Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Aug-15-2023

Aug 15, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:22 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.708

$2.795

-3.11%

-$0.087

31,698

 

 

WTI

$81.61

$82.51

-1.09%

-$0.90

110,717

 

 

Brent

$85.49

$86.21

-0.84%

-$0.72

8,926

 

 

ULSD

$3.070

$3.088

-0.61%

-$0.019

4,976

 

 

RBOB

$2.920

$2.906

0.47%

$0.014

9,087

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.39

$4.29

2.33%

$0.10

Oct-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$36.12

$35.50

1.74%

$0.62

Sep-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$37.03

$34.76

6.53%

$2.27

Sep-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

08/11/23

654

-5

-109

08/12/22

 

 

Canada

08/11/23

190

2

-11

08/12/22

 

 

International

July

961

-6

128

July

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 8/8/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

104,802

104,387

104,383

4

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

92,924

92,658

92,299

359

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

421,096

396,075

408,606

-12,531

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

273,074

212,678

204,722

7,956

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

124,887

116,143

118,947

-2,804

 

 

NYM Ethanol

32,731

32,362

32,351

11

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

152,391

151,675

152,098

-423

 

 

RBOB

367,358

341,334

353,769

-12,435

 

 

HSC Basis

582,145

576,472

570,212

6,260

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

08/10/18

 

 

 

8/4/23

7/28/23

Net Change

% Change

8/5/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

700

680

20

2.94%

564

24.11%

631

10.86%

 

 

Midwest

793

775

18

2.32%

663

19.61%

718

10.38%

 

 

Mountain

196

191

5

2.62%

148

32.43%

171

14.75%

 

 

Pacific

233

230

3

1.30%

252

-7.54%

264

-11.68%

 

 

South

1,108

1,124

-16

-1.42%

874

26.77%

962

15.13%

 

 

    Salt

284

297

-13

-4.38%

193

47.15%

236

20.24%

 

 

    Non_Salt

824

828

-4

-0.48%

681

21.00%

726

13.47%

 

 

Total

3,030

3,001

29

0.97%

2,501

21.15%

2,747

10.31%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/14/23

8/11/23

% Change

Change

7/17/23

% Change

8/15/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Sep-23

$42.80

$40.74

5.07%

$2.06

$40.51

5.66%

$68.75

-37.75%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Sep-23

$105.17

$95.39

10.26%

$9.78

$68.49

53.57%

$70.16

49.91%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Sep-23

$93.20

$98.63

-5.50%

-$5.43

$94.93

-1.81%

$110.94

-15.99%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Sep-23

$46.98

$45.58

3.09%

$1.41

$45.80

2.58%

$71.84

-34.59%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Sep-23

$35.26

$33.86

4.15%

$1.40

$35.93

-1.85%

$64.09

-44.98%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Sep-23

$130.45

$142.67

-8.56%

-$12.22

$161.01

-18.98%

$127.21

2.55%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Sep-23

$36.32

$34.93

3.98%

$1.39

$35.64

1.90%

$56.49

-35.70%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/14/23

8/11/23

% Change

Change

7/17/23

% Change

8/15/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Sep-23

$2.795

$2.770

0.90%

$0.03

$2.50

11.62%

$5.31

-47.39%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Sep-23

-$0.216

-$0.244

-11.28%

$0.03

-$0.21

1.79%

-$0.18

22.61%

 

 

Chicago

Sep-23

-$0.231

-$0.242

4.68%

$0.01

-$0.33

-29.45%

-$0.28

-18.19%

 

 

Waha

Sep-23

-$0.369

-$0.452

-18.24%

$0.08

-$0.64

-42.15%

-$1.94

-80.96%

 

 

Algonquin

Sep-23

-$1.082

-$0.994

-8.81%

-$0.09

-$0.79

37.24%

-$1.16

-6.71%

 

 

Aeco

Sep-23

-$0.619

-$0.582

6.43%

-$0.04

-$0.76

-18.20%

-$1.66

-62.66%

 

 

Socal

Sep-23

$2.330

$2.428

-4.01%

-$0.10

$1.16

101.23%

$0.74

213.14%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/14/23

8/11/23

% Change

Change

7/17/23

% Change

8/15/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Sep-23

$0.685

$0.723

-5.18%

-$0.04

$0.65

5.91%

$0.93

-26.56%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Sep-23

$0.685

$0.715

-4.18%

-$0.03

$0.65

5.73%

$0.88

-21.70%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Sep-23

$0.260

$0.273

-4.70%

-$0.01

$0.26

1.62%

$0.39

-33.43%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Sep-23

$1.563

$1.595

-2.02%

-$0.03

$1.38

13.32%

$1.64

-4.53%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Sep-23

$0.832

$0.870

-4.35%

-$0.04

$0.76

9.75%

$1.07

-22.20%

 

 

Conway Propane

Sep-23

$0.685

$0.714

-4.00%

-$0.03

$0.64

7.21%

$0.91

-24.84%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Sep-23

$1.628

$1.658

-1.81%

-$0.03

$1.45

12.37%

$1.61

0.96%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/14/23

8/11/23

% Change

Change

7/17/23

% Change

8/15/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Oct-23

$81.92

$82.57

-0.79%

-$0.65

$73.89

10.87%

$82.05

-0.16%

 

