Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Dec-11-2023

Dec 11, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:57 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.300

$2.581

-10.89%

-$0.281

101,579

 

 

WTI

$71.06

$71.23

-0.24%

-$0.17

92,839

 

 

Brent

$75.70

$75.84

-0.18%

-$0.14

7,215

 

 

ULSD

$2.603

$2.581

0.86%

$0.022

11,464

 

 

RBOB

$2.043

$2.050

-0.33%

-$0.007

8,952

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.39

$4.40

-0.23%

-$0.01

Feb-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$22.27

$21.88

1.76%

$0.38

Jan-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$49.73

$50.87

-2.24%

-$1.14

Jan-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

12/08/23

626

1

-154

12/09/22

 

 

Canada

12/08/23

194

2

-8

12/09/22

 

 

International

Nov

978

16

68

Nov

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 12/5/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

89,379

88,935

89,079

-144

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

81,904

81,433

81,616

-183

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

396,784

374,097

386,502

-12,405

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

293,019

246,316

215,458

30,858

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

124,959

117,282

119,159

-1,877

 

 

NYM Ethanol

30,766

29,997

30,130

-133

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

137,123

136,638

136,706

-68

 

 

RBOB

341,560

318,290

327,181

-8,891

 

 

HSC Basis

655,145

649,729

646,534

3,195

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

12/07/18

 

 

 

12/1/23

11/24/23

Net Change

% Change

12/2/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

876

915

-39

-4.26%

834

5.04%

838

4.51%

 

 

Midwest

1,082

1,111

-29

-2.61%

1,028

5.25%

1,008

7.34%

 

 

Mountain

245

252

-7

-2.78%

193

26.94%

197

24.49%

 

 

Pacific

289

298

-9

-3.02%

217

33.18%

262

10.39%

 

 

South

1,228

1,260

-32

-2.54%

1,191

3.11%

1,144

7.31%

 

 

    Salt

334

343

-9

-2.62%

327

2.14%

322

3.86%

 

 

    Non_Salt

894

917

-23

-2.51%

864

3.47%

823

8.68%

 

 

Total

3,719

3,836

-117

-3.05%

3,462

7.42%

3,449

7.82%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/8/23

12/7/23

% Change

Change

11/9/23

% Change

12/9/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Jan-24

$54.66

$56.39

-3.07%

-$1.73

$64.15

-14.79%

$110.07

-50.34%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Jan-24

$62.01

$67.03

-7.49%

-$5.02

$79.19

-21.69%

$82.21

-24.57%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Jan-24

$57.69

$60.38

-4.46%

-$2.69

$84.32

-31.59%

$105.26

-45.20%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Jan-24

$47.76

$49.48

-3.47%

-$1.72

$58.72

-18.67%

$98.43

-51.48%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Jan-24

$101.23

$108.82

-6.97%

-$7.59

$122.16

-17.13%

$231.39

-56.25%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Jan-24

$104.49

$112.82

-7.39%

-$8.34

$136.17

-23.27%

$145.25

-28.06%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Jan-24

$74.61

$77.21

-3.37%

-$2.60

$89.78

-16.90%

$169.10

-55.88%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/8/23

12/7/23

% Change

Change

11/9/23

% Change

12/9/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Jan-24

$2.581

$2.585

-0.15%

$0.00

$3.33

-22.56%

$5.91

-56.35%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Jan-24

$0.036

$0.065

-44.89%

-$0.03

$0.34

-89.37%

$0.02

107.47%

 

 

Chicago

Jan-24

$0.437

$0.514

17.47%

-$0.08

$0.78

-44.15%

$0.83

-47.45%

 

 

Waha

Jan-24

-$0.208

-$0.161

-28.95%

-$0.05

$0.13

-257.70%

-$0.41

-49.27%

 

 

Algonquin

Jan-24

$9.537

$9.707

-1.75%

-$0.17

$9.90

-3.69%

$24.42

-60.94%

 

 

