Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Aug-06-2024

Aug 6, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:57 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.000

$1.942

2.99%

$0.058

39,866

 

 

WTI

$72.23

$72.94

-0.97%

-$0.71

125,356

 

 

Brent

$75.67

$76.30

-0.83%

-$0.63

16,049

 

 

ULSD

$2.282

$2.299

-0.72%

-$0.017

9,984

 

 

RBOB

$2.309

$2.334

-1.05%

-$0.025

12,865

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.14

$4.10

0.98%

$0.04

Oct-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$20.17

$20.24

-0.32%

-$0.07

Sep-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$41.72

$40.89

2.03%

$0.83

Sep-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

08/02/24

586

-3

-73

08/05/23

 

 

Canada

08/02/24

219

8

31

08/05/23

 

 

International

July

934

-23

-27

July

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 7/30/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

93,762

93,230

92,918

312

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

85,724

85,555

84,663

892

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

346,393

331,536

334,394

-2,858

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

162,325

138,605

136,559

2,046

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

150,629

141,545

142,224

-679

 

 

NYM Ethanol

46,253

45,359

45,845

-486

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

161,329

160,270

161,122

-852

 

 

RBOB

382,430

362,010

364,348

-2,338

 

 

HSC Basis

840,775

833,436

833,051

385

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$88.00

$85.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.50

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.90

12.90

13.20

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

14.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

07/26/19

 

 

 

7/26/24

7/19/24

Net Change

% Change

7/28/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

711

697

14

2.01%

680

4.56%

630

12.93%

 

 

Midwest

842

827

15

1.81%

775

8.65%

729

15.53%

 

 

Mountain

253

251

2

0.80%

191

32.46%

176

43.75%

 

 

Pacific

286

289

-3

-1.04%

230

24.35%

262

9.33%

 

 

South

1,157

1,167

-10

-0.86%

1,124

2.94%

1,023

13.14%

 

 

    Salt

307

313

-6

-1.92%

297

3.37%

261

17.71%

 

 

    Non_Salt

851

854

-3

-0.35%

828

2.78%

762

11.65%

 

 

Total

3,249

3,231

18

0.56%

3,001

8.26%

2,819

15.27%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/5/24

8/2/24

% Change

Change

7/8/24

% Change

8/4/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Sep-24

$45.98

$45.04

2.09%

$0.94

$54.29

-15.30%

$44.61

3.08%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Sep-24

$68.65

$66.97

2.51%

$1.68

$81.34

-15.60%

$54.91

25.02%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Sep-24

$51.50

$52.00

-0.96%

-$0.50

$55.25

-6.79%

$93.86

-45.13%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Sep-24

$44.40

$43.60

1.85%

$0.81

$53.95

-17.70%

$49.58

-10.44%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Sep-24

$41.71

$40.79

2.27%

$0.92

$45.34

-8.01%

$42.10

-0.93%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Sep-24

$79.98

$83.53

-4.25%

-$3.55

$96.02

-16.70%

$130.57

-38.74%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Sep-24

$38.38

$37.53

2.27%

$0.85

$44.92

-14.55%

$42.20

-9.05%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/5/24

8/2/24

% Change

Change

7/8/24

% Change

8/4/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Sep-24

$1.942

$1.967

-1.27%

-$0.02

$2.39

-18.68%

$3.30

-41.19%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Sep-24

-$0.281

-$0.321

-12.38%

$0.04

-$0.43

-34.28%

-$0.25

13.31%

 

 

Chicago

Sep-24

-$0.301

-$0.321

6.51%

$0.02

-$0.54

-44.21%

-$0.25

22.79%

 

 

Waha

Sep-24

-$1.940

-$2.072

-6.38%

$0.13

-$1.45

33.82%

-$0.49

298.89%

 

 

Algonquin

Sep-24

-$0.338

-$0.368

7.97%

$0.03

-$0.48

-29.89%

-$0.70

-51.33%

 

 

Aeco

Sep-24

-$1.323

-$1.359

-2.69%

$0.04

-$1.91

-30.75%

-$1.15

15.35%

 

 

Socal

Sep-24

$0.153

$0.120

27.05%

$0.03

$0.03

452.71%

$1.67

-90.86%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/5/24

8/2/24

% Change

Change

7/8/24

% Change

8/4/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Sep-24

$0.728

$0.733

-0.69%

-$0.01

$0.85

-14.42%

$0.75

-2.88%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Sep-24

$0.728

$0.731

-0.52%

$0.00

$0.85

-14.79%

$0.76

-3.67%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Sep-24

$0.142

$0.140

1.44%

$0.00

$0.18

-19.12%

$0.26

-44.43%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Sep-24

$1.450

$1.443

0.51%

$0.01

$1.59

-8.58%

$1.52

-4.32%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Sep-24

$0.857

$0.865

-0.93%

-$0.01

$0.96

-10.64%

$0.83

3.03%

 

 

Far East Propane

Sep-24

$6.280

$6.203

1.25%

$0.08

$6.37

-1.37%

$5.59

12.34%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Sep-24

$5.870

$5.880

-0.17%

-$0.01

$5.91

-0.68%

$5.13

14.33%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/5/24

8/2/24

% Change

Change

7/8/24

% Change

8/4/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Sep-24

$72.94

$73.52

-0.80%

-$0.58

$81.52

-10.53%

$76.82

-5.05%

 

 

Brent

Sep-24

$76.47

$77.07

-0.78%

-$0.59

$85.75

-10.82%

$81.39

-6.04%

 

 

WCS

Sep-24

-$14.73

-$14.46

1.79%

-$0.26

-$15.35

-4.06%

-$14.16

3.99%

 

 

