

17.74%

395

39.56%

 

 

Mountain

173

167

6

3.59%

90

92.22%

94

83.26%

 

 

Pacific

235

230

5

2.17%

90

161.11%

167

40.89%

 

 

South

1,057

1,029

28

2.72%

971

8.86%

813

30.08%

 

 

    Salt

309

300

9

3.00%

275

12.36%

253

22.04%

 

 

    Non_Salt

749

729

20

2.74%

695

7.77%

559

33.89%

 

 

Total

2,425

2,333

92

3.94%

2,009

20.71%

1,789

35.54%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

4/25/24

4/24/24

% Change

Change

3/27/24

% Change

4/26/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

May-24

$36.09

$33.59

7.44%

$2.50

$33.68

7.14%

$48.01

-24.83%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

May-24

$41.63

$41.00

1.52%

$0.62

$36.03

15.52%

$36.90

12.81%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

May-24

$6.87

$8.89

-22.71%

-$2.02

$14.40

-52.25%

$31.89

-78.45%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

May-24

$37.16

$32.66

13.78%

$4.50

$34.36

8.13%

$52.78

-29.59%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

May-24

$28.01

$27.09

3.38%

$0.91

$27.98

0.10%

$39.26

-28.66%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

May-24

$24.37

$23.59

3.31%

$0.78

$22.73

7.23%

$53.51

-54.46%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

May-24

$28.35

$26.10

8.59%

$2.24

$27.27

3.94%

$43.52

-34.87%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

4/25/24

4/24/24

% Change

Change

3/27/24

% Change

4/26/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

May-24

$1.638

$1.653

-0.91%

-$0.01

$1.72

-4.66%

$3.15

-47.93%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

May-24

-$0.282

-$0.200

41.21%

-$0.08

-$0.17

65.40%

-$0.38

-25.87%

 

 

Chicago

May-24

-$0.230

-$0.197

-14.30%

-$0.03

-$0.15

55.89%

-$0.18

30.81%

 

 

Waha

May-24

-$2.007

-$1.954

-2.73%

-$0.05

-$1.49

34.28%

-$1.56

29.05%

 

 

Algonquin

May-24

-$0.181

-$0.195

7.42%

$0.01

-$0.21

-15.15%

-$0.31

-41.36%

 

 

Aeco

May-24

-$0.755

-$0.759

-0.58%

$0.00

-$0.52

43.89%

-$1.05

-28.19%

 

 

Socal

May-24

-$0.348

-$0.359

-3.12%

$0.01

-$0.22

60.20%

-$0.23

51.15%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

4/25/24

4/24/24

% Change

Change

3/27/24

% Change

4/26/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

May-24

$0.783

$0.775

0.98%

$0.01

$0.83

-6.13%

$0.73

7.74%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

May-24

$0.770

$0.772

-0.32%

$0.00

$0.83

-7.23%

$0.73

5.66%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

May-24

$0.189

$0.194

-2.54%

$0.00

$0.18

3.48%

$0.23

-17.22%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

May-24

$1.628

$1.635

-0.46%

-$0.01

$1.59

2.28%

$1.46

11.40%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

May-24

$0.860

$0.868

-0.87%

-$0.01

$0.95

-9.28%

$0.83

3.88%

 

 

Far East Propane

May-24

$6.015

$6.044

-0.48%

-$0.03

$5.91

1.70%

$5.22

15.14%

 

 

Saudi Propane

May-24

$5.840

$5.860

-0.34%

-$0.02

$5.89

-0.85%

$5.04

15.82%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

4/25/24

4/24/24

% Change

Change

3/27/24

% Change

4/26/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Jun-24

$83.57

$82.81

0.91%

$0.76

$80.78

3.45%

$70.05

19.30%

 

 

Brent

Jun-24

$89.01

$88.02

1.11%

$0.99

$85.41

4.21%

$74.34

19.73%

 

 

WCS

Jun-24

-$12.60

-$12.85

-1.98%

$0.25

-$12.34

2.12%

-$12.62

-0.13%

 

 

LLS

Jun-24

$84.56

$84.95

-0.46%

-$0.39

$82.38

2.65%

$73.11

15.65%

 

 

Mars

Jun-24

$82.11

$82.60

-0.60%

-$0.49

$80.18

2.40%

$67.97

20.80%

 

 

Sour

Jun-24

$82.81

$83.35

-0.65%

-$0.54

$80.78

2.51%

$68.42

21.03%

 

 

ESPO

Jun-24

$87.01

$86.02

1.14%

$0.99

$83.41

4.32%

$71.64

21.45%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

4/25/24

4/24/24

% Change

Change

3/27/24

% Change

4/26/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

May-24

$2.56

$2.55

0.27%

$0.01

$2.60

-1.58%

$2.34

9.36%

 

 

NY Gasoline

May-24

$2.76

$2.73

1.02%

$0.03

$2.64

4.35%

$2.28

21.27%

 

 

GC Gasoline

May-24

$2.66

$2.63

1.06%

$0.03

$2.55

4.52%

$2.18

22.24%

 