Aeco

Jan-24

-$0.953

-$0.874

9.01%

-$0.08

-$1.25

-23.58%

-$1.73

-44.86%

 

 

Socal

Jan-24

$1.885

$2.044

-7.79%

-$0.16

$4.59

-58.97%

$2.81

-33.00%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/8/23

12/7/23

% Change

Change

11/9/23

% Change

12/9/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Jan-24

$0.693

$0.695

-0.31%

$0.00

$0.63

9.92%

$0.78

-10.84%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Jan-24

$0.689

$0.700

-1.52%

-$0.01

$0.63

9.17%

$0.78

-11.74%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Jan-24

$0.196

$0.204

-3.82%

-$0.01

$0.24

-18.64%

$0.32

-38.37%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Jan-24

$1.420

$1.383

2.71%

$0.04

$1.46

-2.69%

$1.38

3.06%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Jan-24

$0.994

$0.973

2.23%

$0.02

$0.84

18.05%

$0.88

12.76%

 

 

Far East Propane

Jan-24

$6.709

$6.525

2.82%

$0.18

$7.10

-5.50%

$5.50

22.05%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Jan-24

$6.076

$5.932

2.43%

$0.14

$6.09

-0.20%

$5.02

21.01%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/8/23

12/7/23

% Change

Change

11/9/23

% Change

12/9/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Feb-24

$71.44

$69.59

2.59%

$1.85

$75.57

-5.47%

$70.90

0.76%

 

 

Brent

Feb-24

$75.84

$74.05

2.36%

$1.79

$79.84

-5.01%

$75.49

0.46%

 

 

WCS

Feb-24

-$19.64

-$20.49

-4.36%

$0.86

-$24.26

-19.08%

-$25.09

-21.75%

 

 

LLS

Feb-24

$73.91

$72.25

2.24%

$1.66

$78.73

-6.12%

$71.99

2.67%

 

 

Mars

Feb-24

$71.25

$70.00

1.75%

$1.25

$74.62

-4.52%

$68.00

4.79%

 

 

Sour

Feb-24

$71.40

$70.06

1.88%

$1.34

$76.20

-6.30%

$68.28

4.56%

 

 

ESPO

Feb-24

$73.84

$72.05

2.42%

$1.79

$77.84

-5.14%

$72.86

1.35%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/8/23

12/7/23

% Change

Change

11/9/23

% Change

12/9/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Jan-24

$2.58

$2.56

1.02%

$0.03

$2.67

-3.26%

$2.60

-0.73%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Jan-24

$2.05

$2.01

2.04%

$0.04

$2.14

-4.03%

$2.00

2.65%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Jan-24

$1.95

$1.91

2.15%

$0.04

$2.04

-4.22%

$1.90

2.79%

 

 

GC Jet

Jan-24

$2.32

$2.29

1.44%

$0.03

$2.46

-5.61%

$2.30

1.00%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Jan-24

$1.67

$1.66

0.30%

$0.00

$1.73

-3.47%

$1.95

-14.27%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Jan-24

$705.48

$693.03

1.80%

$12.46

$725.34

-2.74%

$701.12

0.62%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Jan-24

$98.19

$98.79

-0.60%

-$0.59

$100.94

-2.72%

$93.78

4.71%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/8/23

12/7/23

% Change

Change

11/9/23

% Change

12/9/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Jan-24

67.02%

63.65%

5.29%

3.37%

72.83%

-7.98%

58.14%

15.27%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Jan-24

87.91%

88.42%

-0.58%

-0.51%

90.28%

-2.63%

78.14%

12.50%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Jan-24

67.26%

65.73%

2.33%

1.53%

77.71%

-13.45%

70.91%

-5.15%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Jan-24

61.06%

59.73%

2.23%

1.33%

67.00%

-8.87%

54.74%

11.55%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Jan-24

88.90%

87.72%

1.35%

1.18%

77.40%

14.86%

70.70%

25.74%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Jan-24

186.31%

175.53%

6.14%

10.78%

99.30%

87.62%

68.32%

172.70%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Jan-24

536.62%

518.13%

3.57%

18.49%

262.65%

104.31%

120.32%

345.99%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/8/23

12/7/23

% Change

Change

11/9/23

% Change

12/9/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Jan-24

EUR 38.83

EUR 40.34

-3.73%

-EUR 1.51

EUR 50.02

-22.37%

EUR 138.00

-71.86%

 

