Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Apr-29-2024

Apr 29, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 7:50 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$1.933

$1.614

19.76%

$0.319

21,536

 

 

WTI

$83.04

$83.85

-0.97%

-$0.81

81,147

 

 

Brent

$88.55

$89.50

-1.06%

-$0.95

3,620

 

 

ULSD

$2.544

$2.548

-0.18%

-$0.005

1,160

 

 

RBOB

$2.760

$2.765

-0.17%

-$0.005

1,086

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$5.51

$5.65

-2.48%

-$0.14

Jun-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$29.39

$28.83

1.92%

$0.55

Jun-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

NA

NA

NA

NA

May-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

04/26/24

613

-6

-142

04/29/23

 

 

Canada

04/26/24

118

-9

25

04/29/23

 

 

International

Mar

971

13

41

Mar

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 4/23/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

97,395

96,922

96,943

-21

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

85,896

85,538

85,639

-101

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

370,039

348,931

356,167

-7,236

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

167,796

146,921

137,793

9,128

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

140,432

131,056

132,766

-1,710

 

 

NYM Ethanol

39,746

39,083

39,424

-341

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

156,172

155,170

155,655

-485

 

 

RBOB

416,152

387,965

400,617

-12,652

 

 

HSC Basis

836,488

827,498

830,284

-2,786

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

04/19/19

 

 

 

4/19/24

4/12/24

Net Change

% Change

4/21/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

408

379

29

7.65%

390

4.62%

321

27.26%

 

 

Midwest

551

528

23

4.36%

468

17.74%

395

39.56%

 

 

Mountain

173

167

6

3.59%

90

92.22%

94

83.26%

 

 

Pacific

235

230

5

2.17%

90

161.11%

167

40.89%

 

 

South

1,057

1,029

28

2.72%

971

8.86%

813

30.08%

 

 

    Salt

309

300

9

3.00%

275

12.36%

253

22.04%

 

 

    Non_Salt

749

729

20

2.74%

695

7.77%

559

33.89%

 

 

Total

2,425

2,333

92

3.94%

2,009

20.71%

1,789

35.54%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

4/26/24

4/25/24

% Change

Change

3/28/24

% Change

4/27/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

May-24

$35.49

$36.09

-1.67%

-$0.60

$36.05

-1.55%

$45.00

-21.15%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

May-24

$42.36

$41.63

1.77%

$0.74

$38.56

9.87%

$35.64

18.85%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

May-24

$6.86

$6.87

-0.22%

-$0.02

$15.22

-54.94%

$29.82

-77.00%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

May-24

$36.52

$37.16

-1.72%

-$0.64

$36.86

-0.92%

$49.24

-25.82%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

May-24

$27.71

$28.01

-1.06%

-$0.30

$28.86

-3.98%

$37.85

-26.78%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

May-24

$25.28

$24.37

3.72%

$0.91

$24.18

4.53%

$51.87

-51.26%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

May-24

$27.71

$28.35

-2.26%

-$0.64

$28.72

-3.51%

$42.10

-34.19%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

4/26/24

4/25/24

% Change

Change

3/28/24

% Change

4/27/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Jun-24

$1.923

$1.986

-3.17%

-$0.06

$2.00

-3.71%

$3.32

-42.08%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Jun-24

-$0.224

-$0.211

6.15%

-$0.01

-$0.17

33.83%

-$0.39

-42.34%

 

 

Chicago

Jun-24

-$0.262

-$0.254

-3.09%

-$0.01

-$0.19

40.21%

-$0.23

14.65%

 

 

Waha

Jun-24

-$1.385

-$1.329

-4.24%

-$0.06

-$1.22

13.47%

-$1.39

-0.40%

 

 

Algonquin

Jun-24

-$0.066

-$0.032

-108.86%

-$0.03

$0.41

-116.03%

-$0.30

-77.85%

 

 

