Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Aug-21-2023

Aug 21, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:58 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.630

$2.551

3.10%

$0.079

34,692

 

 

WTI

$81.88

$81.25

0.78%

$0.63

13,152

 

 

Brent

$85.31

$84.80

0.60%

$0.51

7,841

 

 

ULSD

$3.149

$3.160

-0.35%

-$0.011

7,403

 

 

RBOB

$2.795

$2.823

-1.01%

-$0.028

7,494

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.14

$4.14

0.00%

$0.00

Oct-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$34.88

$35.93

-2.92%

-$1.05

Sep-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$33.51

$35.64

-5.98%

-$2.13

Sep-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

08/18/23

642

-12

-120

08/19/22

 

 

Canada

08/18/23

189

-1

-12

08/19/22

 

 

International

July

961

-6

128

July

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 8/15/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

104,865

104,438

104,444

-6

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

92,925

92,662

92,298

364

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

425,165

400,368

412,275

-11,907

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

137,084

108,825

104,559

4,266

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

132,216

123,503

125,591

-2,088

 

 

NYM Ethanol

34,594

34,334

34,199

135

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

152,387

151,655

151,861

-206

 

 

RBOB

378,534

352,617

362,962

-10,345

 

 

HSC Basis

596,975

590,423

586,112

4,311

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

08/17/18

 

 

 

8/11/23

8/4/23

Net Change

% Change

8/12/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

717

700

17

2.43%

571

25.57%

651

10.14%

 

 

Midwest

812

793

19

2.40%

684

18.71%

749

8.38%

 

 

Mountain

202

196

6

3.06%

151

33.77%

174

16.23%

 

 

Pacific

240

233

7

3.00%

248

-3.23%

263

-8.75%

 

 

South

1,093

1,108

-15

-1.35%

866

26.21%

958

14.04%

 

 

    Salt

272

284

-12

-4.23%

185

47.03%

228

19.40%

 

 

    Non_Salt

821

824

-3

-0.36%

681

20.56%

731

12.34%

 

 

Total

3,065

3,030

35

1.16%

2,519

21.68%

2,795

9.64%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/18/23

8/17/23

% Change

Change

7/21/23

% Change

8/19/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Sep-23

$39.14

$41.10

-4.77%

-$1.96

$42.00

-6.81%

$73.49

-46.74%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Sep-23

$92.93

$84.34

10.19%

$8.60

$62.00

49.91%

$73.84

25.87%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Sep-23

$84.57

$86.92

-2.70%

-$2.35

$94.25

-10.27%

$108.84

-22.29%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Sep-23

$43.65

$45.37

-3.79%

-$1.72

$48.57

-10.13%

$76.27

-42.77%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Sep-23

$33.02

$33.88

-2.54%

-$0.86

$36.69

-10.02%

$61.24

-46.08%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Sep-23

$124.43

$124.65

-0.17%

-$0.22

$163.49

-23.89%

$123.65

0.63%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Sep-23

$33.97

$34.58

-1.77%

-$0.61

$36.77

-7.62%

$57.83

-41.27%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/18/23

8/17/23

% Change

Change

7/21/23

% Change

8/19/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Sep-23

$2.551

$2.621

-2.67%

-$0.07

$2.71

-5.76%

$5.55

-54.04%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Sep-23

-$0.228

-$0.228

-0.04%

$0.00

-$0.22

2.33%

-$0.19

20.91%

 

 

Chicago

Sep-23

-$0.248

-$0.235

-5.36%

-$0.01

-$0.30

-16.06%

-$0.31

-20.60%

 

 

Waha

Sep-23

-$0.457

-$0.443

-3.16%

-$0.01

-$0.52

-11.58%

-$2.11

-78.39%

 

 

Algonquin

Sep-23

-$1.153

-$1.058

-9.03%

-$0.10

-$0.82

41.33%

-$1.16

-0.23%

 

 

Aeco

Sep-23

-$0.575

-$0.577

-0.36%

$0.00

-$0.68

-15.86%

-$1.93

-70.25%

 

 

Socal

Sep-23

$1.543

$1.671

-7.64%

-$0.13

$1.55

-0.71%

$0.70

119.52%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/18/23

8/17/23

% Change

Change

7/21/23

% Change

8/19/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Sep-23

$0.655

$0.642

1.98%

$0.01

$0.68

-3.68%

$0.93

-29.40%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Sep-23

$0.640

$0.635

0.79%

$0.01

$0.67

-4.75%

$0.92

-30.63%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Sep-23

$0.266

$0.267

-0.43%

$0.00

$0.24

9.71%

$0.40

-33.80%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Sep-23

$1.530

$1.542

-0.82%

-$0.01

$1.42

7.49%

$1.65

-7.09%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Sep-23

$0.796

$0.791

0.62%

$0.00

$0.79

0.95%

$1.07

-25.83%

 

 

Conway Propane

Sep-23

$0.640

$0.639

0.20%

$0.00

$0.69

-7.07%

$0.91

-29.52%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Sep-23

$1.586

$1.604

-1.17%

-$0.02

$1.47

7.53%

$1.64

-3.60%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/18/23

8/17/23

% Change

Change

7/21/23

% Change

8/19/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Oct-23

$80.66

$79.90

0.94%

$0.76

$76.78

5.05%

$82.82

-2.61%

 

 

Brent

Oct-23

$84.80

$84.12

0.80%

$0.68

$80.88

4.85%

$88.15

-3.80%

 

 

WCS

Oct-23

-$16.33

-$16.53

-1.23%

$0.20

-$15.55

4.99%

-$16.95

-3.68%

 

