Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Aug-25-2023

Aug 25, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:23 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.500

$2.519

-0.75%

-$0.019

5,603

 

 

WTI

$79.90

$79.05

1.08%

$0.85

97,748

 

 

Brent

$84.26

$83.36

1.08%

$0.90

4,367

 

 

ULSD

$3.201

$3.156

1.43%

$0.045

2,328

 

 

RBOB

$2.775

$2.780

-0.19%

-$0.005

3,172

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.34

$4.31

0.70%

$0.03

Oct-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$36.50

$37.00

-1.34%

-$0.50

Oct-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$33.99

$34.02

-0.08%

-$0.03

Sep-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

08/18/23

642

-12

-120

08/19/22

 

 

Canada

08/18/23

189

-1

-12

08/19/22

 

 

International

July

961

-6

128

July

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 8/15/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

104,865

104,438

104,444

-6

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

92,925

92,662

92,298

364

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

425,165

400,368

412,275

-11,907

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

137,084

108,825

104,559

4,266

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

132,216

123,503

125,591

-2,088

 

 

NYM Ethanol

34,594

34,334

34,199

135

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

152,387

151,655

151,861

-206

 

 

RBOB

378,534

352,617

362,962

-10,345

 

 

HSC Basis

596,975

590,423

586,112

4,311

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

08/24/18

 

 

 

8/18/23

8/11/23

Net Change

% Change

8/19/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

731

717

14

1.95%

598

22.24%

675

8.36%

 

 

Midwest

831

812

19

2.34%

714

16.39%

777

6.89%

 

 

Mountain

206

202

4

1.98%

153

34.64%

177

16.38%

 

 

Pacific

242

240

2

0.83%

243

-0.41%

262

-7.70%

 

 

South

1,072

1,093

-21

-1.92%

871

23.08%

955

12.23%

 

 

    Salt

260

272

-12

-4.41%

184

41.30%

223

16.70%

 

 

    Non_Salt

813

821

-8

-0.97%

687

18.34%

733

10.97%

 

 

Total

3,083

3,065

18

0.59%

2,579

19.54%

2,846

8.31%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/24/23

8/23/23

% Change

Change

7/27/23

% Change

8/25/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Sep-23

$39.35

$39.41

-0.15%

-$0.06

$40.54

-2.93%

$76.21

-48.36%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Sep-23

$114.85

$110.04

4.38%

$4.82

$62.21

84.63%

$76.95

49.26%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Sep-23

$80.85

$80.04

1.01%

$0.81

$111.02

-27.18%

$112.32

-28.02%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Sep-23

$43.92

$43.15

1.79%

$0.77

$45.91

-4.34%

$79.04

-44.44%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Sep-23

$30.25

$31.22

-3.10%

-$0.97

$34.85

-13.20%

$61.88

-51.12%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Sep-23

$103.71

$107.14

-3.20%

-$3.43

$173.63

-40.27%

$126.46

-17.98%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Sep-23

$30.93

$32.32

-4.31%

-$1.39

$36.71

-15.75%

$61.14

-49.41%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/24/23

8/23/23

% Change

Change

7/27/23

% Change

8/25/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Sep-23

$2.519

$2.497

0.88%

$0.02

$2.60

-2.93%

$5.72

-55.95%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Sep-23

-$0.251

-$0.236

6.48%

-$0.02

-$0.25

-0.83%

-$0.21

18.14%

 

 

Chicago

Sep-23

-$0.263

-$0.253

-3.91%

-$0.01

-$0.31

-14.01%

-$0.31

-15.91%

 

 

Waha

Sep-23

-$0.706

-$0.717

-1.66%

$0.01

-$0.50

40.53%

-$2.02

-65.02%

 

 

Algonquin

Sep-23

-$1.256

-$1.206

-4.16%

-$0.05

-$0.86

46.11%

-$1.20

4.67%

 

 

Aeco

Sep-23

-$0.543

-$0.565

-4.01%

$0.02

-$0.69

-21.63%

-$1.91

-71.63%

 

 

Socal

Sep-23

$1.301

$1.387

-6.16%

-$0.09

$1.89

-31.09%

$0.70

84.61%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/24/23

8/23/23

% Change

Change

7/27/23

% Change

8/25/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Sep-23

$0.674

$0.659

2.30%

$0.02

$0.73

-7.50%

$0.95

-29.34%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Sep-23

$0.670

$0.650

3.09%

$0.02

$0.71

-5.49%

$0.96

-30.13%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Sep-23

$0.271

$0.272

-0.45%

$0.00

$0.24

11.38%

$0.41

-33.24%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Sep-23

$1.538

$1.523

0.98%

$0.01

$1.49

3.16%

$1.68

-8.26%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Sep-23

$0.809

$0.800

1.04%

$0.01

$0.83

-2.91%

$1.10

-26.65%

 

 

Conway Propane

Sep-23

$0.655

$0.650

0.77%

$0.01

$0.71

-7.38%

$0.96

-31.66%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Sep-23

$1.598

$1.577

1.35%

$0.02

$1.55

2.92%

$1.68

-4.70%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/24/23

8/23/23

% Change

Change

7/27/23

% Change

8/25/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Oct-23

$79.05

$78.89

0.20%

$0.16

$79.63

-0.73%

$83.04

-4.80%

 