 

Brent

Oct-23

$86.21

$86.81

-0.70%

-$0.60

$78.38

9.99%

$87.32

-1.27%

 

 

WCS

Oct-23

-$16.35

-$16.45

-0.61%

$0.10

-$14.90

9.73%

-$16.75

-2.39%

 

 

LLS

Oct-23

$83.27

$83.85

-0.70%

-$0.58

$75.83

9.80%

$83.25

0.03%

 

 

Mars

Oct-23

$81.48

$82.15

-0.81%

-$0.66

$73.89

10.28%

$79.28

2.77%

 

 

Sour

Oct-23

$82.39

$82.94

-0.67%

-$0.55

$74.24

10.98%

$79.87

3.15%

 

 

ESPO

Oct-23

$84.21

$84.81

-0.71%

-$0.60

$76.38

10.25%

$81.97

2.73%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/14/23

8/11/23

% Change

Change

7/17/23

% Change

8/15/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Sep-23

$3.08

$3.12

-1.25%

-$0.04

$2.56

20.41%

$2.95

4.27%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Sep-23

$2.69

$2.95

-8.78%

-$0.26

$2.52

6.66%

$2.49

7.94%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Sep-23

$2.59

$2.85

-9.09%

-$0.26

$2.42

6.93%

$2.39

8.27%

 

 

GC Jet

Sep-23

$2.95

$3.15

-6.48%

-$0.20

$2.39

23.32%

$2.72

8.11%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Sep-23

$2.12

$2.12

-0.14%

$0.00

$2.31

-8.35%

$2.08

1.68%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Sep-23

$850.41

$863.09

-1.47%

-$12.68

$700.55

21.39%

$819.91

3.72%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Sep-23

$113.90

$116.84

-2.52%

-$2.94

$95.92

18.74%

$106.82

6.62%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/14/23

8/11/23

% Change

Change

7/17/23

% Change

8/15/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Sep-23

61.25%

57.76%

6.04%

3.49%

65.95%

-7.13%

57.16%

7.16%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Sep-23

84.10%

81.58%

3.09%

2.52%

93.61%

-10.16%

71.56%

17.52%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Sep-23

89.94%

84.38%

6.59%

5.56%

90.39%

-0.50%

147.18%

-38.89%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Sep-23

70.59%

67.48%

4.61%

3.11%

73.15%

-3.50%

58.38%

20.91%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Sep-23

55.10%

52.58%

4.79%

2.52%

52.70%

4.55%

53.34%

3.30%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Sep-23

409.21%

378.06%

8.24%

31.15%

122.86%

233.07%

74.46%

449.57%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Sep-23

301.79%

301.66%

0.04%

0.13%

210.03%

43.69%

102.01%

195.84%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/14/23

8/11/23

% Change

Change

7/17/23

% Change

8/15/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Sep-23

EUR 35.40

EUR 35.93

-1.49%

-EUR 0.53

EUR 27.50

28.74%

EUR 196.16

-81.96%

 

 

NBP

Sep-23

GBP 89.72

GBP 91.09

-1.50%

-GBP 1.37

GBP 67.18

33.56%

GBP 459.97

-80.49%

 

 

German Base

Sep-23

EUR 94.79

EUR 98.08

-3.36%

-EUR 3.29

EUR 88.75

6.80%

EUR 439.54

-78.43%

 

 

UK Base

Sep-23

GBP 87.18

GBP 88.48

-1.47%

-GBP 1.30

GBP 78.01

11.76%

GBP 379.79

-77.04%

 

 

French Base

Sep-23

EUR 80.42

EUR 84.17

-4.46%

-EUR 3.75

EUR 88.34

-8.96%

EUR 419.30

-80.82%

 

 

Italian Base

Sep-23

EUR 120.72

EUR 121.64

-0.75%

-EUR 0.91

EUR 105.39

14.55%

EUR 427.88

-71.79%

 

 

JKM LNG

Sep-23

$10.88

$10.98

-0.93%

-$0.10

$10.45

4.07%

$60.27

-81.96%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

08/12/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

36

-5

-46

390

69

-103

21.00%

-21.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

53

-1

-37

493

10

-126

2.00%

-20.00%

 

 

E N Central

43

-9

-14

475

-60

-155

-11.00%

-24.00%

 

 

W N Central

56

-9

-11

708

21

-100

3.00%

-12.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

101

7

-5

1,325

59

-147

5.00%

-10.00%

 

 

E S Central

93

2

-4

1,069

11

-194

1.00%

-15.00%

 

 

W S Central

157

34

23

1,868

253

-155

16.00%

-8.00%

 

 

Mountain

72

1

-5

817

-23

-120

-3.00%

-13.00%

 

 

Pacific

49

3

-18

413

-11

-117

-3.00%

-22.00%

 

 

United States

74

3

-12

852

32

-137

4.00%

-14.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

08/12/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

2

-2

1

10

-7

3

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

-3

0

3

-8

2

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E N Central

1

-4

-2

7

-9

-1

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W N Central

1

-2

0

16

-4

11

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Mountain

1

-2

1

5

-18

4

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

-3

0

3

-26

-6

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

United States

0

-2

0

4

-9

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

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