 

LLS

Oct-23

$82.38

$81.43

1.16%

$0.95

$78.78

4.56%

$85.73

-3.91%

 

 

Mars

Oct-23

$80.40

$79.31

1.36%

$1.10

$76.21

5.50%

$81.49

-1.33%

 

 

Sour

Oct-23

$79.98

$80.22

-0.30%

-$0.24

$76.54

4.50%

$82.32

-2.84%

 

 

ESPO

Oct-23

$82.80

$82.12

0.82%

$0.68

$78.88

4.97%

$82.69

0.14%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/18/23

8/17/23

% Change

Change

7/21/23

% Change

8/19/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Sep-23

$3.16

$3.09

2.40%

$0.07

$2.74

15.50%

$3.07

3.03%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Sep-23

$2.81

$2.82

-0.11%

$0.00

$2.37

18.93%

$2.54

10.70%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Sep-23

$2.71

$2.72

-0.11%

$0.00

$2.27

19.77%

$2.44

11.14%

 

 

GC Jet

Sep-23

$3.09

$2.98

3.70%

$0.11

$2.66

16.19%

$2.84

8.66%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Sep-23

$2.06

$2.04

1.13%

$0.02

$2.35

-12.24%

$2.06

0.05%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Sep-23

$864.68

$852.59

1.42%

$12.09

$740.01

16.85%

$853.16

1.35%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Sep-23

$115.16

$113.57

1.40%

$1.59

$101.96

12.94%

$111.52

3.26%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/18/23

8/17/23

% Change

Change

7/21/23

% Change

8/19/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Oct-23

75.05%

73.25%

2.46%

1.80%

67.99%

10.38%

57.02%

31.62%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Oct-23

99.68%

86.67%

15.01%

13.01%

82.74%

20.47%

68.30%

45.94%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Oct-23

96.65%

99.84%

-3.20%

-3.19%

95.25%

1.47%

129.97%

-25.64%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Oct-23

79.11%

78.65%

0.58%

0.46%

74.67%

5.95%

57.50%

37.58%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Oct-23

45.25%

48.61%

-6.91%

-3.36%

49.98%

-9.46%

50.08%

-9.64%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Oct-23

137.00%

191.34%

-28.40%

-54.34%

89.52%

53.04%

52.81%

159.42%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Oct-23

336.08%

421.26%

-20.22%

-85.18%

157.97%

112.75%

70.07%

379.63%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/18/23

8/17/23

% Change

Change

7/21/23

% Change

8/19/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Oct-23

EUR 43.24

EUR 43.05

0.43%

EUR 0.19

EUR 34.58

25.05%

EUR 229.06

-81.12%

 

 

NBP

Oct-23

GBP 107.07

GBP 104.64

2.33%

GBP 2.43

GBP 86.66

23.56%

GBP 541.64

-80.23%

 

 

German Base

Oct-23

EUR 106.53

EUR 106.93

-0.37%

-EUR 0.40

EUR 98.23

8.45%

EUR 595.78

-82.12%

 

 

UK Base

Oct-23

GBP 97.29

GBP 98.99

-1.73%

-GBP 1.71

GBP 84.61

14.98%

GBP 407.01

-76.10%

 

 

French Base

Oct-23

EUR 116.96

EUR 117.69

-0.62%

-EUR 0.73

EUR 104.35

12.09%

EUR 779.05

-84.99%

 

 

Italian Base

Oct-23

EUR 130.40

EUR 130.26

0.11%

EUR 0.14

EUR 118.65

9.90%

EUR 515.60

-74.71%

 

 

JKM LNG

Oct-23

$12.81

$13.09

-2.16%

-$0.28

$11.48

11.57%

$61.22

-79.08%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

08/19/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

31

-2

4

420

65

-99

18.00%

-19.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

49

2

12

542

11

-114

2.00%

-17.00%

 

 

E N Central

23

-22

-5

498

-82

-159

-14.00%

-24.00%

 

 

W N Central

41

-18

-9

749

2

-109

0.00%

-13.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

101

12

27

1,427

72

-120

5.00%

-8.00%

 

 

E S Central

82

-4

10

1,151

7

-184

1.00%

-14.00%

 

 

W S Central

143

22

19

2,010

274

-136

16.00%

-6.00%

 

 

Mountain

78

8

9

895

-15

-111

-2.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Pacific

72

28

-3

485

18

-120

4.00%

-20.00%

 

 

United States

71

4

8

923

36

-129

4.00%

-12.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

08/19/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

3

-2

-1

13

-9

3

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

1

-3

-2

4

-11

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E N Central

8

3

1

16

-6

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W N Central

5

-1

3

22

-4

14

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Mountain

1

-5

1

6

-23

5

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

-5

0

3

-31

-5

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

United States

2

-1

0

6

-10

1

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

To opt out of this email please follow this link.

Campbell Faulkner | OTC Global Holdings

Quality Data – Reliable Service – Affordable Price

5151 San Felipe Suite 2200
Houston, TX 77056
faulkner.c@otcgh.com
eoxlive.com/market-data

 

This email, any information contained herein and any files transmitted with it (collectively, the Material) are the sole property of OTC Global Holdings LP and its affiliates (OTCGH); are confidential, may be legally privileged and are intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. Unauthorized disclosure, copying or distribution of the Material, is strictly prohibited and the recipient shall not redistribute the Material in any form to a third party. Please notify the sender immediately by email if you have received this email by mistake, delete this email from your system and destroy any hard copies. OTCGH waives no privilege or confidentiality due to any mistaken transmission of this email.