Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Aug-31-2023

Aug 31, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:54 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.747

$2.796

-1.75%

-$0.049

40,172

 

 

WTI

$82.56

$81.63

1.14%

$0.93

113,006

 

 

Brent

$86.64

$85.86

0.91%

$0.78

90

 

 

ULSD

$3.076

$3.096

-0.66%

-$0.020

1,203

 

 

RBOB

$2.806

$2.809

-0.13%

-$0.004

421

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.09

$4.23

-3.31%

-$0.14

Oct-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$31.77

$33.17

-4.22%

-$1.40

Oct-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

NA

NA

NA

NA

Sep-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

08/25/23

632

-10

-133

08/26/22

 

 

Canada

08/25/23

190

1

-11

08/26/22

 

 

International

July

961

-6

128

July

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 8/22/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

106,847

106,412

106,462

-50

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

93,985

93,460

93,329

131

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

429,747

404,994

417,586

-12,592

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

143,395

114,595

111,190

3,405

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

135,073

125,749

127,400

-1,651

 

 

NYM Ethanol

35,589

35,267

35,087

180

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

155,347

154,634

154,816

-182

 

 

RBOB

377,598

350,159

363,785

-13,626

 

 

HSC Basis

618,354

614,252

607,484

6,768

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

08/24/18

 

 

 

8/18/23

8/11/23

Net Change

% Change

8/19/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

731

717

14

1.95%

598

22.24%

675

8.36%

 

 

Midwest

831

812

19

2.34%

714

16.39%

777

6.89%

 

 

Mountain

206

202

4

1.98%

153

34.64%

177

16.38%

 

 

Pacific

242

240

2

0.83%

243

-0.41%

262

-7.70%

 

 

South

1,072

1,093

-21

-1.92%

871

23.08%

955

12.23%

 

 

    Salt

260

272

-12

-4.41%

184

41.30%

223

16.70%

 

 

    Non_Salt

813

821

-8

-0.97%

687

18.34%

733

10.97%

 

 

Total

3,083

3,065

18

0.59%

2,579

19.54%

2,846

8.31%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/30/23

8/29/23

% Change

Change

8/2/23

% Change

8/31/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Sep-23

$47.26

$46.07

2.58%

$1.19

$39.18

20.60%

$77.61

-39.11%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Sep-23

$139.68

$114.37

22.13%

$25.31

$60.95

129.15%

$79.01

76.80%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Sep-23

$75.00

$75.12

-0.15%

-$0.12

$103.24

-27.35%

$114.95

-34.75%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Sep-23

$52.20

$50.73

2.91%

$1.47

$44.86

16.36%

$80.40

-35.07%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Sep-23

$35.44

$34.03

4.16%

$1.42

$33.47

5.89%

$65.98

-46.29%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Sep-23

$88.49

$93.29

-5.15%

-$4.80

$154.30

-42.65%

$133.76

-33.84%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Sep-23

$36.98

$35.20

5.06%

$1.78

$35.46

4.29%

$60.02

-38.38%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/30/23

8/29/23

% Change

Change

8/2/23

% Change

8/31/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Oct-23

$2.796

$2.662

5.03%

$0.13

$2.59

8.12%

$5.90

-52.59%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Oct-23

-$0.362

-$0.356

1.74%

-$0.01

-$0.34

6.65%

-$0.28

29.20%

 

 

Chicago

Oct-23

-$0.310

-$0.294

-5.26%

-$0.02

-$0.28

9.08%

-$0.29

6.64%

 

 

Waha

Oct-23

-$0.951

-$0.921

-3.19%

-$0.03

-$0.67

41.16%

-$2.05

-53.62%

 

 

Algonquin

Oct-23

-$1.077

-$1.033

-4.17%

-$0.04

-$0.84

27.89%

-$1.25

-13.75%

 

 

Aeco

Oct-23

-$0.704

-$0.682

3.20%

-$0.02

-$0.61

15.66%

-$1.80

-61.01%

 

 

Socal

Oct-23

$1.334

$1.298

2.80%

$0.04

$1.88

-29.10%

-$0.25

-634.63%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/30/23

8/29/23

% Change

Change

8/2/23

% Change

8/31/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Sep-23

$0.685

$0.688

-0.37%

$0.00

$0.76

-9.42%

$0.95

-28.18%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Sep-23

$0.690

$0.687

0.37%

$0.00

$0.74

-7.07%

$0.95

-27.46%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Sep-23

$0.281

$0.277

1.31%

$0.00

$0.24

14.76%

$0.42

-32.32%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Sep-23

$1.595

$1.577

1.16%

$0.02

$1.56

2.27%

$1.64

-2.69%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Sep-23

$0.844

$0.825

2.26%

$0.02

$0.86

-1.77%

$1.06

-20.58%

 

 

Conway Propane

Sep-23

$0.700

$0.683

2.55%

$0.02

$0.74

-4.80%

$0.96

-27.06%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Sep-23

$1.633

$1.600

2.02%

$0.03

$1.58

3.51%

$1.62

0.81%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/30/23

8/29/23

% Change

Change

8/2/23

% Change

8/31/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Oct-23

$81.63

$81.16

0.58%

$0.47

$79.13

3.16%

$80.85

0.96%

 

