Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Aug-01-2024

Aug 1, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:03 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.066

$2.036

1.47%

$0.030

24,233

 

 

WTI

$78.24

$77.91

0.42%

$0.33

94,675

 

 

Brent

$81.23

$80.72

0.63%

$0.51

11,254

 

 

ULSD

$2.450

$2.415

1.41%

$0.034

6,281

 

 

RBOB

$2.451

$2.482

-1.26%

-$0.031

9,731

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.00

$4.00

0.00%

$0.00

Oct-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$20.74

$20.69

0.24%

$0.05

Sep-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

NA

NA

NA

NA

Aug-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

07/26/24

589

3

-75

07/29/23

 

 

Canada

07/26/24

211

14

18

07/29/23

 

 

International

June

957

4

-10

June

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 7/23/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

91,154

90,612

90,612

0

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

83,426

83,267

82,697

570

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

363,415

347,942

351,158

-3,216

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

154,799

130,654

129,597

1,057

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

134,915

124,532

125,022

-490

 

 

NYM Ethanol

41,736

40,893

41,338

-445

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

157,814

156,686

157,577

-891

 

 

RBOB

398,408

376,218

380,759

-4,541

 

 

HSC Basis

832,086

824,450

824,149

301

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$88.00

$85.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.50

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.90

12.90

13.20

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

14.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

07/19/19

 

 

 

7/19/24

7/12/24

Net Change

% Change

7/21/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

697

686

11

1.60%

670

4.03%

613

13.67%

 

 

Midwest

827

814

13

1.60%

757

9.25%

710

16.51%

 

 

Mountain

251

248

3

1.21%

189

32.80%

173

45.25%

 

 

Pacific

289

289

0

0.00%

232

24.57%

263

9.89%

 

 

South

1,167

1,173

-6

-0.51%

1,139

2.46%

1,026

13.70%

 

 

    Salt

313

318

-5

-1.57%

310

0.97%

268

16.62%

 

 

    Non_Salt

854

855

-1

-0.12%

829

3.02%

758

12.69%

 

 

Total

3,231

3,209

22

0.69%

2,987

8.17%

2,785

16.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/31/24

7/30/24

% Change

Change

7/2/24

% Change

8/1/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Aug-24

$56.79

$58.65

-3.18%

-$1.87

$58.41

-2.77%

$53.98

5.21%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Aug-24

$97.69

$79.37

23.08%

$18.32

$131.47

-25.69%

$94.73

3.13%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Aug-24

$70.96

$61.68

15.04%

$9.28

$83.22

-14.74%

$115.16

-38.38%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Aug-24

$46.68

$49.44

-5.60%

-$2.77

$55.94

-16.55%

$60.21

-22.48%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Aug-24

$57.13

$52.87

8.05%

$4.26

$51.25

11.47%

$52.26

9.32%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Aug-24

$122.65

$106.89

14.74%

$15.75

$142.75

-14.08%

$199.73

-38.59%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Aug-24

$47.13

$51.26

-8.06%

-$4.13

$53.69

-12.22%

$51.44

-8.38%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/31/24

7/30/24

% Change

Change

7/2/24

% Change

8/1/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Sep-24

$2.036

$2.126

-4.23%

-$0.09

$2.45

-17.03%

$3.31

-38.55%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Sep-24

-$0.302

-$0.345

-12.35%

$0.04

-$0.43

-30.43%

-$0.24

25.03%

 

 

Chicago

Sep-24

-$0.294

-$0.308

4.59%

$0.01

-$0.52

-43.78%

-$0.25

15.46%

 

 

Waha

Sep-24

-$1.851

-$1.669

-10.92%

-$0.18

-$1.49

24.01%

-$0.53

249.75%

 

 

Algonquin

Sep-24

-$0.382

-$0.352

-8.56%

-$0.03

-$0.46

-17.50%

-$0.62

-38.00%

 

 

Aeco

Sep-24

-$1.349

-$1.326

1.73%

-$0.02

-$1.88

-28.40%

-$1.09

23.53%

 

 

Socal

Sep-24

$0.240

$0.254

-5.44%

-$0.01

$0.52

-53.65%

$1.61

-85.08%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/31/24

7/30/24

% Change

Change

7/2/24

% Change

8/1/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Aug-24

$0.779

$0.767

1.49%

$0.01

$0.85

-7.96%

$0.74

4.79%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Aug-24

$0.784

$0.771

1.65%

$0.01

$0.85

-7.78%

$0.75

4.46%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Aug-24

$0.126

$0.125

1.44%

$0.00

$0.16

-22.11%

$0.25

-49.74%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Aug-24

$1.514

$1.450

4.43%

$0.06

$1.62

-6.25%

$1.46

3.48%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Aug-24

$0.911

$0.901

1.13%

$0.01

$0.95

-3.69%

$0.81

11.80%

 

 

Far East Propane

Aug-24

$6.381

$6.260

1.94%

$0.12

$6.54

-2.36%

$5.50

16.00%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Aug-24

$5.973

$5.830

2.45%

$0.14

$5.91

1.07%

$4.94

20.83%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/31/24

7/30/24

% Change

Change

7/2/24

% Change

8/1/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Sep-24

$77.91

$74.73

4.08%

$3.18

$81.91

-4.88%

$76.05

2.45%

 

 

Brent

Sep-24

$81.13

$78.63

3.08%

$2.50

$86.24

-5.92%

$80.59

0.67%

 

 

WCS

Sep-24

-$14.90

-$15.43

-3.55%

$0.53

-$14.85

0.31%

-$13.60

9.52%

 

 

