Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Aug-27-2024

Aug 27, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 7:47 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$1.919

$1.956

-1.89%

-$0.037

9,366

 

 

WTI

$76.92

$77.42

-0.65%

-$0.50

78,445

 

 

Brent

$81.04

$81.43

-0.48%

-$0.39

4,242

 

 

ULSD

$2.326

$2.348

-0.92%

-$0.022

1,179

 

 

RBOB

$2.285

$2.280

0.22%

$0.005

814

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.07

$4.01

1.50%

$0.06

Oct-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$15.61

$15.53

0.52%

$0.08

Oct-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$35.81

$36.02

-0.57%

-$0.21

Sep-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

08/23/24

585

-1

-47

08/26/23

 

 

Canada

08/23/24

219

2

29

08/26/23

 

 

International

July

934

-23

-27

July

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 8/20/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

89,886

89,399

89,317

82

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

81,028

80,869

80,055

814

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

345,334

330,181

333,415

-3,234

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

148,882

125,838

123,062

2,776

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

149,339

141,582

140,788

794

 

 

NYM Ethanol

39,057

38,169

38,537

-368

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

160,561

159,460

159,963

-503

 

 

RBOB

362,597

345,283

342,287

2,996

 

 

HSC Basis

850,090

843,155

840,053

3,102

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$84.00

$86.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.40

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

12.00

12.90

13.20

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.30

$3.30

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

40.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

08/16/19

 

 

 

8/16/24

8/9/24

Net Change

% Change

8/18/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

735

723

12

1.66%

731

0.55%

688

6.77%

 

 

Midwest

888

869

19

2.19%

831

6.86%

804

10.42%

 

 

Mountain

263

260

3

1.15%

206

27.67%

186

41.55%

 

 

Pacific

288

287

1

0.35%

242

19.01%

262

10.09%

 

 

South

1,125

1,125

0

0.00%

1,072

4.94%

1,010

11.41%

 

 

    Salt

280

286

-6

-2.10%

260

7.69%

239

16.96%

 

 

    Non_Salt

845

839

6

0.72%

813

3.94%

771

9.65%

 

 

Total

3,299

3,264

35

1.07%

3,083

7.01%

2,950

11.83%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/26/24

8/23/24

% Change

Change

7/29/24

% Change

8/25/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Sep-24

$39.91

$40.20

-0.72%

-$0.29

$49.38

-19.17%

$46.33

-13.85%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Sep-24

$42.51

$44.72

-4.94%

-$2.21

$68.74

-38.16%

$58.76

-27.65%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Sep-24

$37.00

$36.00

2.78%

$1.00

$54.00

-31.48%

$99.84

-62.94%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Sep-24

$37.12

$37.02

0.27%

$0.10

$47.98

-22.64%

$52.27

-28.98%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Sep-24

$38.10

$39.15

-2.67%

-$1.05

$41.63

-8.49%

$45.12

-15.55%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Sep-24

$61.75

$62.50

-1.20%

-$0.75

$89.00

-30.62%

$123.35

-49.94%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Sep-24

$35.94

$36.12

-0.49%

-$0.18

$39.87

-9.87%

$43.61

-17.59%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/26/24

8/23/24

% Change

Change

7/29/24

% Change

8/25/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Sep-24

$1.956

$2.022

-3.26%

-$0.07

$2.04

-3.93%

$3.36

-41.84%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Sep-24

-$0.330

-$0.308

7.11%

-$0.02

-$0.42

-20.56%

-$0.31

4.83%

 

 

Chicago

Sep-24

-$0.412

-$0.398

-3.54%

-$0.01

-$0.36

14.87%

-$0.26

57.68%

 

 

Waha

Sep-24

-$3.018

-$2.883

-4.70%

-$0.14

-$1.64

83.87%

-$0.59

414.86%

 

 

Algonquin

Sep-24

-$0.322

-$0.335

3.80%

$0.01

-$0.38

-15.18%

-$0.76

-57.71%

 

 

Aeco

Sep-24

-$1.441

-$1.455

-1.02%

$0.01

-$1.26

14.10%

-$1.24

15.87%

 

 

Socal

Sep-24

-$0.430

-$0.346

24.31%

-$0.08

$0.39

-209.09%

$1.56

-127.54%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/26/24

8/23/24

% Change

Change

7/29/24

% Change

8/25/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Sep-24

$0.800

$0.792

0.95%

$0.01

$0.78

3.21%

$0.72

10.60%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Sep-24

$0.799

$0.790

1.12%

$0.01

$0.78

2.06%

$0.72

11.09%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Sep-24

$0.160

$0.157

1.63%

$0.00

$0.15

6.17%

$0.27

-39.91%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Sep-24

$1.551

$1.515

2.37%

$0.04

$1.47

5.69%

$1.49

4.25%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Sep-24

$0.976

$0.962

1.49%

$0.01

$0.92

6.32%

$0.81

20.35%

 

 

Far East Propane

Sep-24

$6.570

$6.496

1.13%

$0.07

$6.28

4.64%

$5.44

20.68%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Sep-24

$6.080

$5.970

1.84%

$0.11

$5.86

3.75%

$4.99

21.88%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/26/24

8/23/24

% Change

Change

7/29/24

% Change

8/25/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Oct-24

$77.42

$74.83

3.35%

$2.59

$74.80

3.50%

$75.30

2.82%

 

 

Brent

Oct-24

$81.43

$79.02

2.96%

$2.41

$79.05

3.01%

$79.89

1.93%

 

 

WCS

Oct-24

-$12.78

-$13.06

-2.16%

$0.28

-$16.25

-21.32%

-$14.93

-14.36%

 

 

LLS

Oct-24

$76.71

$75.48

1.61%

$1.23

$75.93

1.03%

$76.94

-0.30%

 

