Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Dec-08-2023

Dec 8, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 7:54 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.600

$2.585

0.58%

$0.015

24,243

 

 

WTI

$70.86

$69.34

2.19%

$1.52

86,668

 

 

Brent

$75.71

$74.05

2.24%

$1.66

6,076

 

 

ULSD

$2.607

$2.549

2.25%

$0.057

5,453

 

 

RBOB

$2.051

$2.001

2.49%

$0.050

4,757

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.59

$4.46

2.91%

$0.13

Feb-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$22.54

$21.90

2.93%

$0.64

Jan-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$50.83

$52.85

-3.83%

-$2.03

Jan-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

12/01/23

625

3

-159

12/02/22

 

 

Canada

12/01/23

192

-5

-3

12/02/22

 

 

International

Nov

978

16

68

Nov

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 11/28/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

96,067

95,706

95,712

-6

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

86,636

86,018

86,066

-48

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

412,900

389,640

401,546

-11,906

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

159,363

138,914

119,328

19,586

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

146,298

135,485

138,582

-3,097

 

 

NYM Ethanol

36,693

36,126

35,787

339

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

157,028

156,518

156,643

-125

 

 

RBOB

344,150

321,372

329,994

-8,622

 

 

HSC Basis

702,865

696,883

694,391

2,492

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

12/07/18

 

 

 

12/1/23

11/24/23

Net Change

% Change

12/2/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

876

915

-39

-4.26%

834

5.04%

838

4.51%

 

 

Midwest

1,082

1,111

-29

-2.61%

1,028

5.25%

1,008

7.34%

 

 

Mountain

245

252

-7

-2.78%

193

26.94%

197

24.49%

 

 

Pacific

289

298

-9

-3.02%

217

33.18%

262

10.39%

 

 

South

1,228

1,260

-32

-2.54%

1,191

3.11%

1,144

7.31%

 

 

    Salt

334

343

-9

-2.62%

327

2.14%

322

3.86%

 

 

    Non_Salt

894

917

-23

-2.51%

864

3.47%

823

8.68%

 

 

Total

3,719

3,836

-117

-3.05%

3,462

7.42%

3,449

7.82%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/7/23

12/6/23

% Change

Change

11/8/23

% Change

12/8/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Jan-24

$56.39

$58.38

-3.41%

-$1.99

$63.92

-11.78%

$110.00

-48.73%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Jan-24

$67.03

$68.78

-2.53%

-$1.74

$77.31

-13.30%

$81.01

-17.26%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Jan-24

$60.38

$57.91

4.27%

$2.47

$85.46

-29.34%

$95.46

-36.75%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Jan-24

$49.48

$51.28

-3.51%

-$1.80

$59.12

-16.31%

$98.18

-49.61%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Jan-24

$108.82

$107.58

1.15%

$1.24

$123.89

-12.17%

$220.42

-50.63%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Jan-24

$112.82

$117.40

-3.90%

-$4.57

$132.74

-15.01%

$137.31

-17.83%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Jan-24

$77.21

$78.14

-1.19%

-$0.93

$90.65

-14.82%

$162.00

-52.34%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/7/23

12/6/23

% Change

Change

11/8/23

% Change

12/8/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Jan-24

$2.585

$2.569

0.62%

$0.02

$3.39

-23.72%

$5.83

-55.63%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Jan-24

$0.065

$0.207

-68.30%

-$0.14

$0.33

-80.32%

$0.03

137.32%

 

 

Chicago

Jan-24

$0.514

$0.576

12.05%

-$0.06

$0.81

-36.96%

$0.79

-35.33%

 

 

Waha

Jan-24

-$0.161

-$0.124

-29.66%

-$0.04

$0.10

-254.21%

-$0.42

-61.65%

 

 

Algonquin

Jan-24

$9.707

$10.831

-10.38%

-$1.12

$10.00

-2.92%

$22.03

-55.95%

 

 

