Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Dec-04-2024

Dec 4, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:28 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$3.038

$3.042

-0.13%

-$0.004

39,437

 

 

WTI

$70.18

$69.94

0.34%

$0.24

69,232

 

 

Brent

$73.90

$73.62

0.38%

$0.28

10,485

 

 

ULSD

$2.211

$2.218

-0.31%

-$0.007

11,513

 

 

RBOB

$1.971

$1.962

0.42%

$0.008

6,258

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.16

$4.08

1.96%

$0.08

Feb-25

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$16.71

$16.72

-0.09%

-$0.01

Jan-25

 

 

PJM West Spark

$50.43

$52.97

-4.79%

-$2.54

Jan-25

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

11/27/24

582

-1

-43

12/02/23

 

 

Canada

11/27/24

205

4

13

12/02/23

 

 

International

Oct

950

3

-12

Oct

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 11/19/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

86,366

85,863

85,759

104

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

82,966

82,786

81,882

904

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

334,339

322,547

321,809

738

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

147,249

123,039

120,452

2,587

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

159,456

150,760

153,927

-3,167

 

 

NYM Ethanol

34,894

34,079

34,383

-304

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

144,721

143,705

144,281

-576

 

 

RBOB

365,715

342,232

347,861

-5,629

 

 

HSC Basis

830,969

822,612

820,113

2,499

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$83.00

$84.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.30

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

12.00

12.90

13.30

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

11/22/19

 

 

 

11/22/24

11/15/24

Net Change

% Change

11/24/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

929

931

-2

-0.21%

915

1.53%

890

4.38%

 

 

Midwest

1,134

1,140

-6

-0.53%

1,111

2.07%

1,074

5.63%

 

 

Mountain

292

293

-1

-0.34%

252

15.87%

220

32.85%

 

 

Pacific

310

313

-3

-0.96%

298

4.03%

280

10.87%

 

 

South

1,301

1,291

10

0.77%

1,260

3.25%

1,224

6.33%

 

 

    Salt

353

347

6

1.73%

343

2.92%

333

6.13%

 

 

    Non_Salt

948

944

4

0.42%

917

3.38%

891

6.37%

 

 

Total

3,967

3,969

-2

-0.05%

3,836

3.42%

3,686

7.61%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/3/24

12/2/24

% Change

Change

11/4/24

% Change

12/4/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Jan-25

$56.90

$59.47

-4.32%

-$2.57

$60.15

-5.40%

$67.37

-15.53%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Jan-25

$53.62

$53.05

1.08%

$0.57

$52.89

1.39%

$86.03

-37.67%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Jan-25

$50.15

$50.50

-0.69%

-$0.35

$53.75

-6.70%

$84.41

-40.59%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Jan-25

$51.23

$51.95

-1.39%

-$0.72

$53.02

-3.38%

$61.20

-16.29%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Jan-25

$105.16

$111.99

-6.10%

-$6.83

$100.45

4.69%

$139.86

-24.81%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Jan-25

$81.49

$79.59

2.38%

$1.90

$91.88

-11.31%

$109.03

-25.26%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Jan-25

$82.30

$89.22

-7.76%

-$6.92

$81.30

1.24%

$101.58

-18.98%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/3/24

12/2/24

% Change

Change

11/4/24

% Change

12/4/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Jan-25

$3.042

$3.213

-5.32%

-$0.17

$3.04

0.20%

$4.14

-26.49%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Jan-25

-$0.138

-$0.172

-19.66%

$0.03

-$0.18

-23.32%

$0.23

-160.15%

 

 

Chicago

Jan-25

$0.735

$0.743

1.12%

-$0.01

$0.79

-6.54%

$0.79

-7.50%

 

 

Waha

Jan-25

-$0.513

-$0.581

-11.61%

$0.07

-$0.78

-34.50%

-$0.06

759.46%

 

 

Algonquin

Jan-25

$8.623

$8.866

-2.74%

-$0.24

$7.97

8.22%

$10.56

-18.31%

 