 

Mars

Oct-24

$74.13

$72.93

1.61%

$1.19

$73.46

0.90%

$74.10

0.03%

 

 

Sour

Oct-24

$75.58

$74.17

1.87%

$1.41

$74.48

1.48%

$75.15

0.57%

 

 

ESPO

Oct-24

$79.43

$77.02

3.03%

$2.41

$77.05

3.09%

$77.89

1.98%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/26/24

8/23/24

% Change

Change

7/29/24

% Change

8/25/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Sep-24

$2.35

$2.31

1.90%

$0.04

$2.39

-1.71%

$2.66

-11.47%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Sep-24

$2.28

$2.29

-0.26%

-$0.01

$2.37

-3.84%

$2.42

-5.78%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Sep-24

$2.18

$2.19

-0.27%

-$0.01

$2.27

-4.01%

$2.32

-6.03%

 

 

GC Jet

Sep-24

$2.20

$2.16

1.57%

$0.03

$2.27

-3.26%

$2.42

-9.09%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Sep-24

$1.84

$1.83

0.82%

$0.01

$1.77

3.66%

$1.82

1.32%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Sep-24

$679.96

$668.40

1.73%

$11.56

$706.17

-3.71%

$733.43

-7.29%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Sep-24

$92.20

$90.09

2.34%

$2.11

$95.96

-3.92%

$100.24

-8.02%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/26/24

8/23/24

% Change

Change

7/29/24

% Change

8/25/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Oct-24

61.45%

70.64%

-13.01%

-9.19%

61.17%

0.46%

44.41%

38.37%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Oct-24

93.01%

108.39%

-14.19%

-15.38%

80.08%

16.15%

49.04%

89.66%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Oct-24

1688.43%

1718.09%

-1.73%

-29.66%

184.34%

815.93%

49.27%

3326.89%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Oct-24

86.92%

100.61%

-13.61%

-13.69%

67.02%

29.69%

44.99%

93.20%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Oct-24

46.44%

45.68%

1.66%

0.76%

49.92%

-6.97%

44.02%

5.50%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Oct-24

207.16%

199.10%

4.05%

8.06%

110.51%

87.46%

32.17%

543.95%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Oct-24

153.71%

155.99%

-1.46%

-2.28%

160.75%

-4.38%

58.38%

163.29%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/26/24

8/23/24

% Change

Change

7/29/24

% Change

8/25/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Oct-24

EUR 38.32

EUR 37.25

2.89%

EUR 1.08

EUR 35.92

6.68%

EUR 52.41

-26.87%

 

 

NBP

Oct-24

GBP 93.00

GBP 90.51

2.75%

GBP 2.49

GBP 87.33

6.49%

GBP 136.91

-32.07%

 

 

German Base

Oct-24

EUR 89.98

EUR 89.04

1.05%

EUR 0.93

EUR 83.62

7.60%

EUR 145.61

-38.21%

 

 

UK Base

Oct-24

GBP 79.24

GBP 78.92

0.40%

GBP 0.32

GBP 74.56

6.27%

GBP 130.92

-39.48%

 

 

French Base

Oct-24

EUR 73.91

EUR 73.63

0.38%

EUR 0.28

EUR 62.58

18.11%

EUR 177.86

-58.44%

 

 

Italian Base

Oct-24

EUR 121.91

EUR 120.31

1.33%

EUR 1.60

EUR 110.99

9.84%

EUR 158.32

-23.00%

 

 

JKM LNG

Oct-24

$14.78

$13.26

11.46%

$1.52

$12.68

16.54%

$16.60

-10.99%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/26/24

8/23/24

% Change

Change

7/29/24

% Change

8/25/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Oct-24

$38.32

$37.25

2.89%

$1.08

$35.92

6.68%

$52.41

-26.87%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Oct-24

$93.00

$90.51

2.75%

$2.49

$87.33

6.49%

$136.91

-32.07%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Oct-24

$89.98

$89.04

1.05%

$0.93

$83.62

7.60%

$145.61

-38.21%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Oct-24

$79.24

$78.92

0.40%

$0.32

$74.56

6.27%

$130.92

-39.48%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Oct-24

$73.91

$73.63

0.38%

$0.28

$62.58

18.11%

$177.86

-58.44%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Oct-24

$121.91

$120.31

1.33%

$1.60

$110.99

9.84%

$158.32

-23.00%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Oct-24

$14.78

$13.26

11.46%

$1.52

$12.68

16.54%

$16.60

-10.99%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

08/24/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

13

-15

-8

524

150

88

40.00%

20.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

26

-15

-7

680

121

107

22.00%

19.00%

 

 

E N Central

17

-23

-38

610

2

50

0.00%

9.00%

 

 

W N Central

44

-10

-50

760

-24

-84

-3.00%

-10.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

71

-15

-20

1,587

169

77

12.00%

5.00%

 

 

E S Central

68

-14

-34

1,377

175

125

15.00%

10.00%

 

 

W S Central

139

22

-18

2,052

232

-96

13.00%

-4.00%

 

 

Mountain

72

5

10

1,060

103

112

11.00%

12.00%

 

 

Pacific

33

-9

-5

623

126

108

25.00%

21.00%

 

 

United States

53

-10

-19

1,047

115

57

12.00%

6.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

08/24/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

11

4

5

18

-9

1

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

8

4

5

12

-5

6

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

16

9

12

36

10

20

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

4

-4

2

30

-2

7

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

2

2

2

2

2

2

NA

NA

 

 

E S Central

2

2

2

2

2

1

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

1

-8

0

7

-29

0

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

7

1

4

13

-25

7

NA

NA

 

 

United States

6

2

4

13

-6

6

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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