LLS

Sep-24

$74.17

$74.57

-0.53%

-$0.40

$82.90

-10.53%

$78.49

-5.51%

 

 

Mars

Sep-24

$71.17

$72.15

-1.38%

-$0.98

$80.71

-11.82%

$76.01

-6.38%

 

 

Sour

Sep-24

$74.38

$73.69

0.92%

$0.68

$81.42

-8.65%

$76.68

-3.00%

 

 

ESPO

Sep-24

$74.47

$75.07

-0.80%

-$0.59

$83.75

-11.08%

$79.39

-6.19%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/5/24

8/2/24

% Change

Change

7/8/24

% Change

8/4/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Sep-24

$2.32

$2.32

0.09%

$0.00

$2.59

-10.36%

$2.66

-12.95%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Sep-24

$2.35

$2.32

1.64%

$0.04

$2.50

-5.99%

$2.42

-2.85%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Sep-24

$2.25

$2.22

1.71%

$0.04

$2.40

-6.24%

$2.32

-2.97%

 

 

GC Jet

Sep-24

$2.19

$2.24

-2.06%

-$0.05

$2.55

-13.98%

$2.43

-9.84%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Sep-24

$1.79

$1.80

-1.00%

-$0.02

$1.78

0.22%

$1.83

-2.14%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Sep-24

$666.59

$674.44

-1.16%

-$7.84

$749.96

-11.12%

$747.52

-10.83%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Sep-24

$89.45

$91.89

-2.65%

-$2.44

$102.16

-12.44%

$100.81

-11.26%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/5/24

8/2/24

% Change

Change

7/8/24

% Change

8/4/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Sep-24

69.54%

65.64%

5.94%

3.90%

56.09%

23.98%

43.12%

61.27%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Sep-24

77.48%

76.98%

0.65%

0.50%

62.70%

23.57%

52.33%

48.06%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Sep-24

1273.85%

1312.38%

-2.94%

-38.53%

200.50%

535.34%

50.84%

2405.61%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Sep-24

83.07%

79.20%

4.89%

3.87%

62.05%

33.88%

43.70%

90.09%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Sep-24

62.40%

61.14%

2.06%

1.26%

60.30%

3.48%

41.82%

49.21%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Sep-24

263.54%

263.25%

0.11%

0.29%

152.54%

72.77%

74.15%

255.41%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Sep-24

246.67%

263.10%

-6.24%

-16.43%

367.00%

-32.79%

102.03%

141.76%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/5/24

8/2/24

% Change

Change

7/8/24

% Change

8/4/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Sep-24

EUR 35.83

EUR 37.10

-3.44%

-EUR 1.28

EUR 33.29

7.61%

EUR 48.60

-26.28%

 

 

NBP

Sep-24

GBP 87.70

GBP 90.89

-3.52%

-GBP 3.19

GBP 79.90

9.75%

GBP 124.04

-29.30%

 

 

German Base

Sep-24

EUR 84.87

EUR 87.18

-2.64%

-EUR 2.31

EUR 81.19

4.54%

EUR 143.76

-40.96%

 

 

UK Base

Sep-24

GBP 75.18

GBP 77.25

-2.69%

-GBP 2.08

GBP 74.10

1.45%

GBP 104.73

-28.22%

 

 

French Base

Sep-24

EUR 61.57

EUR 62.93

-2.17%

-EUR 1.37

EUR 57.04

7.93%

EUR 140.51

-56.18%

 

 

Italian Base

Sep-24

EUR 111.92

EUR 115.02

-2.69%

-EUR 3.10

EUR 104.51

7.09%

EUR 151.19

-25.97%

 

 

JKM LNG

Sep-24

$12.37

$12.80

-3.31%

-$0.42

$12.07

2.48%

$15.59

-20.64%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/5/24

8/2/24

% Change

Change

7/8/24

% Change

8/4/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Sep-24

$35.83

$37.10

-3.44%

-$1.28

$33.29

7.61%

$48.60

-26.28%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Sep-24

$87.70

$90.89

-3.52%

-$3.19

$79.90

9.75%

$124.04

-29.30%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Sep-24

$84.87

$87.18

-2.64%

-$2.31

$81.19

4.54%

$143.76

-40.96%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Sep-24

$75.18

$77.25

-2.69%

-$2.08

$74.10

1.45%

$104.73

-28.22%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Sep-24

$61.57

$62.93

-2.17%

-$1.37

$57.04

7.93%

$140.51

-56.18%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Sep-24

$111.92

$115.02

-2.69%

-$3.10

$104.51

7.09%

$151.19

-25.97%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Sep-24

$12.37

$12.80

-3.31%

-$0.42

$12.07

2.48%

$15.59

-20.64%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

08/03/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

66

21

33

442

174

95

65.00%

27.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

78

19

27

553

141

120

34.00%

28.00%

 

 

E N Central

77

20

21

511

44

86

9.00%

20.00%

 

 

W N Central

91

20

9

621

18

-21

3.00%

-3.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

108

11

11

1,320

174

109

15.00%

9.00%

 

 

E S Central

107

12

6

1,119

178

158

19.00%

16.00%

 

 

W S Central

135

9

-18

1,640

182

-49

12.00%

-3.00%

 

 

Mountain

87

9

-3

823

75

90

10.00%

12.00%

 

 

Pacific

55

8

-6

461

97

104

27.00%

29.00%

 

 

United States

89

15

9

847

119

80

16.00%

10.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

08/03/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

1

-2

-5

3

-9

-5

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

-3

-2

2

-5

0

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

0

-4

-2

10

-1

4

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

0

-3

0

8

-8

-7

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

E S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

0

-2

0

4

-16

0

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

1

-2

1

4

-21

2

NA

NA

 

 

United States

0

-2

-1

4

-6

0

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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