 

Aeco

Jan-25

-$1.611

-$1.704

-5.44%

$0.09

-$1.61

-0.11%

-$1.33

21.43%

 

 

Socal

Jan-25

$0.963

$0.826

16.57%

$0.14

$1.83

-47.45%

$2.87

-66.45%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/3/24

12/2/24

% Change

Change

11/4/24

% Change

12/4/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Jan-25

$0.819

$0.810

1.04%

$0.01

$0.82

0.24%

$0.72

14.48%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Jan-25

$0.821

$0.811

1.20%

$0.01

$0.82

-0.45%

$0.72

14.22%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Jan-25

$0.219

$0.222

-1.61%

$0.00

$0.19

12.91%

$0.27

-18.77%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Jan-25

$1.460

$1.440

1.38%

$0.02

$1.51

-3.35%

$1.41

3.26%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Jan-25

$1.085

$1.080

0.47%

$0.01

$1.06

2.58%

$0.89

21.98%

 

 

Far East Propane

Jan-25

$6.171

$6.086

1.41%

$0.09

$6.33

-2.50%

$5.82

6.00%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Jan-25

$6.289

$6.240

0.79%

$0.05

$6.20

1.46%

$5.36

17.44%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/3/24

12/2/24

% Change

Change

11/4/24

% Change

12/4/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Jan-25

$69.94

$68.10

2.63%

$1.84

$71.03

-1.53%

$71.95

-2.79%

 

 

Brent

Jan-25

$73.83

$71.98

2.51%

$1.85

$75.08

-1.67%

$76.34

-3.29%

 

 

WCS

Jan-25

-$11.96

-$12.36

-3.37%

$0.40

-$13.19

-9.31%

-$14.41

-17.02%

 

 

LLS

Jan-25

$69.70

$69.53

0.24%

$0.17

$72.66

-4.07%

$73.14

-4.70%

 

 

Mars

Jan-25

$67.40

$67.04

0.54%

$0.36

$69.23

-2.65%

$70.39

-4.25%

 

 

Sour

Jan-25

$68.22

$68.18

0.06%

$0.04

$71.09

-4.04%

$71.57

-4.68%

 

 

ESPO

Jan-25

$71.83

$69.98

2.58%

$1.85

$73.08

-1.71%

$74.34

-3.38%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/3/24

12/2/24

% Change

Change

11/4/24

% Change

12/4/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Jan-25

$2.22

$2.17

1.93%

$0.04

$2.29

-3.27%

$2.47

-10.32%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Jan-25

$1.97

$1.92

2.50%

$0.05

$2.00

-1.75%

$2.02

-2.63%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Jan-25

$1.87

$1.82

2.64%

$0.05

$1.90

-1.84%

$1.92

-2.76%

 

 

GC Jet

Jan-25

$2.07

$2.01

2.53%

$0.05

$2.12

-2.36%

$2.61

-20.76%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Jan-25

$1.54

$1.53

0.98%

$0.01

$1.56

-1.15%

$1.67

-7.54%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Jan-25

$629.23

$616.53

2.06%

$12.70

$641.74

-1.95%

$682.48

-7.80%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Jan-25

$86.96

$87.36

-0.46%

-$0.41

$88.58

-1.83%

$95.92

-9.35%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/3/24

12/2/24

% Change

Change

11/4/24

% Change

12/4/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Jan-25

71.72%

80.27%

-10.65%

-8.55%

62.67%

14.44%

41.97%

70.88%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Jan-25

80.08%

93.92%

-14.74%

-13.84%

67.07%

19.40%

75.07%

6.67%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Jan-25

67.32%

83.29%

-19.17%

-15.97%

87.75%

-23.28%

45.35%

48.45%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Jan-25

66.27%

76.11%

-12.93%

-9.84%

58.76%

12.78%

41.59%

59.34%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Jan-25

88.71%

90.23%

-1.68%

-1.52%

74.63%

18.87%

39.50%

124.58%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Jan-25

205.19%

221.83%

-7.50%

-16.64%

271.66%

-24.47%

359.64%

-42.95%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Jan-25

139.03%

126.82%

9.63%

12.21%

126.08%

10.27%

427.21%

-67.46%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/3/24

12/2/24

% Change

Change

11/4/24

% Change

12/4/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Jan-25

EUR 48.46

EUR 48.53

-0.16%

-EUR 0.08

EUR 40.76

18.87%

EUR 45.64

6.18%

 

