Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Dec-01-2023

Dec 1, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:07 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.774

$2.802

-1.00%

-$0.028

20,502

 

 

WTI

$76.00

$75.96

0.05%

$0.04

87,018

 

 

Brent

$80.77

$82.83

-2.49%

-$2.06

7,385

 

 

ULSD

$2.717

$2.830

-4.02%

-$0.114

7,273

 

 

RBOB

$2.187

$2.200

-0.57%

-$0.013

7,192

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.70

$4.81

-2.29%

-$0.11

Feb-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$22.77

$22.96

-0.79%

-$0.18

Jan-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

NA

NA

NA

NA

Dec-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

11/22/23

622

4

-162

11/23/22

 

 

Canada

11/22/23

197

1

3

11/23/22

 

 

International

Nov

978

16

68

Nov

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 11/14/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

90,618

90,259

90,266

-7

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

81,857

81,424

81,266

158

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

405,693

382,163

393,011

-10,848

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

312,109

267,975

229,366

38,609

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

129,852

120,440

123,789

-3,349

 

 

NYM Ethanol

32,425

31,919

31,587

332

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

153,502

152,988

153,141

-153

 

 

RBOB

328,716

303,888

313,047

-9,159

 

 

HSC Basis

657,514

650,471

650,073

398

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

11/30/18

 

 

 

11/24/23

11/17/23

Net Change

% Change

11/25/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

915

918

-3

-0.33%

840

8.93%

857

6.79%

 

 

Midwest

1,111

1,118

-7

-0.63%

1,040

6.83%

1,032

7.68%

 

 

Mountain

252

255

-3

-1.18%

197

27.92%

202

24.63%

 

 

Pacific

298

296

2

0.68%

226

31.86%

269

10.70%

 

 

South

1,260

1,240

20

1.61%

1,181

6.69%

1,154

9.17%

 

 

    Salt

343

331

12

3.63%

314

9.24%

319

7.46%

 

 

    Non_Salt

917

909

8

0.88%

867

5.77%

835

9.79%

 

 

Total

3,836

3,826

10

0.26%

3,483

10.13%

3,514

9.18%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/30/23

11/29/23

% Change

Change

11/1/23

% Change

12/1/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Dec-23

$44.98

$44.95

0.06%

$0.03

$51.79

-13.16%

$84.51

-46.78%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Dec-23

$42.47

$41.47

2.40%

$1.00

$47.15

-9.94%

$52.74

-19.48%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Dec-23

$67.88

$68.06

-0.26%

-$0.18

$93.12

-27.10%

$92.40

-26.53%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Dec-23

$41.69

$41.22

1.13%

$0.47

$49.06

-15.03%

$83.19

-49.89%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Dec-23

$66.66

$68.22

-2.29%

-$1.56

$77.20

-13.65%

$184.65

-63.90%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Dec-23

$109.33

$107.60

1.60%

$1.73

$126.35

-13.47%

$126.67

-13.69%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Dec-23

$51.85

$52.51

-1.27%

-$0.67

$60.94

-14.91%

$112.83

-54.05%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/30/23

11/29/23

% Change

Change

11/1/23

% Change

12/1/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Jan-24

$2.802

$2.804

-0.07%

$0.00

$3.75

-25.34%

$6.19

-54.76%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Jan-24

$0.305

$0.324

-5.87%

-$0.02

$0.39

-22.59%

-$0.02

-1608.42%

 

 

Chicago

Jan-24

$0.619

$0.546

-11.88%

$0.07

$0.89

-30.23%

$0.79

-21.37%

 

 

Waha

Jan-24

-$0.019

-$0.027

-29.45%

$0.01

$0.32

-106.05%

-$0.69

-97.19%

 

 

Algonquin

Jan-24

$9.930

$9.946

-0.16%

-$0.02

$10.86

-8.58%

$22.50

-55.86%

 

 

Aeco

Jan-24

-$0.869

-$0.890

-2.42%

$0.02

-$1.40

-37.79%

-$1.81

-51.94%

 

