Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Aug-12-2024

Aug 12, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 7:51 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.237

$2.143

4.39%

$0.094

29,718

 

 

WTI

$77.71

$76.84

1.13%

$0.87

53,142

 

 

Brent

$80.38

$79.66

0.90%

$0.72

7,149

 

 

ULSD

$2.367

$2.340

1.15%

$0.027

4,611

 

 

RBOB

$2.419

$2.390

1.21%

$0.029

4,503

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.00

$4.05

-1.23%

-$0.05

Oct-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$19.44

$19.11

1.75%

$0.34

Sep-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$40.53

$40.68

-0.35%

-$0.14

Sep-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

08/09/24

588

2

-66

08/12/23

 

 

Canada

08/09/24

217

-2

27

08/12/23

 

 

International

July

934

-23

-27

July

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 8/6/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

86,249

85,779

85,680

99

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

78,498

78,352

77,487

865

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

346,754

331,897

334,835

-2,938

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

297,680

256,009

250,793

5,216

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

143,329

135,332

134,720

612

 

 

NYM Ethanol

36,991

36,006

36,662

-656

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

153,438

152,441

153,201

-760

 

 

RBOB

373,885

353,439

354,386

-947

 

 

HSC Basis

813,380

806,759

806,708

51

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$84.00

$86.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.40

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

12.00

12.90

13.20

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.30

$3.30

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

40.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

08/02/19

 

 

 

8/2/24

7/26/24

Net Change

% Change

8/4/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

719

711

8

1.13%

700

2.71%

649

10.82%

 

 

Midwest

854

842

12

1.43%

793

7.69%

751

13.75%

 

 

Mountain

257

253

4

1.58%

196

31.12%

179

43.42%

 

 

Pacific

289

286

3

1.05%

233

24.03%

262

10.14%

 

 

South

1,152

1,157

-5

-0.43%

1,108

3.97%

1,024

12.48%

 

 

    Salt

300

307

-7

-2.28%

284

5.63%

256

17.00%

 

 

    Non_Salt

851

851

0

0.00%

824

3.28%

768

10.84%

 

 

Total

3,270

3,249

21

0.65%

3,030

7.92%

2,866

14.11%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/9/24

8/8/24

% Change

Change

7/12/24

% Change

8/10/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Sep-24

$45.26

$45.26

0.00%

$0.00

$54.60

-17.10%

$45.97

-1.54%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Sep-24

$59.11

$61.22

-3.43%

-$2.10

$78.68

-24.87%

$53.76

9.96%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Sep-24

$47.50

$46.45

2.26%

$1.05

$58.91

-19.37%

$98.20

-51.63%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Sep-24

$40.80

$41.41

-1.45%

-$0.60

$53.34

-23.49%

$52.60

-22.43%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Sep-24

$40.56

$39.67

2.23%

$0.89

$46.53

-12.83%

$43.31

-6.36%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Sep-24

$74.73

$70.94

5.35%

$3.79

$101.80

-26.59%

$127.30

-41.29%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Sep-24

$38.33

$38.33

0.01%

$0.00

$42.93

-10.73%

$43.42

-11.72%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/9/24

8/8/24

% Change

Change

7/12/24

% Change

8/10/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Sep-24

$2.143

$2.127

0.75%

$0.02

$2.33

-8.07%

$3.41

-37.19%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Sep-24

-$0.304

-$0.248

22.63%

-$0.06

-$0.45

-32.65%

-$0.27

13.52%

 

 

Chicago

Sep-24

-$0.361

-$0.302

-16.45%

-$0.06

-$0.52

-30.36%

-$0.25

45.24%

 

 

Waha

Sep-24

-$2.227

-$2.171

-2.55%

-$0.06

-$1.59

39.85%

-$0.48

364.71%

 

 

Algonquin

Sep-24

-$0.384

-$0.342

-12.34%

-$0.04

-$0.47

-17.48%

-$0.72

-46.48%

 

 

Aeco

Sep-24

-$1.481

-$1.483

-0.16%

$0.00

-$1.64

-9.57%

-$1.17

26.26%

 

 

Socal

Sep-24

-$0.049

-$0.011

357.41%

-$0.04

-$0.04

25.06%

$1.66

-102.97%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/9/24

8/8/24

% Change

Change

7/12/24

% Change

8/10/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Sep-24

$0.765

$0.777

-1.58%

-$0.01

$0.82

-7.11%

$0.74

4.04%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Sep-24

$0.765

$0.780

-1.88%

-$0.01

$0.82

-7.25%

$0.73

4.59%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Sep-24

$0.180

$0.160

12.40%

$0.02

$0.18

-2.25%

$0.26

-31.09%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Sep-24

$1.494

$1.500

-0.41%

-$0.01

$1.58

-5.46%

$1.51

-1.20%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Sep-24

$0.861

$0.890

-3.22%

-$0.03

$0.94

-8.27%

$0.84

3.10%

 

 

Far East Propane

Sep-24

$6.292

$6.290

0.03%

$0.00

$6.39

-1.54%

$5.60

12.35%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Sep-24

$5.883

$5.930

-0.79%

-$0.05

$5.90

-0.28%

$5.17

13.83%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/9/24

8/8/24

% Change

Change

7/12/24

% Change

8/10/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Sep-24

$76.84

$76.19

0.85%

$0.65

$81.02

-5.16%

$77.07

-0.30%

 

 

Brent

Sep-24

$80.00

$79.48

0.65%

$0.52

$85.03

-5.91%

$81.56

-1.91%

 

 

WCS

Sep-24

-$13.94

-$13.44

3.62%

-$0.51

-$15.45

-9.74%

-$13.33

4.59%

 

 

