Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Aug-17-2023

Aug 17, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 9:23 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.655

$2.592

2.43%

$0.063

41,073

 

 

WTI

$80.70

$79.38

1.66%

$1.32

114,083

 

 

Brent

$84.62

$83.45

1.40%

$1.17

18,031

 

 

ULSD

$3.089

$3.021

2.24%

$0.068

9,389

 

 

RBOB

$2.872

$2.867

0.16%

$0.005

16,898

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.30

$4.43

-2.93%

-$0.13

Oct-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$36.50

$36.34

0.46%

$0.17

Sep-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$34.57

$36.09

-4.20%

-$1.52

Sep-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

08/11/23

654

-5

-109

08/12/22

 

 

Canada

08/11/23

190

2

-11

08/12/22

 

 

International

July

961

-6

128

July

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 8/8/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

104,802

104,387

104,383

4

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

92,924

92,658

92,299

359

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

421,096

396,075

408,606

-12,531

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

273,074

212,678

204,722

7,956

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

124,887

116,143

118,947

-2,804

 

 

NYM Ethanol

32,731

32,362

32,351

11

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

152,391

151,675

152,098

-423

 

 

RBOB

367,358

341,334

353,769

-12,435

 

 

HSC Basis

582,145

576,472

570,212

6,260

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

08/10/18

 

 

 

8/4/23

7/28/23

Net Change

% Change

8/5/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

700

680

20

2.94%

564

24.11%

631

10.86%

 

 

Midwest

793

775

18

2.32%

663

19.61%

718

10.38%

 

 

Mountain

196

191

5

2.62%

148

32.43%

171

14.75%

 

 

Pacific

233

230

3

1.30%

252

-7.54%

264

-11.68%

 

 

South

1,108

1,124

-16

-1.42%

874

26.77%

962

15.13%

 

 

    Salt

284

297

-13

-4.38%

193

47.15%

236

20.24%

 

 

    Non_Salt

824

828

-4

-0.48%

681

21.00%

726

13.47%

 

 

Total

3,030

3,001

29

0.97%

2,501

21.15%

2,747

10.31%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/16/23

8/15/23

% Change

Change

7/19/23

% Change

8/17/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Sep-23

$40.25

$41.63

-3.32%

-$1.38

$40.50

-0.62%

$73.43

-45.19%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Sep-23

$85.77

$84.65

1.32%

$1.12

$69.41

23.56%

$75.12

14.17%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Sep-23

$90.33

$88.58

1.97%

$1.75

$93.47

-3.36%

$111.36

-18.88%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Sep-23

$44.24

$45.73

-3.26%

-$1.49

$46.65

-5.18%

$76.43

-42.12%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Sep-23

$33.09

$33.64

-1.65%

-$0.55

$36.22

-8.63%

$63.15

-47.60%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Sep-23

$129.65

$124.04

4.52%

$5.61

$159.50

-18.71%

$126.78

2.26%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Sep-23

$34.55

$35.11

-1.61%

-$0.57

$35.94

-3.86%

$59.73

-42.16%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/16/23

8/15/23

% Change

Change

7/19/23

% Change

8/17/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Sep-23

$2.592

$2.659

-2.52%

-$0.07

$2.59

0.27%

$5.51

-52.95%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Sep-23

-$0.226

-$0.232

-2.50%

$0.01

-$0.23

-3.74%

-$0.18

26.86%

 

 

Chicago

Sep-23

-$0.239

-$0.248

3.59%

$0.01

-$0.31

-22.17%

-$0.29

-16.85%

 

 

Waha

Sep-23

-$0.406

-$0.395

-2.91%

-$0.01

-$0.64

-37.02%

-$2.02

-79.87%

 

 

Algonquin

Sep-23

-$1.027

-$1.030

0.34%

$0.00

-$0.78

31.21%

-$1.16

-11.33%

 

 

Aeco

Sep-23

-$0.572

-$0.609

-6.16%

$0.04

-$0.67

-14.94%

-$1.79

-68.16%

 

 

Socal

Sep-23

$1.811

$2.107

-14.05%

-$0.30

$1.21

49.38%

$0.73

147.80%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/16/23

8/15/23

% Change

Change

7/19/23

% Change

8/17/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Sep-23

$0.655

$0.695

-5.70%

-$0.04

$0.68

-3.24%

$0.92

-29.14%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Sep-23

$0.638

$0.648

-1.64%

-$0.01

$0.68

-5.86%

$0.93

-31.40%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Sep-23

$0.259

$0.259

0.00%

$0.00

$0.25

4.55%

$0.40

-35.29%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Sep-23

$1.513

$1.520

-0.48%

-$0.01

$1.44

5.36%

$1.59

-4.62%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Sep-23

$0.793

$0.834

-4.90%

-$0.04

$0.79

0.66%

$1.04

-23.68%

 

 

Conway Propane

Sep-23

$0.652

$0.645

1.07%

$0.01

$0.67

-2.51%

$0.92

-29.07%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Sep-23

$1.598

$1.669

-4.25%

-$0.07

$1.46

9.75%

$1.59

0.34%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/16/23

8/15/23

% Change

Change

7/19/23

% Change

8/17/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Oct-23

$79.02

$80.50

-1.87%

-$1.48

$75.11

5.21%

$81.40

-2.92%

 