 

NBP

Jan-25

GBP 121.16

GBP 121.14

0.01%

GBP 0.02

GBP 104.61

15.82%

GBP 120.54

0.52%

 

 

German Base

Jan-25

EUR 115.98

EUR 117.00

-0.87%

-EUR 1.02

EUR 99.88

16.11%

EUR 122.73

-5.50%

 

 

UK Base

Jan-25

GBP 103.00

GBP 101.20

1.77%

GBP 1.80

GBP 89.60

14.96%

GBP 106.66

-3.44%

 

 

French Base

Jan-25

EUR 106.07

EUR 106.15

-0.07%

-EUR 0.08

EUR 93.36

13.61%

EUR 137.61

-22.92%

 

 

Italian Base

Jan-25

EUR 138.25

EUR 139.06

-0.58%

-EUR 0.80

EUR 120.95

14.30%

EUR 136.20

1.51%

 

 

JKM LNG

Jan-25

$15.08

$15.17

-0.58%

-$0.09

$13.50

11.72%

$16.86

-10.58%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/3/24

12/2/24

% Change

Change

11/4/24

% Change

12/4/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Jan-25

$48.46

$48.53

-0.16%

-$0.08

$40.76

18.87%

$45.64

6.18%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Jan-25

$121.16

$121.14

0.01%

$0.02

$104.61

15.82%

$120.54

0.52%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Jan-25

$115.98

$117.00

-0.87%

-$1.02

$99.88

16.11%

$122.73

-5.50%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Jan-25

$103.00

$101.20

1.77%

$1.80

$89.60

14.96%

$106.66

-3.44%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Jan-25

$106.07

$106.15

-0.07%

-$0.08

$93.36

13.61%

$137.61

-22.92%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Jan-25

$138.25

$139.06

-0.58%

-$0.80

$120.95

14.30%

$136.20

1.51%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Jan-25

$15.08

$15.17

-0.58%

-$0.09

$13.50

11.72%

$16.86

-10.58%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

11/30/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

570

153

20

37.00%

3.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

772

116

74

18.00%

11.00%

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

782

73

118

10.00%

18.00%

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

998

71

-59

8.00%

-6.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

7

-3

2

2,162

230

132

12.00%

7.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

-1

0

1,827

282

196

18.00%

12.00%

 

 

W S Central

4

0

4

2,844

404

-89

17.00%

-3.00%

 

 

Mountain

0

0

0

1,428

185

175

15.00%

14.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

-1

0

906

203

211

29.00%

30.00%

 

 

United States

2

0

1

1,397

187

97

15.00%

7.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11/30/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

192

-6

-22

1,163

-221

-66

-16.00%

-5.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

178

-5

-24

968

-225

-106

-19.00%

-10.00%

 

 

E N Central

216

7

-31

1,028

-309

-200

-23.00%

-16.00%

 

 

W N Central

253

18

-6

1,096

-351

-160

-24.00%

-13.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

96

-2

-29

396

-132

-97

-25.00%

-20.00%

 

 

E S Central

134

6

-25

467

-228

-136

-33.00%

-23.00%

 

 

W S Central

81

-9

-31

225

-160

-165

-42.00%

-42.00%

 

 

Mountain

178

-7

-27

1,037

-182

6

-15.00%

1.00%

 

 

Pacific

112

1

-12

635

-55

71

-8.00%

13.00%

 

 

United States

151

0

-24

729

-193

-95

-21.00%

-12.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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