LLS

Sep-24

$77.34

$76.89

0.57%

$0.44

$82.20

-5.92%

$91.01

-15.02%

 

 

Mars

Sep-24

$74.35

$74.04

0.42%

$0.31

$80.03

-7.10%

$76.32

-2.59%

 

 

Sour

Sep-24

$76.33

$75.98

0.47%

$0.36

$80.93

-5.68%

$77.09

-0.98%

 

 

ESPO

Sep-24

$78.00

$77.48

0.67%

$0.52

$83.03

-6.05%

$79.56

-1.96%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/9/24

8/8/24

% Change

Change

7/12/24

% Change

8/10/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Sep-24

$2.34

$2.36

-0.72%

-$0.02

$2.53

-7.47%

$2.67

-12.36%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Sep-24

$2.39

$2.40

-0.29%

-$0.01

$2.50

-4.44%

$2.45

-2.69%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Sep-24

$2.29

$2.30

-0.30%

-$0.01

$2.40

-4.63%

$2.36

-2.80%

 

 

GC Jet

Sep-24

$2.22

$2.26

-2.08%

-$0.05

$2.46

-10.06%

$2.16

2.45%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Sep-24

$1.77

$1.76

1.02%

$0.02

$1.84

-3.74%

$1.84

-3.43%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Sep-24

$683.16

$683.01

0.02%

$0.15

$736.00

-7.18%

$745.45

-8.36%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Sep-24

$93.44

$92.70

0.79%

$0.73

$100.20

-6.75%

$104.19

-10.32%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/9/24

8/8/24

% Change

Change

7/12/24

% Change

8/10/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Sep-24

58.38%

63.66%

-8.29%

-5.28%

51.89%

12.51%

47.71%

22.36%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Sep-24

68.85%

74.31%

-7.35%

-5.46%

64.20%

7.24%

55.85%

23.28%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Sep-24

2068.98%

2124.11%

-2.60%

-55.13%

205.67%

905.97%

55.17%

3650.19%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Sep-24

72.31%

76.37%

-5.32%

-4.06%

62.34%

15.99%

48.87%

47.96%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Sep-24

67.22%

65.83%

2.11%

1.39%

63.58%

5.73%

45.37%

48.16%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Sep-24

331.32%

338.05%

-1.99%

-6.73%

161.87%

104.68%

80.09%

313.68%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Sep-24

188.72%

153.64%

22.83%

35.08%

293.92%

-35.79%

101.77%

85.44%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/9/24

8/8/24

% Change

Change

7/12/24

% Change

8/10/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Sep-24

EUR 40.06

EUR 40.30

-0.59%

-EUR 0.24

EUR 32.61

22.83%

EUR 50.60

-20.84%

 

 

NBP

Sep-24

GBP 97.94

GBP 98.59

-0.66%

-GBP 0.65

GBP 77.61

26.20%

GBP 129.83

-24.56%

 

 

German Base

Sep-24

EUR 91.03

EUR 90.77

0.28%

EUR 0.25

EUR 78.99

15.24%

EUR 147.04

-38.09%

 

 

UK Base

Sep-24

GBP 81.58

GBP 79.95

2.05%

GBP 1.64

GBP 70.54

15.65%

GBP 109.39

-25.42%

 

 

French Base

Sep-24

EUR 62.71

EUR 61.28

2.34%

EUR 1.43

EUR 57.53

9.01%

EUR 140.04

-55.22%

 

 

Italian Base

Sep-24

EUR 122.79

EUR 124.51

-1.39%

-EUR 1.73

EUR 103.39

18.75%

EUR 153.30

-19.90%

 

 

JKM LNG

Sep-24

$13.02

$12.90

0.95%

$0.12

$11.90

9.42%

$16.42

-20.68%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/9/24

8/8/24

% Change

Change

7/12/24

% Change

8/10/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Sep-24

$40.06

$40.30

-0.59%

-$0.24

$32.61

22.83%

$50.60

-20.84%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Sep-24

$97.94

$98.59

-0.66%

-$0.65

$77.61

26.20%

$129.83

-24.56%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Sep-24

$91.03

$90.77

0.28%

$0.25

$78.99

15.24%

$147.04

-38.09%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Sep-24

$81.58

$79.95

2.05%

$1.64

$70.54

15.65%

$109.39

-25.42%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Sep-24

$62.71

$61.28

2.34%

$1.43

$57.53

9.01%

$140.04

-55.22%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Sep-24

$122.79

$124.51

-1.39%

-$1.73

$103.39

18.75%

$153.30

-19.90%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Sep-24

$13.02

$12.90

0.95%

$0.12

$11.90

9.42%

$16.42

-20.68%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

08/10/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

41

-1

5

483

173

98

56.00%

25.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

61

5

10

614

146

129

31.00%

27.00%

 

 

E N Central

46

-7

3

557

36

90

7.00%

19.00%

 

 

W N Central

45

-21

-13

666

-3

-32

0.00%

-5.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

105

10

7

1,425

184

115

15.00%

9.00%

 

 

E S Central

101

9

8

1,220

187

165

18.00%

16.00%

 

 

W S Central

132

8

-24

1,771

190

-73

12.00%

-4.00%

 

 

Mountain

89

17

14

912

92

105

11.00%

13.00%

 

 

Pacific

75

29

25

536

125

130

30.00%

32.00%

 

 

United States

79

7

5

926

126

86

16.00%

10.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

08/10/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

2

-2

0

5

-11

-5

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

-3

0

2

-8

-1

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

5

1

4

16

1

9

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

13

10

11

21

2

5

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

E S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

2

0

1

6

-16

1

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

0

-3

0

4

-24

2

NA

NA

 

 

United States

2

0

2

6

-6

2

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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