Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Aug-19-2024

Aug 19, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:08 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.171

$2.123

2.26%

$0.048

31,168

 

 

WTI

$76.27

$76.65

-0.50%

-$0.38

11,451

 

 

Brent

$79.21

$79.68

-0.59%

-$0.47

8,481

 

 

ULSD

$2.310

$2.329

-0.82%

-$0.019

4,038

 

 

RBOB

$2.302

$2.310

-0.36%

-$0.008

4,251

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.07

$4.14

-1.69%

-$0.07

Oct-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$17.15

$17.23

-0.44%

-$0.08

Sep-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$38.60

$38.97

-0.94%

-$0.36

Sep-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

08/16/24

586

-2

-56

08/19/23

 

 

Canada

08/16/24

217

0

28

08/19/23

 

 

International

July

934

-23

-27

July

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 8/13/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

87,404

86,921

86,825

96

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

79,749

79,597

78,775

822

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

351,781

336,924

339,862

-2,938

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

147,407

122,874

122,046

828

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

149,137

141,939

140,477

1,462

 

 

NYM Ethanol

38,243

37,441

37,896

-455

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

156,426

155,429

155,897

-468

 

 

RBOB

381,668

361,150

361,233

-83

 

 

HSC Basis

829,757

822,854

824,322

-1,468

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$84.00

$86.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.40

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

12.00

12.90

13.20

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.30

$3.30

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

40.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

08/09/19

 

 

 

8/9/24

8/2/24

Net Change

% Change

8/11/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

723

719

4

0.56%

717

0.84%

667

8.46%

 

 

Midwest

869

854

15

1.76%

812

7.02%

779

11.55%

 

 

Mountain

260

257

3

1.17%

202

28.71%

183

42.23%

 

 

Pacific

287

289

-2

-0.69%

240

19.58%

263

9.21%

 

 

South

1,125

1,152

-27

-2.34%

1,093

2.93%

1,018

10.49%

 

 

    Salt

286

300

-14

-4.67%

272

5.15%

247

15.79%

 

 

    Non_Salt

839

851

-12

-1.41%

821

2.19%

771

8.76%

 

 

Total

3,264

3,270

-6

-0.18%

3,065

6.49%

2,910

12.18%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/16/24

8/15/24

% Change

Change

7/19/24

% Change

8/17/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Sep-24

$43.22

$43.51

-0.66%

-$0.29

$49.07

-11.92%

$46.29

-6.64%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Sep-24

$59.71

$59.00

1.21%

$0.71

$66.07

-9.63%

$52.43

13.89%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Sep-24

$44.00

$44.73

-1.62%

-$0.73

$58.88

-25.27%

$88.17

-50.10%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Sep-24

$39.71

$39.33

0.95%

$0.37

$48.46

-18.07%

$52.23

-23.97%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Sep-24

$39.68

$39.73

-0.11%

-$0.04

$42.94

-7.58%

$43.70

-9.19%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Sep-24

$66.50

$64.41

3.25%

$2.09

$89.73

-25.89%

$124.69

-46.67%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Sep-24

$37.58

$37.29

0.79%

$0.29

$39.16

-4.04%

$42.89

-12.38%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/16/24

8/15/24

% Change

Change

7/19/24

% Change

8/17/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Sep-24

$2.123

$2.197

-3.37%

-$0.07

$2.16

-1.94%

$3.41

-37.74%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Sep-24

-$0.365

-$0.297

23.03%

-$0.07

-$0.47

-22.34%

-$0.30

22.29%

 

 

Chicago

Sep-24

-$0.427

-$0.357

-16.37%

-$0.07

-$0.43

-0.81%

-$0.25

72.46%

 

 

Waha

Sep-24

-$2.556

-$2.658

-3.87%

$0.10

-$1.28

100.26%

-$0.49

422.70%

 

 

Algonquin

Sep-24

-$0.477

-$0.379

-25.89%

-$0.10

-$0.44

8.17%

-$0.72

-34.12%

 

 

Aeco

Sep-24

-$1.483

-$1.535

-3.39%

$0.05

-$1.37

8.36%

-$1.26

17.76%

 

 

Socal

Sep-24

-$0.265

-$0.237

11.50%

-$0.03

$0.14

-295.93%

$1.57

-116.90%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/16/24

8/15/24

% Change

Change

7/19/24

% Change

8/17/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Sep-24

$0.771

$0.779

-0.96%

-$0.01

$0.79

-2.68%

$0.70

10.46%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Sep-24

$0.762

$0.780

-2.36%

-$0.02

$0.80

-4.65%

$0.70

9.10%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Sep-24

$0.166

$0.173

-4.06%

-$0.01

$0.18

-7.46%

$0.27

-38.96%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Sep-24

$1.500

$1.530

-1.93%

-$0.03

$1.51

-0.90%

$1.45

3.67%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Sep-24

$0.942

$0.937

0.57%

$0.01

$0.93

1.41%

$0.79

19.26%

 

 

Far East Propane

Sep-24

$6.370

$6.401

-0.49%

-$0.03

$6.26

1.68%

$5.36

18.86%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Sep-24

$5.950

$5.950

0.00%

$0.00

$5.78

2.93%

$4.94

20.49%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/16/24

8/15/24

% Change

Change

7/19/24

% Change

8/17/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Oct-24

$75.54

$76.99

-1.92%

-$1.45

$77.48

-2.50%

$75.26

0.37%

 

 

Brent

Oct-24

$79.68

$81.04

-1.71%

-$1.36

$81.56

-2.31%

$79.67

0.01%

 

 

WCS

Oct-24

-$13.55

-$13.22

2.44%

-$0.33

-$16.00

-15.31%

-$14.07

-3.69%

 

 