 

Socal

Jan-24

$2.641

$2.505

5.45%

$0.14

$4.80

-45.02%

$1.63

61.77%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/30/23

11/29/23

% Change

Change

11/1/23

% Change

12/1/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Dec-23

$0.672

$0.655

2.64%

$0.02

$0.67

0.34%

$0.86

-21.43%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Dec-23

$0.653

$0.659

-0.92%

-$0.01

$0.67

-3.32%

$0.83

-21.59%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Dec-23

$0.218

$0.212

2.44%

$0.01

$0.26

-15.51%

$0.35

-37.45%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Dec-23

$1.483

$1.490

-0.46%

-$0.01

$1.50

-1.13%

$1.52

-2.24%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Dec-23

$0.901

$0.886

1.71%

$0.02

$0.86

4.64%

$0.95

-5.25%

 

 

Far East Propane

Dec-23

$6.629

$6.628

0.02%

$0.00

$7.19

-7.79%

$5.87

12.94%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Dec-23

$6.164

$5.950

3.59%

$0.21

$5.98

3.15%

$5.46

12.84%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/30/23

11/29/23

% Change

Change

11/1/23

% Change

12/1/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Jan-24

$75.96

$77.86

-2.50%

-$1.90

$80.10

-5.17%

$77.42

-1.89%

 

 

Brent

Jan-24

$81.02

$83.10

-2.57%

-$2.08

$84.63

-4.27%

$82.83

-2.19%

 

 

WCS

Jan-24

-$23.34

-$25.06

-7.37%

$1.72

-$27.52

-15.20%

-$27.99

-16.62%

 

 

LLS

Jan-24

$79.46

$79.57

-0.14%

-$0.11

$83.58

-4.93%

$79.79

-0.42%

 

 

Mars

Jan-24

$76.80

$77.06

-0.34%

-$0.26

$80.52

-4.63%

$74.83

2.63%

 

 

Sour

Jan-24

$76.39

$78.38

-2.60%

-$1.99

$79.48

-3.89%

$75.27

1.50%

 

 

ESPO

Jan-24

$79.02

$81.10

-2.64%

-$2.08

$82.63

-4.37%

$80.90

-2.32%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/30/23

11/29/23

% Change

Change

11/1/23

% Change

12/1/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Dec-23

$2.84

$2.84

0.14%

$0.00

$2.90

-2.10%

$2.85

-0.28%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Dec-23

$2.21

$2.17

1.80%

$0.04

$2.19

0.73%

$2.24

-1.38%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Dec-23

$2.11

$2.07

1.88%

$0.04

$2.10

0.76%

$2.14

-1.45%

 

 

GC Jet

Dec-23

$2.45

$2.49

-1.65%

-$0.04

$2.89

-15.42%

$2.57

-4.82%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Dec-23

$1.79

$1.75

2.35%

$0.04

$1.79

-0.17%

$2.02

-11.67%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Dec-23

$749.53

$767.73

-2.37%

-$18.20

$800.00

-6.31%

$765.11

-2.04%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Dec-23

$108.20

$107.02

1.11%

$1.19

$108.08

0.12%

$102.97

5.09%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/30/23

11/29/23

% Change

Change

11/1/23

% Change

12/1/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Jan-24

66.44%

66.94%

-0.75%

-0.50%

66.69%

-0.37%

60.29%

10.20%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Jan-24

87.35%

83.87%

4.15%

3.48%

89.55%

-2.46%

87.01%

0.39%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Jan-24

77.93%

71.64%

8.78%

6.29%

65.17%

19.58%

76.94%

1.29%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Jan-24

66.18%

60.23%

9.88%

5.95%

63.63%

4.01%

57.91%

14.28%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Jan-24

75.70%

75.15%

0.73%

0.55%

77.86%

-2.77%

60.38%

25.37%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Jan-24

109.55%

102.70%

6.67%

6.85%

122.31%

-10.43%

62.08%

76.47%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Jan-24

262.70%

306.85%

-14.39%

-44.15%

215.90%

21.68%

115.18%

128.08%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/30/23

11/29/23

% Change

Change

11/1/23

% Change

12/1/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Jan-24

EUR 41.88

EUR 40.74

2.80%

EUR 1.14

EUR 50.70

-17.40%

EUR 140.93

-70.28%

 