Aeco

Jun-24

-$1.166

-$1.190

-1.98%

$0.02

-$0.71

64.18%

-$1.25

-6.43%

 

 

Socal

Jun-24

-$0.388

-$0.367

5.67%

-$0.02

-$0.09

354.63%

-$0.10

293.71%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

4/26/24

4/25/24

% Change

Change

3/28/24

% Change

4/27/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

May-24

$0.794

$0.783

1.43%

$0.01

$0.83

-4.22%

$0.72

10.43%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

May-24

$0.796

$0.770

3.43%

$0.03

$0.83

-4.48%

$0.71

11.50%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

May-24

$0.178

$0.189

-5.95%

-$0.01

$0.19

-3.98%

$0.22

-20.61%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

May-24

$1.645

$1.628

1.07%

$0.02

$1.60

2.97%

$1.40

17.64%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

May-24

$0.889

$0.860

3.31%

$0.03

$0.94

-5.40%

$0.79

12.01%

 

 

Far East Propane

May-24

$6.065

$6.015

0.83%

$0.05

$5.95

1.94%

$5.15

17.84%

 

 

Saudi Propane

May-24

$5.755

$5.840

-1.45%

-$0.08

$5.96

-3.44%

$4.93

16.66%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

4/26/24

4/25/24

% Change

Change

3/28/24

% Change

4/27/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Jun-24

$83.85

$83.57

0.33%

$0.28

$82.42

1.74%

$70.16

19.51%

 

 

Brent

Jun-24

$89.50

$89.01

0.55%

$0.49

$87.00

2.87%

$74.35

20.38%

 

 

WCS

Jun-24

-$12.60

-$12.60

0.00%

$0.00

-$12.23

3.00%

-$13.06

-3.49%

 

 

LLS

Jun-24

$85.24

$84.56

0.80%

$0.68

$83.54

2.03%

$72.30

17.90%

 

 

Mars

Jun-24

$82.89

$82.11

0.95%

$0.78

$81.31

1.94%

$67.72

22.40%

 

 

Sour

Jun-24

$83.55

$82.81

0.89%

$0.75

$81.99

1.91%

$68.04

22.80%

 

 

ESPO

Jun-24

$87.50

$87.01

0.56%

$0.49

$85.00

2.94%

$72.73

20.30%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

4/26/24

4/25/24

% Change

Change

3/28/24

% Change

4/27/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

May-24

$2.55

$2.56

-0.27%

-$0.01

$2.62

-2.48%

$2.34

9.11%

 

 

NY Gasoline

May-24

$2.76

$2.76

-0.11%

$0.00

$2.72

1.36%

$2.27

21.35%

 

 

GC Gasoline

May-24

$2.66

$2.66

-0.11%

$0.00

$2.62

1.41%

$2.17

22.33%

 

 

GC Jet

May-24

$2.52

$2.48

1.69%

$0.04

$2.57

-2.02%

$2.12

18.96%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

May-24

$1.71

$1.71

-0.29%

$0.00

$1.68

1.37%

$1.60

6.90%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

May-24

$747.23

$733.25

1.91%

$13.97

$763.49

-2.13%

$636.84

17.33%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

May-24

$100.11

$100.19

-0.08%

-$0.08

$101.59

-1.46%

$89.35

12.05%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

4/26/24

4/25/24

% Change

Change

3/28/24

% Change

4/27/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Jun-24

55.85%

56.81%

-1.69%

-0.96%

50.96%

9.60%

47.66%

17.18%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Jun-24

70.58%

70.07%

0.73%

0.51%

49.37%

42.96%

52.16%

35.31%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Jun-24

265.98%

264.53%

0.55%

1.45%

99.13%

168.31%

57.80%

360.17%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Jun-24

67.60%

65.86%

2.64%

1.74%

54.48%

24.08%

48.20%

40.25%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Jun-24

84.98%

53.10%

60.04%

31.88%

47.58%

78.60%

45.33%

87.47%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Jun-24

92.88%

85.33%

8.85%

7.55%

28.26%

228.66%

47.00%

97.62%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Jun-24

157.92%

186.25%

-15.21%

-28.33%

203.53%

-22.41%

78.25%

101.81%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

4/26/24

4/25/24

% Change

Change

3/28/24

% Change

4/27/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Jun-24

EUR 29.42

EUR 29.91

-1.65%

-EUR 0.49

EUR 27.55

6.77%

EUR 55.12

-46.64%

 