 

Brent

Oct-23

$83.45

$84.89

-1.73%

-$1.44

$79.35

5.17%

$86.55

-3.58%

 

 

WCS

Oct-23

-$17.55

-$17.58

-0.18%

$0.03

-$14.81

18.46%

-$16.29

7.75%

 

 

LLS

Oct-23

$80.71

$81.77

-1.31%

-$1.06

$76.86

5.01%

$82.41

-2.07%

 

 

Mars

Oct-23

$78.69

$80.05

-1.73%

-$1.36

$74.80

5.21%

$78.26

0.55%

 

 

Sour

Oct-23

$79.80

$80.98

-1.47%

-$1.17

$75.57

5.60%

$78.83

1.23%

 

 

ESPO

Oct-23

$81.45

$82.89

-1.77%

-$1.44

$77.35

5.30%

$81.30

0.18%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/16/23

8/15/23

% Change

Change

7/19/23

% Change

8/17/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Sep-23

$3.02

$3.04

-0.46%

-$0.01

$2.63

14.89%

$3.00

0.80%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Sep-23

$2.64

$2.85

-7.27%

-$0.21

$2.51

5.43%

$2.51

5.09%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Sep-23

$2.54

$2.75

-7.53%

-$0.21

$2.41

5.65%

$2.41

5.30%

 

 

GC Jet

Sep-23

$2.89

$2.91

-0.76%

-$0.02

$2.45

17.81%

$2.89

0.10%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Sep-23

$2.07

$2.09

-1.01%

-$0.02

$2.32

-10.95%

$2.03

1.77%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Sep-23

$833.48

$834.46

-0.12%

-$0.98

$724.48

15.05%

$846.16

-1.50%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Sep-23

$113.18

$114.01

-0.72%

-$0.82

$100.89

12.18%

$108.02

4.78%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/16/23

8/15/23

% Change

Change

7/19/23

% Change

8/17/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Sep-23

63.86%

61.04%

4.62%

2.82%

61.98%

3.03%

58.68%

8.83%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Sep-23

85.72%

83.17%

3.07%

2.55%

80.20%

6.88%

71.17%

20.44%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Sep-23

94.81%

81.43%

16.43%

13.38%

87.50%

8.35%

152.75%

-37.93%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Sep-23

72.19%

66.72%

8.20%

5.47%

71.47%

1.01%

59.87%

20.58%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Sep-23

51.59%

48.98%

5.33%

2.61%

48.20%

7.03%

52.56%

-1.85%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Sep-23

271.27%

319.81%

-15.18%

-48.54%

175.89%

54.23%

74.30%

265.10%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Sep-23

213.66%

200.17%

6.74%

13.49%

204.52%

4.47%

101.76%

109.96%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/16/23

8/15/23

% Change

Change

7/19/23

% Change

8/17/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Sep-23

EUR 37.31

EUR 39.78

-6.22%

-EUR 2.47

EUR 27.83

34.07%

EUR 204.29

-81.74%

 

 

NBP

Sep-23

GBP 93.66

GBP 99.48

-5.85%

-GBP 5.82

GBP 70.62

32.63%

GBP 472.75

-80.19%

 

 

German Base

Sep-23

EUR 98.53

EUR 100.56

-2.02%

-EUR 2.04

EUR 91.23

8.00%

EUR 463.94

-78.76%

 

 

UK Base

Sep-23

GBP 89.38

GBP 97.82

-8.63%

-GBP 8.44

GBP 62.50

43.00%

GBP 400.33

-77.67%

 

 

French Base

Sep-23

EUR 99.86

EUR 91.06

9.67%

EUR 8.81

EUR 86.41

15.57%

EUR 441.47

-77.38%

 

 

Italian Base

Sep-23

EUR 122.26

EUR 120.64

1.34%

EUR 1.62

EUR 105.55

15.83%

EUR 447.07

-72.65%

 

 

JKM LNG

Sep-23

$10.87

$12.76

-14.86%

-$1.90

$10.42

4.29%

$57.10

-80.97%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

08/12/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

36

-5

-46

390

69

-103

21.00%

-21.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

53

-1

-37

493

10

-126

2.00%

-20.00%

 

 

E N Central

43

-9

-14

475

-60

-155

-11.00%

-24.00%

 

 

W N Central

56

-9

-11

708

21

-100

3.00%

-12.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

101

7

-5

1,325

59

-147

5.00%

-10.00%

 

 

E S Central

93

2

-4

1,069

11

-194

1.00%

-15.00%

 

 

W S Central

157

34

23

1,868

253

-155

16.00%

-8.00%

 

 

Mountain

72

1

-5

817

-23

-120

-3.00%

-13.00%

 

 

Pacific

49

3

-18

413

-11

-117

-3.00%

-22.00%

 

 

United States

74

3

-12

852

32

-137

4.00%

-14.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

08/12/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

2

-2

1

10

-7

3

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

-3

0

3

-8

2

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E N Central

1

-4

-2

7

-9

-1

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W N Central

1

-2

0

16

-4

11

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Mountain

1

-2

1

5

-18

4

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

-3

0

3

-26

-6

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

United States

0

-2

0

4

-9

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

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