Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Dec-09-2024

Dec 9, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 9:23 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$3.178

$3.076

3.32%

$0.102

103,969

 

 

WTI

$68.30

$67.20

1.64%

$1.10

93,490

 

 

Brent

$72.12

$71.12

1.41%

$1.00

9,701

 

 

ULSD

$2.178

$2.133

2.14%

$0.046

13,021

 

 

RBOB

$1.943

$1.906

1.94%

$0.037

12,279

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.10

$4.14

-0.97%

-$0.04

Feb-25

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$17.23

$16.61

3.70%

$0.61

Jan-25

 

 

PJM West Spark

$52.92

$53.23

-0.57%

-$0.30

Jan-25

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

12/06/24

589

7

-37

12/09/23

 

 

Canada

12/06/24

194

-11

0

12/09/23

 

 

International

Nov

919

-31

-59

Nov

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 11/26/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

89,426

89,006

88,806

200

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

87,090

86,898

85,996

902

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

337,802

326,010

324,080

1,930

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

149,662

124,081

121,120

2,961

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

160,993

150,890

153,072

-2,182

 

 

NYM Ethanol

35,192

34,357

34,686

-329

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

149,021

147,987

148,657

-670

 

 

RBOB

354,281

332,911

336,181

-3,270

 

 

HSC Basis

858,742

851,057

847,948

3,109

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$83.00

$84.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.30

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

12.00

12.90

13.30

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

11/29/19

 

 

 

11/29/24

11/22/24

Net Change

% Change

12/1/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

914

929

-15

-1.61%

876

4.34%

872

4.84%

 

 

Midwest

1,115

1,134

-19

-1.68%

1,082

3.05%

1,053

5.91%

 

 

Mountain

289

292

-3

-1.03%

245

17.96%

215

34.29%

 

 

Pacific

310

310

0

0.00%

289

7.27%

274

13.14%

 

 

South

1,310

1,301

9

0.69%

1,228

6.68%

1,212

8.12%

 

 

    Salt

362

353

9

2.55%

334

8.38%

333

8.64%

 

 

    Non_Salt

948

948

0

0.00%

894

6.04%

878

7.95%

 

 

Total

3,937

3,967

-30

-0.76%

3,719

5.86%

3,625

8.61%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/6/24

12/5/24

% Change

Change

11/7/24

% Change

12/7/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Jan-25

$59.67

$59.81

-0.23%

-$0.14

$57.24

4.24%

$63.87

-6.58%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Jan-25

$58.33

$58.05

0.48%

$0.28

$53.31

9.41%

$82.39

-29.21%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Jan-25

$46.67

$47.00

-0.69%

-$0.33

$53.78

-13.22%

$85.02

-45.10%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Jan-25

$52.52

$52.57

-0.08%

-$0.04

$50.50

4.01%

$57.98

-9.41%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Jan-25

$110.02

$109.97

0.04%

$0.04

$92.82

18.53%

$131.90

-16.59%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Jan-25

$72.05

$73.00

-1.30%

-$0.95

$85.27

-15.50%

$102.01

-29.37%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Jan-25

$86.43

$88.72

-2.58%

-$2.29

$78.74

9.76%

$94.62

-8.65%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/6/24

12/5/24

% Change

Change

11/7/24

% Change

12/7/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Jan-25

$3.076

$3.079

-0.10%

$0.00

$2.95

4.34%

$3.93

-21.65%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Jan-25

-$0.126

-$0.167

-24.55%

$0.04

-$0.20

-37.38%

$0.23

-155.24%

 

 

Chicago

Jan-25

$0.664

$0.655

-1.46%

$0.01

$0.73

-9.49%

$0.81

-17.53%

 

 

Waha

Jan-25

-$0.548

-$0.596

-8.02%

$0.05

-$0.73

-25.06%

-$0.08

616.60%

 

 

Algonquin

Jan-25

$8.623

$8.332

3.49%

$0.29

$7.72

11.71%

$10.56

-18.38%

 