 

Brent

Oct-23

$85.86

$85.49

0.43%

$0.37

$83.20

3.20%

$86.07

-0.24%

 

 

WCS

Oct-23

-$18.72

-$15.38

17.84%

-$3.34

-$16.73

11.88%

-$17.70

5.77%

 

 

LLS

Oct-23

$83.04

$82.76

0.33%

$0.28

$80.87

2.68%

$82.45

0.71%

 

 

Mars

Oct-23

$80.91

$79.79

1.38%

$1.12

$78.81

2.66%

$78.49

3.08%

 

 

Sour

Oct-23

$81.82

$80.76

1.30%

$1.06

$79.46

2.97%

$79.75

2.60%

 

 

ESPO

Oct-23

$83.86

$83.49

0.44%

$0.37

$81.20

3.28%

$83.86

0.00%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/30/23

8/29/23

% Change

Change

8/2/23

% Change

8/31/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Sep-23

$3.10

$3.20

-3.18%

-$0.10

$3.01

3.02%

$2.99

3.85%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Sep-23

$2.58

$2.59

-0.43%

-$0.01

$2.79

-7.64%

$2.41

6.76%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Sep-23

$2.47

$2.49

-0.44%

-$0.01

$2.69

-7.92%

$2.31

7.05%

 

 

GC Jet

Sep-23

$3.03

$3.06

-0.92%

-$0.03

$2.82

7.40%

$2.44

24.36%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Sep-23

$2.26

$2.20

2.64%

$0.06

$2.08

8.46%

$2.14

5.62%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Sep-23

$851.30

$877.46

-2.98%

-$26.17

$819.45

3.89%

$850.08

0.14%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Sep-23

$116.29

$116.84

-0.47%

-$0.55

$111.99

3.83%

$107.83

7.84%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/30/23

8/29/23

% Change

Change

8/2/23

% Change

8/31/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Oct-23

65.09%

69.22%

-5.97%

-4.13%

62.55%

4.06%

54.56%

19.30%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Oct-23

81.37%

89.85%

-9.44%

-8.48%

72.01%

13.00%

62.05%

31.14%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Oct-23

94.02%

97.48%

-3.55%

-3.46%

85.30%

10.22%

113.31%

-17.02%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Oct-23

68.63%

72.08%

-4.79%

-3.45%

68.87%

-0.35%

56.18%

22.16%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Oct-23

55.56%

51.90%

7.05%

3.66%

49.72%

11.75%

49.27%

12.77%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Oct-23

207.70%

177.30%

17.15%

30.40%

109.48%

89.72%

54.38%

281.94%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Oct-23

314.94%

327.35%

-3.79%

-12.41%

187.43%

68.03%

72.78%

332.73%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/30/23

8/29/23

% Change

Change

8/2/23

% Change

8/31/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Oct-23

EUR 38.69

EUR 37.39

3.46%

EUR 1.29

EUR 34.04

13.63%

EUR 171.66

-77.46%

 

 

NBP

Oct-23

GBP 95.46

GBP 94.76

0.74%

GBP 0.70

GBP 85.71

11.37%

GBP 461.01

-79.29%

 

 

German Base

Oct-23

EUR 111.28

EUR 100.63

10.58%

EUR 10.64

EUR 90.41

23.08%

EUR 694.46

-83.98%

 

 

UK Base

Oct-23

GBP 92.19

GBP 93.93

-1.85%

-GBP 1.73

GBP 80.82

14.07%

GBP 363.51

-74.64%

 

 

French Base

Oct-23

EUR 105.18

EUR 103.18

1.93%

EUR 2.00

EUR 96.62

8.86%

EUR 797.24

-86.81%

 

 

Italian Base

Oct-23

EUR 124.28

EUR 122.81

1.20%

EUR 1.47

EUR 111.44

11.53%

EUR 386.76

-67.87%

 

 

JKM LNG

Oct-23

$14.03

$12.75

10.01%

$1.28

$10.60

32.36%

$45.50

-69.16%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

08/26/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

22

-4

-36

442

61

-135

16.00%

-23.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

39

0

-28

582

12

-142

2.00%

-20.00%

 

 

E N Central

69

31

29

567

-51

-131

-8.00%

-19.00%

 

 

W N Central

103

52

52

852

54

-57

7.00%

-6.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

99

14

8

1,526

86

-112

6.00%

-7.00%

 

 

E S Central

119

39

41

1,270

46

-142

4.00%

-10.00%

 

 

W S Central

160

45

55

2,171

320

-81

17.00%

-4.00%

 

 

Mountain

63

-2

0

958

-16

-111

-2.00%

-10.00%

 

 

Pacific

38

-4

-28

523

14

-148

3.00%

-22.00%

 

 

United States

78

17

8

1,002

54

-120

6.00%

-11.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

08/26/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

7

0

6

20

-10

9

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

2

-2

2

6

-12

2

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E N Central

1

-6

-1

16

-13

-1

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W N Central

1

-8

0

23

-12

14

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

0

-1

0

0

-1

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

-1

0

0

-1

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Mountain

1

-9

0

7

-32

5

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Pacific

3

-3

3

6

-34

-3

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

United States

1

-3

1

7

-13

1

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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