LLS

Oct-24

$76.51

$77.83

-1.73%

-$1.32

$80.25

-4.66%

$77.39

-1.14%

 

 

Mars

Oct-24

$73.64

$74.58

-1.28%

-$0.95

$77.83

-5.39%

$73.79

-0.22%

 

 

Sour

Oct-24

$75.44

$76.77

-1.77%

-$1.33

$77.56

-2.74%

$75.24

0.26%

 

 

ESPO

Oct-24

$77.68

$79.04

-1.75%

-$1.36

$79.56

-2.36%

$77.67

0.01%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/16/24

8/15/24

% Change

Change

7/19/24

% Change

8/17/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Sep-24

$2.33

$2.38

-2.06%

-$0.05

$2.44

-4.63%

$2.64

-11.78%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Sep-24

$2.31

$2.36

-1.87%

-$0.04

$2.42

-4.42%

$2.39

-3.43%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Sep-24

$2.21

$2.26

-1.95%

-$0.04

$2.32

-4.61%

$2.29

-3.57%

 

 

GC Jet

Sep-24

$2.25

$2.28

-1.32%

-$0.03

$2.38

-5.62%

$2.57

-12.39%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Sep-24

$1.81

$1.80

0.72%

$0.01

$1.76

3.01%

$1.80

0.67%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Sep-24

$678.42

$696.87

-2.65%

-$18.45

$720.49

-5.84%

$724.89

-6.41%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Sep-24

$92.27

$93.77

-1.60%

-$1.50

$97.53

-5.39%

$99.63

-7.39%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/16/24

8/15/24

% Change

Change

7/19/24

% Change

8/17/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Oct-24

65.59%

64.00%

2.48%

1.59%

66.68%

-1.63%

45.34%

44.66%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Oct-24

93.00%

83.66%

11.16%

9.34%

85.80%

8.39%

52.86%

75.94%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Oct-24

1283.96%

1317.85%

-2.57%

-33.89%

184.01%

597.77%

55.68%

2205.96%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Oct-24

84.38%

74.93%

12.61%

9.45%

75.24%

12.15%

46.37%

81.97%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Oct-24

48.26%

48.93%

-1.37%

-0.67%

49.37%

-2.25%

44.06%

9.53%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Oct-24

160.85%

155.89%

3.18%

4.96%

108.91%

47.69%

33.33%

382.60%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Oct-24

164.56%

156.65%

5.05%

7.91%

164.09%

0.29%

59.68%

175.74%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/16/24

8/15/24

% Change

Change

7/19/24

% Change

8/17/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Oct-24

EUR 40.40

EUR 40.61

-0.52%

-EUR 0.21

EUR 33.89

19.22%

EUR 54.22

-25.50%

 

 

NBP

Oct-24

GBP 99.56

GBP 100.31

-0.75%

-GBP 0.75

GBP 81.86

21.63%

GBP 145.44

-31.54%

 

 

German Base

Oct-24

EUR 94.44

EUR 94.18

0.27%

EUR 0.26

EUR 77.91

21.22%

EUR 148.50

-36.40%

 

 

UK Base

Oct-24

GBP 83.25

GBP 83.47

-0.27%

-GBP 0.22

GBP 69.72

19.41%

GBP 128.95

-35.44%

 

 

French Base

Oct-24

EUR 78.07

EUR 78.17

-0.14%

-EUR 0.11

EUR 61.48

26.99%

EUR 191.59

-59.25%

 

 

Italian Base

Oct-24

EUR 126.26

EUR 126.49

-0.17%

-EUR 0.22

EUR 104.75

20.54%

EUR 155.75

-18.93%

 

 

JKM LNG

Oct-24

$12.72

$12.88

-1.22%

-$0.16

$12.07

5.33%

$18.23

-30.23%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/16/24

8/15/24

% Change

Change

7/19/24

% Change

8/17/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Oct-24

$40.40

$40.61

-0.52%

-$0.21

$33.89

19.22%

$54.22

-25.50%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Oct-24

$99.56

$100.31

-0.75%

-$0.75

$81.86

21.63%

$145.44

-31.54%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Oct-24

$94.44

$94.18

0.27%

$0.26

$77.91

21.22%

$148.50

-36.40%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Oct-24

$83.25

$83.47

-0.27%

-$0.22

$69.72

19.41%

$128.95

-35.44%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Oct-24

$78.07

$78.17

-0.14%

-$0.11

$61.48

26.99%

$191.59

-59.25%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Oct-24

$126.26

$126.49

-0.17%

-$0.22

$104.75

20.54%

$155.75

-18.93%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Oct-24

$12.72

$12.88

-1.22%

-$0.16

$12.07

5.33%

$18.23

-30.23%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

08/17/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

27

-9

-6

511

165

91

48.00%

22.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

40

-10

-15

655

137

115

26.00%

22.00%

 

 

E N Central

36

-11

2

593

25

97

4.00%

20.00%

 

 

W N Central

51

-10

4

717

-13

-22

-2.00%

-3.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

91

0

-16

1,516

184

100

14.00%

7.00%

 

 

E S Central

89

1

-1

1,309

188

168

17.00%

15.00%

 

 

W S Central

141

19

-5

1,913

210

-75

12.00%

-4.00%

 

 

Mountain

75

5

-2

987

97

101

11.00%

11.00%

 

 

Pacific

54

10

-16

590

135

111

30.00%

23.00%

 

 

United States

68

0

-8

994

125

79

14.00%

9.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

08/17/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

2

-3

1

7

-14

-4

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

2

-1

2

4

-10

2

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

4

-1

0

20

0

8

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

5

0

0

26

2

5

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

E S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

0

-5

-1

6

-21

0

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

2

-2

2

6

-27

4

NA

NA

 

 

United States

2

-1

1

7

-8

2

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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