 

Brent

Oct-23

$83.36

$83.21

0.18%

$0.15

$83.79

-0.51%

$88.38

-5.68%

 

 

WCS

Oct-23

-$18.58

-$19.42

-4.55%

$0.84

-$16.91

9.90%

-$16.78

10.73%

 

 

LLS

Oct-23

$80.81

$80.22

0.74%

$0.60

$80.96

-0.19%

$86.31

-6.36%

 

 

Mars

Oct-23

$78.08

$78.26

-0.23%

-$0.18

$78.75

-0.85%

$82.25

-5.07%

 

 

Sour

Oct-23

$78.13

$78.55

-0.54%

-$0.42

$79.23

-1.39%

$83.17

-6.06%

 

 

ESPO

Oct-23

$81.36

$81.21

0.18%

$0.15

$81.79

-0.53%

$83.72

-2.82%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/24/23

8/23/23

% Change

Change

7/27/23

% Change

8/25/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Sep-23

$3.15

$3.13

0.70%

$0.02

$2.90

8.73%

$3.13

0.86%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Sep-23

$2.78

$2.77

0.36%

$0.01

$2.88

-3.37%

$2.51

10.63%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Sep-23

$2.68

$2.67

0.37%

$0.01

$2.78

-3.49%

$2.41

11.07%

 

 

GC Jet

Sep-23

$3.01

$3.01

-0.17%

-$0.01

$2.72

10.63%

$2.91

3.26%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Sep-23

$2.14

$2.13

0.23%

$0.01

$2.22

-3.65%

$2.16

-0.88%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Sep-23

$866.85

$864.00

0.33%

$2.85

$790.65

9.64%

$912.86

-5.04%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Sep-23

$115.62

$114.36

1.10%

$1.26

$106.44

8.63%

$118.54

-2.46%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/24/23

8/23/23

% Change

Change

7/27/23

% Change

8/25/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Oct-23

78.46%

78.90%

-0.56%

-0.44%

64.38%

21.87%

54.70%

43.44%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Oct-23

98.47%

97.45%

1.05%

1.02%

74.99%

31.31%

65.60%

50.11%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Oct-23

111.18%

111.72%

-0.48%

-0.54%

86.50%

28.53%

127.06%

-12.50%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Oct-23

83.63%

85.07%

-1.69%

-1.44%

69.71%

19.97%

55.81%

49.85%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Oct-23

50.76%

50.00%

1.52%

0.76%

52.67%

-3.63%

49.77%

1.99%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Oct-23

196.20%

184.35%

6.43%

11.85%

101.07%

94.12%

53.67%

265.57%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Oct-23

341.61%

344.94%

-0.97%

-3.33%

177.73%

92.21%

71.76%

376.05%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/24/23

8/23/23

% Change

Change

7/27/23

% Change

8/25/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Oct-23

EUR 34.19

EUR 40.81

-16.22%

-EUR 6.62

EUR 34.49

-0.85%

EUR 270.22

-87.35%

 

 

NBP

Oct-23

GBP 84.06

GBP 101.52

-17.19%

-GBP 17.45

GBP 85.69

-1.90%

GBP 669.92

-87.45%

 

 

German Base

Oct-23

EUR 102.68

EUR 116.75

-12.05%

-EUR 14.07

EUR 95.19

7.87%

EUR 798.05

-87.13%

 

 

UK Base

Oct-23

GBP 82.58

GBP 96.86

-14.74%

-GBP 14.28

GBP 82.58

0.01%

GBP 572.71

-85.58%

 

 

French Base

Oct-23

EUR 109.72

EUR 122.56

-10.47%

-EUR 12.83

EUR 105.63

3.88%

EUR 940.65

-88.34%

 

 

Italian Base

Oct-23

EUR 123.01

EUR 134.73

-8.70%

-EUR 11.72

EUR 118.60

3.72%

EUR 608.29

-79.78%

 

 

JKM LNG

Oct-23

$11.86

$12.69

-6.56%

-$0.83

$11.11

6.68%

$69.88

-83.03%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

08/19/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

31

-2

4

420

65

-99

18.00%

-19.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

49

2

12

542

11

-114

2.00%

-17.00%

 

 

E N Central

23

-22

-5

498

-82

-159

-14.00%

-24.00%

 

 

W N Central

41

-18

-9

749

2

-109

0.00%

-13.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

101

12

27

1,427

72

-120

5.00%

-8.00%

 

 

E S Central

82

-4

10

1,151

7

-184

1.00%

-14.00%

 

 

W S Central

143

22

19

2,010

274

-136

16.00%

-6.00%

 

 

Mountain

78

8

9

895

-15

-111

-2.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Pacific

72

28

-3

485

18

-120

4.00%

-20.00%

 

 

United States

71

4

8

923

36

-129

4.00%

-12.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

08/19/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

3

-2

-1

13

-9

3

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

1

-3

-2

4

-11

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E N Central

8

3

1

16

-6

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W N Central

5

-1

3

22

-4

14

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Mountain

1

-5

1

6

-23

5

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

-5

0

3

-31

-5

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

United States

2

-1

0

6

-10

1

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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