 

NBP

Jun-24

GBP 72.59

GBP 74.38

-2.40%

-GBP 1.79

GBP 67.98

6.79%

GBP 136.59

-46.86%

 

 

German Base

Jun-24

EUR 67.45

EUR 68.44

-1.45%

-EUR 0.99

EUR 59.93

12.55%

EUR 125.19

-46.13%

 

 

UK Base

Jun-24

GBP 61.57

GBP 64.87

-5.08%

-GBP 3.30

GBP 60.20

2.28%

GBP 123.76

-50.25%

 

 

French Base

Jun-24

EUR 34.37

EUR 37.90

-9.33%

-EUR 3.54

EUR 47.75

-28.03%

EUR 110.97

-69.03%

 

 

Italian Base

Jun-24

EUR 88.43

EUR 88.45

-0.03%

-EUR 0.03

EUR 88.09

0.38%

EUR 130.91

-32.45%

 

 

JKM LNG

Jun-24

$9.96

$10.29

-3.18%

-$0.33

$9.49

5.03%

$16.10

-38.11%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

4/26/24

4/25/24

% Change

Change

3/28/24

% Change

4/27/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Jun-24

$29.42

$29.91

-1.65%

-$0.49

$27.55

6.77%

$55.12

-46.64%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Jun-24

$72.59

$74.38

-2.40%

-$1.79

$67.98

6.79%

$136.59

-46.86%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Jun-24

$67.45

$68.44

-1.45%

-$0.99

$59.93

12.55%

$125.19

-46.13%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Jun-24

$61.57

$64.87

-5.08%

-$3.30

$60.20

2.28%

$123.76

-50.25%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Jun-24

$34.37

$37.90

-9.33%

-$3.54

$47.75

-28.03%

$110.97

-69.03%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Jun-24

$88.43

$88.45

-0.03%

-$0.03

$88.09

0.38%

$130.91

-32.45%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Jun-24

$9.96

$10.29

-3.18%

-$0.33

$9.49

5.03%

$16.10

-38.11%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

04/27/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

0

0

-2

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

-9

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

1

0

-3

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

0

-2

0

7

0

3

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

15

-5

-6

149

-25

-90

-14.00%

-38.00%

 

 

E S Central

6

-1

6

40

-12

-7

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

32

4

15

195

34

-17

21.00%

-8.00%

 

 

Mountain

9

-2

0

18

-26

-3

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

0

-4

0

0

-18

0

NA

NA

 

 

United States

7

-3

1

54

-6

-21

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

04/27/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

139

24

24

5,493

-762

120

-12.00%

2.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

113

18

20

5,009

-642

142

-11.00%

3.00%

 

 

E N Central

109

11

-33

5,228

-977

-339

-16.00%

-6.00%

 

 

W N Central

88

0

-59

5,456

-1,038

-893

-16.00%

-14.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

45

14

7

2,426

-363

44

-13.00%

2.00%

 

 

E S Central

50

12

-18

3,055

-471

39

-13.00%

1.00%

 

 

W S Central

22

9

-15

2,053

-223

-28

-10.00%

-1.00%

 

 

Mountain

73

-13

-26

4,603

-281

-655

-6.00%

-12.00%

 

 

Pacific

66

5

29

2,868

-93

-497

-3.00%

-15.00%

 

 

United States

75

9

-4

3,812

-512

-202

-12.00%

-5.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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