 

Aeco

Jan-25

-$1.607

-$1.625

-1.10%

$0.02

-$1.60

0.72%

-$1.32

21.47%

 

 

Socal

Jan-25

$0.906

$0.956

-5.25%

-$0.05

$1.89

-52.06%

$2.87

-68.38%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/6/24

12/5/24

% Change

Change

11/7/24

% Change

12/7/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Jan-25

$0.778

$0.783

-0.66%

-$0.01

$0.81

-4.40%

$0.72

7.49%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Jan-25

$0.778

$0.790

-1.58%

-$0.01

$0.82

-4.73%

$0.72

7.46%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Jan-25

$0.203

$0.213

-4.71%

-$0.01

$0.19

8.04%

$0.27

-23.76%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Jan-25

$1.430

$1.447

-1.17%

-$0.02

$1.55

-7.64%

$1.34

6.71%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Jan-25

$1.065

$1.068

-0.25%

$0.00

$1.09

-1.99%

$0.88

20.73%

 

 

Far East Propane

Jan-25

$6.070

$6.104

-0.56%

-$0.03

$6.30

-3.64%

$5.59

8.50%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Jan-25

$6.230

$6.249

-0.30%

-$0.02

$6.23

0.01%

$5.38

15.72%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/6/24

12/5/24

% Change

Change

11/7/24

% Change

12/7/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Jan-25

$67.20

$68.30

-1.64%

-$1.10

$71.96

-6.61%

$68.95

-2.54%

 

 

Brent

Jan-25

$71.28

$72.29

-1.42%

-$1.01

$75.63

-5.76%

$73.36

-2.84%

 

 

WCS

Jan-25

-$12.15

-$12.05

0.76%

-$0.09

-$12.67

-4.14%

-$15.86

-23.41%

 

 

LLS

Jan-25

$70.12

$70.30

-0.26%

-$0.18

$73.25

-4.28%

$70.65

-0.76%

 

 

Mars

Jan-25

$67.53

$67.82

-0.43%

-$0.29

$70.05

-3.59%

$67.96

-0.62%

 

 

Sour

Jan-25

$68.46

$68.63

-0.24%

-$0.17

$71.71

-4.52%

$69.11

-0.94%

 

 

ESPO

Jan-25

$69.28

$70.29

-1.47%

-$1.01

$73.63

-5.91%

$71.36

-2.92%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/6/24

12/5/24

% Change

Change

11/7/24

% Change

12/7/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Jan-25

$2.13

$2.16

-1.48%

-$0.03

$2.29

-6.94%

$2.42

-11.79%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Jan-25

$1.90

$1.94

-1.80%

-$0.04

$2.03

-6.02%

$1.97

-3.50%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Jan-25

$1.80

$1.84

-1.90%

-$0.04

$1.93

-6.33%

$1.87

-3.68%

 

 

GC Jet

Jan-25

$1.99

$2.02

-1.34%

-$0.03

$2.12

-5.82%

$2.21

-9.95%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Jan-25

$1.60

$1.55

2.57%

$0.04

$1.55

3.04%

$1.63

-2.21%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Jan-25

$603.35

$614.76

-1.86%

-$11.40

$631.26

-4.42%

$665.46

-9.33%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Jan-25

$84.46

$86.20

-2.03%

-$1.75

$88.86

-4.95%

$93.85

-10.01%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/6/24

12/5/24

% Change

Change

11/7/24

% Change

12/7/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Jan-25

64.30%

63.00%

2.06%

1.30%

63.17%

1.79%

45.62%

40.95%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Jan-25

75.34%

73.05%

3.13%

2.29%

66.15%

13.89%

68.41%

10.13%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Jan-25

71.58%

57.24%

25.05%

14.34%

82.06%

-12.77%

48.25%

48.35%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Jan-25

59.93%

58.41%

2.60%

1.52%

60.73%

-1.32%

42.39%

41.38%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Jan-25

93.30%

93.16%

0.15%

0.14%

78.13%

19.42%

43.73%

113.35%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Jan-25

247.90%

239.04%

3.71%

8.86%

275.78%

-10.11%

919.96%

-73.05%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Jan-25

118.35%

160.44%

-26.23%

-42.09%

128.17%

-7.66%

574.38%

-79.40%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/6/24

12/5/24

% Change

Change

11/7/24

% Change

12/7/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Jan-25

EUR 46.55

EUR 46.48

0.16%

EUR 0.07

EUR 41.89

11.12%

EUR 44.90

3.67%

 