 

NBP

Jan-24

GBP 106.82

GBP 104.16

2.55%

GBP 2.65

GBP 133.08

-19.73%

GBP 359.45

-70.28%

 

 

German Base

Jan-24

EUR 101.18

EUR 98.93

2.27%

EUR 2.25

EUR 116.31

-13.01%

EUR 440.03

-77.01%

 

 

UK Base

Jan-24

GBP 99.46

GBP 101.20

-1.72%

-GBP 1.74

GBP 119.01

-16.43%

GBP 351.73

-71.72%

 

 

French Base

Jan-24

EUR 105.44

EUR 105.11

0.32%

EUR 0.33

EUR 133.15

-20.81%

EUR 591.62

-82.18%

 

 

Italian Base

Jan-24

EUR 120.31

EUR 120.84

-0.44%

-EUR 0.53

EUR 151.25

-20.45%

EUR 374.08

-67.84%

 

 

JKM LNG

Jan-24

$17.05

$16.38

4.13%

$0.68

$17.50

-2.57%

$42.97

-60.32%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/30/23

11/29/23

% Change

Change

11/1/23

% Change

12/1/22

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Jan-24

$41.88

$40.74

2.80%

$1.14

$50.70

-17.40%

$140.93

-70.28%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Jan-24

$106.82

$104.16

2.55%

$2.65

$133.08

-19.73%

$359.45

-70.28%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Jan-24

$101.18

$98.93

2.27%

$2.25

$116.31

-13.01%

$440.03

-77.01%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Jan-24

$99.46

$101.20

-1.72%

-$1.74

$119.01

-16.43%

$351.73

-71.72%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Jan-24

$105.44

$105.11

0.32%

$0.33

$133.15

-20.81%

$591.62

-82.18%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Jan-24

$120.31

$120.84

-0.44%

-$0.53

$151.25

-20.45%

$374.08

-67.84%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Jan-24

$17.05

$16.38

4.13%

$0.68

$17.50

-2.57%

$42.97

-60.32%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

11/25/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

551

134

-102

32.00%

-15.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

698

42

-158

6.00%

-18.00%

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

664

-45

-162

-6.00%

-20.00%

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

1,057

130

-34

14.00%

-3.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

10

-1

-1

2,026

102

-107

5.00%

-5.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

-1

0

1,632

88

-90

6.00%

-5.00%

 

 

W S Central

3

-2

3

2,933

497

46

20.00%

2.00%

 

 

Mountain

0

0

0

1,253

10

-131

1.00%

-9.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

-1

0

695

-8

-280

-1.00%

-29.00%

 

 

United States

2

-1

0

1,300

92

-128

8.00%

-9.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11/25/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

204

20

-14

1,076

-165

38

-13.00%

4.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

176

6

-26

926

-135

-7

-13.00%

-1.00%

 

 

E N Central

194

-1

-28

1,049

-137

-92

-12.00%

-8.00%

 

 

W N Central

211

-8

-14

1,075

-202

-152

-16.00%

-12.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

86

-3

-22

397

-60

-68

-13.00%

-15.00%

 

 

E S Central

116

-2

-37

482

-120

-179

-20.00%

-27.00%

 

 

W S Central

86

5

-36

307

-12

-93

-4.00%

-23.00%

 

 

Mountain

174

-1

-22

886

-199

-162

-18.00%

-15.00%

 

 

Pacific

96

-8

-1

476

-134

-80

-22.00%

-14.00%

 

 

United States

140

0

-22

697

-116

-81

-14.00%

-10.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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