LLS

Sep-24

$78.94

$75.96

3.77%

$2.98

$83.72

-5.71%

$77.83

1.43%

 

 

Mars

Sep-24

$75.83

$73.49

3.09%

$2.34

$81.63

-7.10%

$74.41

1.91%

 

 

Sour

Sep-24

$78.20

$75.06

4.01%

$3.13

$82.28

-4.96%

$75.35

3.78%

 

 

ESPO

Sep-24

$79.13

$76.63

3.16%

$2.50

$84.24

-6.06%

$78.59

0.69%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/31/24

7/30/24

% Change

Change

7/2/24

% Change

8/1/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Aug-24

$2.42

$2.37

2.07%

$0.05

$2.63

-7.95%

$2.66

-9.02%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Aug-24

$2.41

$2.37

1.73%

$0.04

$2.57

-6.41%

$2.44

-1.31%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Aug-24

$2.31

$2.27

1.81%

$0.04

$2.47

-6.67%

$2.34

-1.37%

 

 

GC Jet

Aug-24

$2.31

$2.11

9.37%

$0.20

$2.62

-11.82%

$2.44

-5.32%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Aug-24

$1.78

$1.78

-0.17%

$0.00

$1.86

-4.19%

$1.84

-3.36%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Aug-24

$700.49

$680.65

2.91%

$19.84

$768.00

-8.79%

$723.39

-3.17%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Aug-24

$95.83

$93.72

2.25%

$2.11

$103.90

-7.76%

$98.79

-3.00%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/31/24

7/30/24

% Change

Change

7/2/24

% Change

8/1/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Sep-24

64.35%

61.32%

4.94%

3.03%

58.59%

9.83%

44.54%

44.48%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Sep-24

74.31%

69.16%

7.45%

5.15%

66.69%

11.43%

53.04%

40.10%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Sep-24

470.84%

320.01%

47.13%

150.83%

153.33%

207.08%

50.26%

836.81%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Sep-24

76.82%

74.45%

3.18%

2.37%

66.38%

15.73%

44.85%

71.28%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Sep-24

55.71%

64.72%

-13.92%

-9.01%

60.74%

-8.28%

44.81%

24.32%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Sep-24

221.44%

224.91%

-1.54%

-3.47%

79.04%

180.16%

79.71%

177.81%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Sep-24

282.35%

259.54%

8.79%

22.81%

304.19%

-7.18%

101.87%

177.17%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/31/24

7/30/24

% Change

Change

7/2/24

% Change

8/1/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Sep-24

EUR 35.71

EUR 35.19

1.47%

EUR 0.52

EUR 34.62

3.14%

EUR 49.41

-27.72%

 

 

NBP

Sep-24

GBP 86.58

GBP 85.06

1.79%

GBP 1.52

GBP 84.06

3.00%

GBP 124.99

-30.73%

 

 

German Base

Sep-24

EUR 83.60

EUR 82.07

1.86%

EUR 1.53

EUR 85.77

-2.53%

EUR 145.50

-42.54%

 

 

UK Base

Sep-24

GBP 75.50

GBP 74.53

1.29%

GBP 0.97

GBP 76.79

-1.68%

GBP 106.88

-29.36%

 

 

French Base

Sep-24

EUR 55.37

EUR 53.55

3.40%

EUR 1.82

EUR 62.69

-11.67%

EUR 141.91

-60.98%

 

 

Italian Base

Sep-24

EUR 112.33

EUR 108.86

3.18%

EUR 3.47

EUR 106.31

5.66%

EUR 150.37

-25.30%

 

 

JKM LNG

Sep-24

$12.58

$12.19

3.17%

$0.39

$12.44

1.11%

$15.50

-18.84%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/31/24

7/30/24

% Change

Change

7/2/24

% Change

8/1/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Sep-24

$35.71

$35.19

1.47%

$0.52

$34.62

3.14%

$49.41

-27.72%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Sep-24

$86.58

$85.06

1.79%

$1.52

$84.06

3.00%

$124.99

-30.73%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Sep-24

$83.60

$82.07

1.86%

$1.53

$85.77

-2.53%

$145.50

-42.54%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Sep-24

$75.50

$74.53

1.29%

$0.97

$76.79

-1.68%

$106.88

-29.36%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Sep-24

$55.37

$53.55

3.40%

$1.82

$62.69

-11.67%

$141.91

-60.98%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Sep-24

$112.33

$108.86

3.18%

$3.47

$106.31

5.66%

$150.37

-25.30%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Sep-24

$12.58

$12.19

3.17%

$0.39

$12.44

1.11%

$15.50

-18.84%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/27/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

44

-1

-10

376

152

53

68.00%

16.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

61

2

-2

475

121

84

34.00%

21.00%

 

 

E N Central

43

-15

-16

434

23

59

6.00%

16.00%

 

 

W N Central

63

-9

-19

530

-3

-35

-1.00%

-6.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

99

1

-4

1,211

161

93

15.00%

8.00%

 

 

E S Central

86

-9

-9

1,013

166

148

20.00%

17.00%

 

 

W S Central

97

-29

-42

1,504

172

-27

13.00%

-2.00%

 

 

Mountain

92

12

-18

736

66

89

10.00%

14.00%

 

 

Pacific

73

27

-2

406

89

107

28.00%

35.00%

 

 

United States

74

-1

-12

758

104

67

16.00%

10.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/27/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

1

-2

0

2

-7

1

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

-3

0

2

-2

2

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

1

-2

1

10

3

6

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

0

-3

0

8

-5

-6

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

E S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

0

-2

0

4

-14

0

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

2

-2

1

3

-19

0

NA

NA

 

 

United States

1

-1

0

3

-5

1

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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