 

NBP

Jan-25

GBP 115.95

GBP 115.86

0.07%

GBP 0.09

GBP 106.28

9.10%

GBP 119.89

-3.28%

 

 

German Base

Jan-25

EUR 111.24

EUR 112.44

-1.07%

-EUR 1.20

EUR 103.53

7.45%

EUR 121.41

-8.38%

 

 

UK Base

Jan-25

GBP 98.40

GBP 97.75

0.67%

GBP 0.65

GBP 92.25

6.67%

GBP 102.72

-4.20%

 

 

French Base

Jan-25

EUR 100.21

EUR 101.46

-1.23%

-EUR 1.25

EUR 97.97

2.28%

EUR 133.63

-25.01%

 

 

Italian Base

Jan-25

EUR 133.53

EUR 133.29

0.18%

EUR 0.24

EUR 121.41

9.98%

EUR 131.38

1.64%

 

 

JKM LNG

Jan-25

$15.05

$14.76

1.96%

$0.29

$13.72

9.70%

$15.18

-0.85%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/6/24

12/5/24

% Change

Change

11/7/24

% Change

12/7/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Jan-25

$46.55

$46.48

0.16%

$0.07

$41.89

11.12%

$44.90

3.67%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Jan-25

$115.95

$115.86

0.07%

$0.09

$106.28

9.10%

$119.89

-3.28%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Jan-25

$111.24

$112.44

-1.07%

-$1.20

$103.53

7.45%

$121.41

-8.38%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Jan-25

$98.40

$97.75

0.67%

$0.65

$92.25

6.67%

$102.72

-4.20%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Jan-25

$100.21

$101.46

-1.23%

-$1.25

$97.97

2.28%

$133.63

-25.01%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Jan-25

$133.53

$133.29

0.18%

$0.24

$121.41

9.98%

$131.38

1.64%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Jan-25

$15.05

$14.76

1.96%

$0.29

$13.72

9.70%

$15.18

-0.85%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

12/07/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

570

153

20

37.00%

3.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

772

116

74

18.00%

11.00%

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

782

73

118

10.00%

18.00%

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

998

71

-59

8.00%

-6.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

1

-8

-7

2,163

221

125

11.00%

6.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

-1

0

1,827

281

196

18.00%

12.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

-3

-1

2,844

401

-90

16.00%

-3.00%

 

 

Mountain

0

0

0

1,428

185

175

15.00%

14.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

-1

0

906

202

211

29.00%

30.00%

 

 

United States

0

-2

-1

1,397

185

95

15.00%

7.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

12/07/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

253

38

50

1,416

-183

-16

-11.00%

-1.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

233

34

47

1,201

-191

-59

-14.00%

-5.00%

 

 

E N Central

276

48

84

1,304

-261

-116

-17.00%

-8.00%

 

 

W N Central

276

22

67

1,372

-329

-93

-19.00%

-6.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

161

53

69

557

-79

-28

-12.00%

-5.00%

 

 

E S Central

211

70

97

678

-158

-40

-19.00%

-6.00%

 

 

W S Central

118

17

40

342

-144

-125

-30.00%

-27.00%

 

 

Mountain

162

-35

-7

1,199

-217

-1

-15.00%

0.00%

 

 

Pacific

88

-31

-10

724

-85

61

-11.00%

9.00%

 

 

United States

189

24

49

919

-168

-47

-15.00%

-5.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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