Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Aug-16-2023

Aug 16, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:22 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.612

$2.659

-1.77%

-$0.047

35,116

 

 

WTI

$80.99

$80.99

0.00%

$0.00

89,554

 

 

Brent

$84.96

$84.89

0.08%

$0.07

8,743

 

 

ULSD

$3.045

$3.028

0.55%

$0.017

4,772

 

 

RBOB

$2.857

$2.848

0.32%

$0.009

9,578

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.41

$4.39

0.46%

$0.02

Oct-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$35.35

$34.78

1.66%

$0.58

Sep-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$36.05

$37.11

-2.86%

-$1.06

Sep-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

08/11/23

654

-5

-109

08/12/22

 

 

Canada

08/11/23

190

2

-11

08/12/22

 

 

International

July

961

-6

128

July

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 8/8/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

104,802

104,387

104,383

4

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

92,924

92,658

92,299

359

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

421,096

396,075

408,606

-12,531

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

273,074

212,678

204,722

7,956

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

124,887

116,143

118,947

-2,804

 

 

NYM Ethanol

32,731

32,362

32,351

11

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

152,391

151,675

152,098

-423

 

 

RBOB

367,358

341,334

353,769

-12,435

 

 

HSC Basis

582,145

576,472

570,212

6,260

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

08/10/18

 

 

 

8/4/23

7/28/23

Net Change

% Change

8/5/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

700

680

20

2.94%

564

24.11%

631

10.86%

 

 

Midwest

793

775

18

2.32%

663

19.61%

718

10.38%

 

 

Mountain

196

191

5

2.62%

148

32.43%

171

14.75%

 

 

Pacific

233

230

3

1.30%

252

-7.54%

264

-11.68%

 

 

South

1,108

1,124

-16

-1.42%

874

26.77%

962

15.13%

 

 

    Salt

284

297

-13

-4.38%

193

47.15%

236

20.24%

 

 

    Non_Salt

824

828

-4

-0.48%

681

21.00%

726

13.47%

 

 

Total

3,030

3,001

29

0.97%

2,501

21.15%

2,747

10.31%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/15/23

8/14/23

% Change

Change

7/18/23

% Change

8/16/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Sep-23

$41.63

$42.80

-2.72%

-$1.16

$41.55

0.19%

$71.66

-41.90%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Sep-23

$84.65

$105.56

-19.81%

-$20.91

$68.96

22.76%

$69.32

22.12%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Sep-23

$88.58

$93.23

-4.99%

-$4.65

$92.60

-4.35%

$118.00

-24.93%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Sep-23

$45.73

$46.99

-2.68%

-$1.26

$47.99

-4.71%

$74.73

-38.81%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Sep-23

$33.64

$35.19

-4.40%

-$1.55

$39.34

-14.47%

$62.03

-45.76%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Sep-23

$124.04

$130.53

-4.98%

-$6.49

$160.53

-22.73%

$126.84

-2.21%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Sep-23

$35.11

$36.26

-3.17%

-$1.15

$39.00

-9.95%

$55.59

-36.83%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/15/23

8/14/23

% Change

Change

7/18/23

% Change

8/16/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Sep-23

$2.659

$2.795

-4.87%

-$0.14

$2.62

1.57%

$5.53

-51.94%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Sep-23

-$0.232

-$0.216

7.21%

-$0.02

-$0.22

7.86%

-$0.18

27.40%

 

 

Chicago

Sep-23

-$0.248

-$0.231

-6.98%

-$0.02

-$0.33

-23.72%

-$0.29

-15.10%

 

 

Waha

Sep-23

-$0.395

-$0.369

-6.85%

-$0.03

-$0.65

-39.57%

-$2.01

-80.36%

 

 

Algonquin

Sep-23

-$1.030

-$1.082

4.79%

$0.05

-$0.81

27.85%

-$1.17

-12.05%

 

 

Aeco

Sep-23

-$0.609

-$0.619

-1.69%

$0.01

-$0.71

-14.30%

-$1.73

-64.74%

 

 

Socal

Sep-23

$2.107

$2.330

-9.57%

-$0.22

$1.27

66.32%

$0.75

179.59%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/15/23

8/14/23

% Change

Change

7/18/23

% Change

8/16/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Sep-23

$0.695

$0.685

1.40%

$0.01

$0.66

5.04%

$0.92

-24.64%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Sep-23

$0.648

$0.685

-5.41%

-$0.04

$0.65

-0.19%

$0.92

-29.90%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Sep-23

$0.259

$0.260

-0.48%

$0.00

$0.26

0.96%

$0.42

-38.63%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Sep-23

$1.520

$1.563

-2.75%

-$0.04

$1.41

7.56%

$1.61

-5.79%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Sep-23

$0.834

$0.832

0.16%

$0.00

$0.76

9.36%

$1.04

-20.18%

 

 

Conway Propane

Sep-23

$0.645

$0.685

-5.87%

-$0.04

$0.65

-0.48%

$0.93

-30.99%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Sep-23

$1.669

$1.628

2.53%

$0.04

$1.43

16.75%

$1.62

2.93%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/15/23

8/14/23

% Change

Change

7/18/23

% Change

8/16/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Oct-23

$80.50

$81.92

-1.76%

-$1.42

$75.42

6.74%

$80.51

-0.01%

 