 

GC Jet

May-24

$2.48

$2.50

-0.80%

-$0.02

$2.52

-1.51%

$1.98

25.44%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

May-24

$1.71

$1.71

0.00%

$0.00

$1.63

4.59%

$1.72

-0.41%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

May-24

$733.25

$741.07

-1.06%

-$7.82

$753.74

-2.72%

$636.12

15.27%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

May-24

$100.19

$100.14

0.05%

$0.05

$101.94

-1.71%

$91.62

9.35%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

4/25/24

4/24/24

% Change

Change

3/27/24

% Change

4/26/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Jun-24

56.81%

58.87%

-3.50%

-2.06%

52.57%

8.07%

51.70%

9.88%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Jun-24

70.07%

74.50%

-5.95%

-4.43%

47.09%

48.80%

54.45%

28.69%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Jun-24

264.53%

269.29%

-1.77%

-4.76%

90.55%

192.14%

61.97%

326.87%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Jun-24

65.86%

69.93%

-5.82%

-4.07%

54.55%

20.73%

52.77%

24.81%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Jun-24

53.10%

51.47%

3.17%

1.63%

45.70%

16.19%

46.96%

13.07%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Jun-24

85.33%

81.01%

5.33%

4.32%

35.93%

137.49%

50.56%

68.77%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Jun-24

186.25%

234.65%

-20.63%

-48.40%

205.11%

-9.20%

78.93%

135.97%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

4/25/24

4/24/24

% Change

Change

3/27/24

% Change

4/26/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Jun-24

EUR 29.91

EUR 29.16

2.55%

EUR 0.75

EUR 27.83

7.48%

EUR 52.55

-43.08%

 

 

NBP

Jun-24

GBP 74.38

GBP 72.46

2.65%

GBP 1.92

GBP 69.14

7.57%

GBP 132.59

-43.90%

 

 

German Base

Jun-24

EUR 68.44

EUR 67.41

1.53%

EUR 1.03

EUR 59.83

14.39%

EUR 119.76

-42.85%

 

 

UK Base

Jun-24

GBP 64.87

GBP 63.15

2.73%

GBP 1.72

GBP 63.58

2.01%

GBP 118.70

-45.35%

 

 

French Base

Jun-24

EUR 37.90

EUR 38.08

-0.48%

-EUR 0.18

EUR 48.14

-21.27%

EUR 113.28

-66.54%

 

 

Italian Base

Jun-24

EUR 88.45

EUR 86.79

1.92%

EUR 1.67

EUR 84.71

4.43%

EUR 133.67

-33.83%

 

 

JKM LNG

Jun-24

$10.29

$9.91

3.80%

$0.38

$9.52

8.11%

$17.67

-41.77%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

4/25/24

4/24/24

% Change

Change

3/27/24

% Change

4/26/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Jun-24

$29.91

$29.16

2.55%

$0.75

$27.83

7.48%

$52.55

-43.08%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Jun-24

$74.38

$72.46

2.65%

$1.92

$69.14

7.57%

$132.59

-43.90%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Jun-24

$68.44

$67.41

1.53%

$1.03

$59.83

14.39%

$119.76

-42.85%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Jun-24

$64.87

$63.15

2.73%

$1.72

$63.58

2.01%

$118.70

-45.35%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Jun-24

$37.90

$38.08

-0.48%

-$0.18

$48.14

-21.27%

$113.28

-66.54%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Jun-24

$88.45

$86.79

1.92%

$1.67

$84.71

4.43%

$133.67

-33.83%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Jun-24

$10.29

$9.91

3.80%

$0.38

$9.52

8.11%

$17.67

-41.77%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

04/20/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

-2

0

0

-2

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

-5

0

0

-9

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

1

1

-1

1

0

-3

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

7

6

5

7

2

3

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

27

11

6

134

-20

-84

-13.00%

-39.00%

 

 

E S Central

24

19

22

34

-11

-12

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

48

26

18

162

29

-33

22.00%

-17.00%

 

 

Mountain

6

-2

2

9

-24

-2

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

0

-3

0

0

-14

0

NA

NA

 

 

United States

13

6

4

46

-5

-22

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

04/20/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

109

-24

26

5,354

-786

98

-13.00%

2.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

79

-33

19

4,896

-660

132

-12.00%

3.00%

 

 

E N Central

71

-44

-16

5,120

-987

-303

-16.00%

-6.00%

 

 

W N Central

86

-19

-18

5,369

-1,037

-842

-16.00%

-14.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

12

-27

-7

2,380

-378

41

-14.00%

2.00%

 

 

E S Central

14

-33

-19

3,005

-484

58

-14.00%

2.00%

 

 

W S Central

8

-11

-10

2,031

-232

-11

-10.00%

-1.00%

 

 

Mountain

89

-8

-23

4,529

-269

-637

-6.00%

-12.00%

 

 

Pacific

69

1

-33

2,801

-99

-532

-3.00%

-16.00%

 

 

United States

54

-24

-10

3,737

-522

-197

-12.00%

-5.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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