Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Aug-23-2023

Aug 23, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:22 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.554

$2.560

-0.23%

-$0.006

18,647

 

 

WTI

$78.10

$80.35

-2.80%

-$2.25

113,660

 

 

Brent

$82.50

$84.03

-1.82%

-$1.53

7,576

 

 

ULSD

$3.121

$3.139

-0.56%

-$0.018

3,415

 

 

RBOB

$2.737

$2.789

-1.87%

-$0.052

3,122

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.37

$4.39

-0.46%

-$0.02

Oct-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$36.02

$35.96

0.14%

$0.05

Oct-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$34.19

$34.25

-0.17%

-$0.06

Sep-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

08/18/23

642

-12

-120

08/19/22

 

 

Canada

08/18/23

189

-1

-12

08/19/22

 

 

International

July

961

-6

128

July

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 8/15/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

104,865

104,438

104,444

-6

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

92,925

92,662

92,298

364

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

425,165

400,368

412,275

-11,907

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

137,084

108,825

104,559

4,266

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

132,216

123,503

125,591

-2,088

 

 

NYM Ethanol

34,594

34,334

34,199

135

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

152,387

151,655

151,861

-206

 

 

RBOB

378,534

352,617

362,962

-10,345

 

 

HSC Basis

596,975

590,423

586,112

4,311

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

08/17/18

 

 

 

8/11/23

8/4/23

Net Change

% Change

8/12/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

717

700

17

2.43%

571

25.57%

651

10.14%

 

 

Midwest

812

793

19

2.40%

684

18.71%

749

8.38%

 

 

Mountain

202

196

6

3.06%

151

33.77%

174

16.23%

 

 

Pacific

240

233

7

3.00%

248

-3.23%

263

-8.75%

 

 

South

1,093

1,108

-15

-1.35%

866

26.21%

958

14.04%

 

 

    Salt

272

284

-12

-4.23%

185

47.03%

228

19.40%

 

 

    Non_Salt

821

824

-3

-0.36%

681

20.56%

731

12.34%

 

 

Total

3,065

3,030

35

1.16%

2,519

21.68%

2,795

9.64%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/22/23

8/21/23

% Change

Change

7/25/23

% Change

8/23/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Sep-23

$39.66

$39.73

-0.17%

-$0.07

$41.44

-4.30%

$75.24

-47.29%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Sep-23

$112.74

$110.62

1.92%

$2.12

$58.10

94.04%

$75.90

48.54%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Sep-23

$82.33

$89.98

-8.49%

-$7.64

$100.47

-18.05%

$110.59

-25.55%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Sep-23

$44.05

$44.12

-0.16%

-$0.07

$47.83

-7.91%

$78.04

-43.56%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Sep-23

$31.57

$32.63

-3.26%

-$1.06

$34.48

-8.45%

$60.29

-47.64%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Sep-23

$113.57

$119.26

-4.77%

-$5.69

$172.11

-34.01%

$125.93

-9.81%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Sep-23

$32.67

$33.22

-1.66%

-$0.55

$36.00

-9.25%

$60.32

-45.84%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/22/23

8/21/23

% Change

Change

7/25/23

% Change

8/23/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Sep-23

$2.560

$2.632

-2.74%

-$0.07

$2.75

-6.81%

$5.61

-54.33%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Sep-23

-$0.218

-$0.240

-9.13%

$0.02

-$0.24

-9.32%

-$0.18

18.81%

 

 

Chicago

Sep-23

-$0.251

-$0.262

4.31%

$0.01

-$0.31

-19.28%

-$0.31

-19.25%

 

 

Waha

Sep-23

-$0.564

-$0.529

-6.75%

-$0.04

-$0.51

10.54%

-$2.05

-72.54%

 

 

Algonquin

Sep-23

-$1.201

-$1.183

-1.53%

-$0.02

-$0.88

36.51%

-$1.19

1.30%

 

 

Aeco

Sep-23

-$0.581

-$0.586

-0.77%

$0.00

-$0.69

-15.70%

-$2.06

-71.84%

 

 

Socal

Sep-23

$1.503

$1.628

-7.67%

-$0.12

$1.57

-4.46%

$0.69

117.51%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/22/23

8/21/23

% Change

Change

7/25/23

% Change

8/23/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Sep-23

$0.660

$0.656

0.57%

$0.00

$0.68

-2.91%

$0.95

-30.56%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Sep-23

$0.650

$0.649

0.19%

$0.00

$0.67

-3.31%

$0.93

-30.14%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Sep-23

$0.272

$0.270

0.93%

$0.00

$0.24

13.93%

$0.42

-35.71%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Sep-23

$1.547

$1.588

-2.58%

-$0.04

$1.49

4.12%

$1.67

-7.46%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Sep-23

$0.801

$0.797

0.55%

$0.00

$0.78

3.19%

$1.12

-28.69%

 

 

Conway Propane

Sep-23

$0.650

$0.650

0.00%

$0.00

$0.66

-1.58%

$0.95

-31.53%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Sep-23

$1.603

$1.644

-2.48%

-$0.04

$1.54

4.23%

$1.66

-3.69%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/22/23

8/21/23

% Change

Change

7/25/23

% Change

8/23/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Oct-23

$79.64

$80.12

-0.60%

-$0.48

$79.20

0.56%

$84.50

-5.75%

 