Aeco

Jan-24

-$0.874

-$0.823

6.27%

-$0.05

-$1.37

-36.20%

-$1.72

-49.16%

 

 

Socal

Jan-24

$2.044

$2.028

0.78%

$0.02

$4.39

-53.43%

$1.95

4.89%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/7/23

12/6/23

% Change

Change

11/8/23

% Change

12/8/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Jan-24

$0.695

$0.678

2.49%

$0.02

$0.62

11.29%

$0.78

-10.58%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Jan-24

$0.700

$0.678

3.20%

$0.02

$0.62

11.93%

$0.79

-11.31%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Jan-24

$0.204

$0.202

1.21%

$0.00

$0.24

-16.42%

$0.31

-34.38%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Jan-24

$1.383

$1.433

-3.49%

-$0.05

$1.44

-3.81%

$1.32

4.50%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Jan-24

$0.973

$0.929

4.66%

$0.04

$0.83

16.82%

$0.85

14.09%

 

 

Far East Propane

Jan-24

$6.525

$6.364

2.53%

$0.16

$6.93

-5.78%

$5.50

18.67%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Jan-24

$5.932

$5.881

0.86%

$0.05

$6.00

-1.09%

$5.08

16.81%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/7/23

12/6/23

% Change

Change

11/8/23

% Change

12/8/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Jan-24

$69.34

$69.38

-0.06%

-$0.04

$75.31

-7.93%

$71.10

-2.48%

 

 

Brent

Jan-24

$73.97

$74.24

-0.37%

-$0.27

$79.54

-7.01%

$75.64

-2.21%

 

 

WCS

Jan-24

-$22.61

-$22.77

-0.71%

$0.16

-$30.33

-25.46%

-$21.93

3.07%

 

 

LLS

Jan-24

$72.18

$72.39

-0.29%

-$0.21

$77.04

-6.31%

$73.11

-1.27%

 

 

Mars

Jan-24

$69.99

$70.08

-0.14%

-$0.10

$73.88

-5.26%

$68.72

1.85%

 

 

Sour

Jan-24

$70.08

$70.09

-0.03%

-$0.02

$74.49

-5.92%

$68.10

2.90%

 

 

ESPO

Jan-24

$71.97

$72.24

-0.38%

-$0.27

$77.54

-7.19%

$72.16

-0.27%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/7/23

12/6/23

% Change

Change

11/8/23

% Change

12/8/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Jan-24

$2.56

$2.58

-0.89%

-$0.02

$2.70

-5.37%

$2.63

-2.92%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Jan-24

$2.01

$2.11

-4.97%

-$0.11

$2.12

-5.19%

$2.00

0.30%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Jan-24

$1.91

$2.01

-5.21%

-$0.10

$2.02

-5.45%

$1.90

0.32%

 

 

GC Jet

Jan-24

$2.29

$2.33

-1.51%

-$0.04

$2.47

-7.32%

$2.38

-3.58%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Jan-24

$1.66

$1.68

-1.19%

-$0.02

$1.73

-3.92%

$1.93

-13.82%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Jan-24

$693.03

$698.61

-0.80%

-$5.59

$751.83

-7.82%

$718.38

-3.53%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Jan-24

$98.79

$99.24

-0.45%

-$0.45

$104.17

-5.16%

$89.52

10.35%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/7/23

12/6/23

% Change

Change

11/8/23

% Change

12/8/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Jan-24

63.65%

66.73%

-4.62%

-3.08%

69.44%

-8.34%

61.04%

4.28%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Jan-24

88.42%

77.22%

14.50%

11.20%

83.64%

5.71%

71.14%

24.29%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Jan-24

65.73%

65.08%

1.00%

0.65%

75.20%

-12.59%

75.81%

-13.30%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Jan-24

59.73%

57.72%

3.48%

2.01%

62.69%

-4.72%

57.27%

4.30%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Jan-24

87.72%

89.54%

-2.03%

-1.82%

77.53%

13.14%

72.34%

21.26%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Jan-24

175.53%

130.33%

34.68%

45.20%

140.62%

24.83%

61.08%

187.38%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Jan-24

518.13%

312.70%

65.70%

205.43%

327.97%

57.98%

97.32%

432.40%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/7/23

12/6/23

% Change

Change

11/8/23

% Change

12/8/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Jan-24

EUR 40.34

EUR 39.24

2.80%

EUR 1.10

EUR 47.06

-14.28%

EUR 137.87

-70.74%

 