 

Brent

Oct-23

$84.89

$86.21

-1.55%

-$1.32

$79.50

6.78%

$85.84

-1.11%

 

 

WCS

Oct-23

-$17.58

-$16.35

7.00%

-$1.23

-$13.63

29.03%

-$17.00

3.42%

 

 

LLS

Oct-23

$81.77

$83.27

-1.83%

-$1.50

$77.38

5.67%

$80.71

1.31%

 

 

Mars

Oct-23

$80.05

$81.48

-1.79%

-$1.43

$75.14

6.53%

$76.86

4.15%

 

 

Sour

Oct-23

$80.98

$82.39

-1.74%

-$1.41

$75.51

7.24%

$77.39

4.64%

 

 

ESPO

Oct-23

$82.89

$84.21

-1.59%

-$1.32

$77.50

6.95%

$82.00

1.09%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/15/23

8/14/23

% Change

Change

7/18/23

% Change

8/16/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Sep-23

$3.04

$3.08

-1.36%

-$0.04

$2.60

17.07%

$2.93

3.58%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Sep-23

$2.85

$2.69

5.87%

$0.16

$2.50

14.05%

$2.44

16.52%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Sep-23

$2.75

$2.59

6.10%

$0.16

$2.40

14.64%

$2.35

17.23%

 

 

GC Jet

Sep-23

$2.91

$2.95

-1.12%

-$0.03

$2.42

20.42%

$2.75

5.93%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Sep-23

$2.09

$2.12

-1.46%

-$0.03

$2.34

-10.77%

$2.06

1.31%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Sep-23

$834.46

$850.41

-1.88%

-$15.95

$702.24

18.83%

$823.10

1.38%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Sep-23

$114.01

$113.90

0.09%

$0.11

$96.36

18.31%

$107.67

5.88%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/15/23

8/14/23

% Change

Change

7/18/23

% Change

8/16/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Sep-23

61.04%

61.25%

-0.34%

-0.21%

60.30%

1.23%

54.32%

12.37%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Sep-23

83.17%

84.10%

-1.11%

-0.93%

82.82%

0.42%

67.99%

22.33%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Sep-23

81.43%

89.94%

-9.46%

-8.51%

95.22%

-14.48%

141.99%

-42.65%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Sep-23

66.72%

70.59%

-5.48%

-3.87%

69.91%

-4.56%

55.34%

20.56%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Sep-23

48.98%

55.10%

-11.11%

-6.12%

51.16%

-4.26%

53.36%

-8.21%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Sep-23

319.81%

409.21%

-21.85%

-89.40%

126.79%

152.24%

72.22%

342.83%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Sep-23

200.17%

301.79%

-33.67%

-101.62%

211.40%

-5.31%

99.94%

100.29%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/15/23

8/14/23

% Change

Change

7/18/23

% Change

8/16/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Sep-23

EUR 39.78

EUR 35.40

12.39%

EUR 4.38

EUR 29.43

35.15%

EUR 193.04

-79.39%

 

 

NBP

Sep-23

GBP 99.48

GBP 89.72

10.88%

GBP 9.76

GBP 72.85

36.55%

GBP 463.40

-78.53%

 

 

German Base

Sep-23

EUR 100.56

EUR 94.79

6.09%

EUR 5.77

EUR 88.25

13.95%

EUR 466.24

-78.43%

 

 

UK Base

Sep-23

GBP 97.82

GBP 87.18

12.20%

GBP 10.64

GBP 84.38

15.93%

GBP 395.37

-75.26%

 

 

French Base

Sep-23

EUR 91.06

EUR 80.42

13.22%

EUR 10.63

EUR 87.08

4.56%

EUR 431.77

-78.91%

 

 

Italian Base

Sep-23

EUR 120.64

EUR 120.72

-0.07%

-EUR 0.08

EUR 115.23

4.69%

EUR 419.88

-71.27%

 

 

JKM LNG

Sep-23

$12.76

$10.88

17.36%

$1.89

$11.59

10.11%

$60.30

-78.83%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

08/12/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

36

-5

-46

390

69

-103

21.00%

-21.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

53

-1

-37

493

10

-126

2.00%

-20.00%

 

 

E N Central

43

-9

-14

475

-60

-155

-11.00%

-24.00%

 

 

W N Central

56

-9

-11

708

21

-100

3.00%

-12.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

101

7

-5

1,325

59

-147

5.00%

-10.00%

 

 

E S Central

93

2

-4

1,069

11

-194

1.00%

-15.00%

 

 

W S Central

157

34

23

1,868

253

-155

16.00%

-8.00%

 

 

Mountain

72

1

-5

817

-23

-120

-3.00%

-13.00%

 

 

Pacific

49

3

-18

413

-11

-117

-3.00%

-22.00%

 

 

United States

74

3

-12

852

32

-137

4.00%

-14.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

08/12/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

2

-2

1

10

-7

3

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

-3

0

3

-8

2

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E N Central

1

-4

-2

7

-9

-1

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W N Central

1

-2

0

16

-4

11

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Mountain

1

-2

1

5

-18

4

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

-3

0

3

-26

-6

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

United States

0

-2

0

4

-9

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

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