 

Brent

Oct-23

$84.03

$84.46

-0.51%

-$0.43

$83.25

0.94%

$89.92

-6.55%

 

 

WCS

Oct-23

-$19.49

-$16.58

14.89%

-$2.90

-$17.16

13.55%

-$17.19

13.32%

 

 

LLS

Oct-23

$81.29

$81.68

-0.47%

-$0.39

$80.64

0.81%

$88.81

-8.46%

 

 

Mars

Oct-23

$79.55

$80.11

-0.70%

-$0.56

$78.32

1.57%

$84.34

-5.67%

 

 

Sour

Oct-23

$80.23

$81.31

-1.35%

-$1.09

$78.79

1.82%

$85.28

-5.93%

 

 

ESPO

Oct-23

$82.03

$82.46

-0.52%

-$0.43

$81.25

0.96%

$84.30

-2.69%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/22/23

8/21/23

% Change

Change

7/25/23

% Change

8/23/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Sep-23

$3.14

$3.12

0.70%

$0.02

$2.77

13.34%

$3.25

-3.32%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Sep-23

$2.79

$2.78

0.32%

$0.01

$2.80

-0.39%

$2.61

6.82%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Sep-23

$2.69

$2.68

0.34%

$0.01

$2.70

-0.41%

$2.51

7.09%

 

 

GC Jet

Sep-23

$3.05

$3.06

-0.26%

-$0.01

$2.55

19.30%

$2.55

19.54%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Sep-23

$2.09

$2.08

0.82%

$0.02

$2.33

-10.28%

$2.15

-2.74%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Sep-23

$863.98

$864.44

-0.05%

-$0.46

$755.27

14.39%

$799.86

8.02%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Sep-23

$117.51

$117.56

-0.04%

-$0.05

$103.38

13.67%

$114.64

2.50%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/22/23

8/21/23

% Change

Change

7/25/23

% Change

8/23/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Oct-23

75.75%

70.84%

6.93%

4.91%

57.93%

30.76%

64.27%

17.86%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Oct-23

96.04%

98.72%

-2.71%

-2.68%

70.07%

37.06%

75.22%

27.68%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Oct-23

103.77%

97.26%

6.69%

6.51%

82.21%

26.23%

143.58%

-27.73%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Oct-23

82.33%

78.60%

4.75%

3.73%

63.38%

29.90%

65.49%

25.71%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Oct-23

47.29%

47.37%

-0.17%

-0.08%

50.24%

-5.87%

49.17%

-3.82%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Oct-23

169.35%

159.01%

6.50%

10.34%

92.47%

83.14%

53.10%

218.93%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Oct-23

343.75%

339.41%

1.28%

4.34%

167.73%

104.94%

70.63%

386.69%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/22/23

8/21/23

% Change

Change

7/25/23

% Change

8/23/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Oct-23

EUR 47.78

EUR 45.52

4.98%

EUR 2.27

EUR 39.43

21.18%

EUR 229.38

-79.17%

 

 

NBP

Oct-23

GBP 119.14

GBP 113.83

4.67%

GBP 5.32

GBP 98.14

21.40%

GBP 575.01

-79.28%

 

 

German Base

Oct-23

EUR 121.53

EUR 110.49

9.99%

EUR 11.04

EUR 102.70

18.33%

EUR 672.14

-81.92%

 

 

UK Base

Oct-23

GBP 109.55

GBP 103.04

6.32%

GBP 6.51

GBP 91.64

19.54%

GBP 481.14

-77.23%

 

 

French Base

Oct-23

EUR 126.47

EUR 115.65

9.36%

EUR 10.82

EUR 107.28

17.89%

EUR 770.95

-83.60%

 

 

Italian Base

Oct-23

EUR 142.37

EUR 134.05

6.20%

EUR 8.31

EUR 126.07

12.93%

EUR 518.51

-72.54%

 

 

JKM LNG

Oct-23

$13.27

$12.93

2.57%

$0.33

$11.76

12.85%

$65.40

-79.72%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

08/19/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

31

-2

4

420

65

-99

18.00%

-19.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

49

2

12

542

11

-114

2.00%

-17.00%

 

 

E N Central

23

-22

-5

498

-82

-159

-14.00%

-24.00%

 

 

W N Central

41

-18

-9

749

2

-109

0.00%

-13.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

101

12

27

1,427

72

-120

5.00%

-8.00%

 

 

E S Central

82

-4

10

1,151

7

-184

1.00%

-14.00%

 

 

W S Central

143

22

19

2,010

274

-136

16.00%

-6.00%

 

 

Mountain

78

8

9

895

-15

-111

-2.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Pacific

72

28

-3

485

18

-120

4.00%

-20.00%

 

 

United States

71

4

8

923

36

-129

4.00%

-12.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

08/19/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

3

-2

-1

13

-9

3

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

1

-3

-2

4

-11

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E N Central

8

3

1

16

-6

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W N Central

5

-1

3

22

-4

14

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Mountain

1

-5

1

6

-23

5

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

-5

0

3

-31

-5

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

United States

2

-1

0

6

-10

1

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

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