 

NBP

Jan-24

GBP 101.05

GBP 98.16

2.94%

GBP 2.88

GBP 123.24

-18.01%

GBP 358.51

-71.82%

 

 

German Base

Jan-24

EUR 99.53

EUR 96.44

3.20%

EUR 3.09

EUR 111.89

-11.05%

EUR 442.47

-77.51%

 

 

UK Base

Jan-24

GBP 96.16

GBP 94.17

2.11%

GBP 1.99

GBP 115.28

-16.58%

GBP 343.97

-72.04%

 

 

French Base

Jan-24

EUR 99.02

EUR 96.47

2.65%

EUR 2.56

EUR 121.79

-18.69%

EUR 571.45

-82.67%

 

 

Italian Base

Jan-24

EUR 118.38

EUR 114.79

3.13%

EUR 3.59

EUR 137.75

-14.06%

EUR 399.62

-70.38%

 

 

JKM LNG

Jan-24

$16.33

$15.74

3.73%

$0.59

$16.25

0.49%

$41.01

-60.18%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/7/23

12/6/23

% Change

Change

11/8/23

% Change

12/8/22

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Jan-24

$40.34

$39.24

2.80%

$1.10

$47.06

-14.28%

$137.87

-70.74%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Jan-24

$101.05

$98.16

2.94%

$2.88

$123.24

-18.01%

$358.51

-71.82%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Jan-24

$99.53

$96.44

3.20%

$3.09

$111.89

-11.05%

$442.47

-77.51%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Jan-24

$96.16

$94.17

2.11%

$1.99

$115.28

-16.58%

$343.97

-72.04%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Jan-24

$99.02

$96.47

2.65%

$2.56

$121.79

-18.69%

$571.45

-82.67%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Jan-24

$118.38

$114.79

3.13%

$3.59

$137.75

-14.06%

$399.62

-70.38%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Jan-24

$16.33

$15.74

3.73%

$0.59

$16.25

0.49%

$41.01

-60.18%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

12/02/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

-33

551

134

-135

32.00%

-20.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0 –

122

698

42

-280

6.00%

-29.00%

 

 

E N Central

0

0

-23

664

-45

-185

-6.00%

-22.00%

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

1,057

130

-34

14.00%

-3.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

6

-4

-47

2,032

98

-154

5.00%

-7.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

-1

0

1,632

87

-90

6.00%

-5.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

-4

-9

2,934

494

36

20.00%

1.00%

 

 

Mountain

0

0

-22

1,253

10

-153

1.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

-1

-1

695

-8

-281

-1.00%

-29.00%

 

 

United States

1

-1

-34

1,301

91

-162

8.00%

-11.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

12/02/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

202

-1

24

1,278

-166

62

-11.00%

5.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

199

12

27

1,125

-123

19

-10.00%

2.00%

 

 

E N Central

233

19

41

1,282

-118

-51

-8.00%

-4.00%

 

 

W N Central

247

6

20

1,322

-196

-132

-13.00%

-9.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

121

20

30

518

-40

-38

-7.00%

-7.00%

 

 

E S Central

148

16

33

629

-105

-147

-14.00%

-19.00%

 

 

W S Central

101

7

23

408

-5

-70

-1.00%

-15.00%

 

 

Mountain

204

15

21

1,091

-183

-141

-14.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Pacific

124

10

7

600

-123

-73

-17.00%

-11.00%

 

 

United States

168

13

26

865

-103

-56

-11.00%

-6.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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