 

NBP

Jan-24

GBP 97.76

GBP 101.05

-3.26%

-GBP 3.29

GBP 130.19

-24.91%

GBP 358.77

-72.75%

 

 

German Base

Jan-24

EUR 94.32

EUR 99.53

-5.23%

-EUR 5.21

EUR 117.76

-19.91%

EUR 439.60

-78.54%

 

 

UK Base

Jan-24

GBP 88.55

GBP 96.16

-7.91%

-GBP 7.61

GBP 116.96

-24.29%

GBP 332.65

-73.38%

 

 

French Base

Jan-24

EUR 93.68

EUR 99.02

-5.39%

-EUR 5.34

EUR 128.89

-27.31%

EUR 574.07

-83.68%

 

 

Italian Base

Jan-24

EUR 115.40

EUR 118.38

-2.52%

-EUR 2.98

EUR 141.30

-18.33%

EUR 389.07

-70.34%

 

 

JKM LNG

Jan-24

$15.00

$16.33

-8.18%

-$1.34

$16.93

-11.45%

$39.19

-61.73%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/8/23

12/7/23

% Change

Change

11/9/23

% Change

12/9/22

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Jan-24

$38.83

$40.34

-3.73%

-$1.51

$50.02

-22.37%

$138.00

-71.86%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Jan-24

$97.76

$101.05

-3.26%

-$3.29

$130.19

-24.91%

$358.77

-72.75%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Jan-24

$94.32

$99.53

-5.23%

-$5.21

$117.76

-19.91%

$439.60

-78.54%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Jan-24

$88.55

$96.16

-7.91%

-$7.61

$116.96

-24.29%

$332.65

-73.38%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Jan-24

$93.68

$99.02

-5.39%

-$5.34

$128.89

-27.31%

$574.07

-83.68%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Jan-24

$115.40

$118.38

-2.52%

-$2.98

$141.30

-18.33%

$389.07

-70.34%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Jan-24

$15.00

$16.33

-8.18%

-$1.34

$16.93

-11.45%

$39.19

-61.73%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

12/09/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

551

134

-135

32.00%

-20.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

698

42

-280

6.00%

-29.00%

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

664

-45

-185

-6.00%

-22.00%

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

1,057

130

-34

14.00%

-3.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

7

-2

4

2,039

96

-151

5.00%

-7.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

-1

-4

1,632

87

-93

6.00%

-5.00%

 

 

W S Central

3

0

-13

2,936

493

23

20.00%

1.00%

 

 

Mountain

0

0

0

1,253

10

-153

1.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

-1

0

695

-9

-281

-1.00%

-29.00%

 

 

United States

2

0

-1

1,302

90

-163

7.00%

-11.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

12/09/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

217

-4

26

1,495

-169

88

-10.00%

6.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

187

-17

-38

1,312

-140

-19

-10.00%

-1.00%

 

 

E N Central

179

-54

-44

1,461

-172

-96

-11.00%

-6.00%

 

 

W N Central

192

-67

-71

1,514

-263

-203

-15.00%

-12.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

94

-18

-9

612

-57

-47

-9.00%

-7.00%

 

 

E S Central

116

-29

35

746

-133

-112

-15.00%

-13.00%

 

 

W S Central

72

-32

23

480

-37

-47

-7.00%

-9.00%

 

 

Mountain

167

-33

-35

1,258

-216

-175

-15.00%

-12.00%

 

 

Pacific

98

-23

-52

698

-146

-124

-17.00%

-15.00%

 

 

United States

138

-30

-23

1,003

-133

-79

-12.00%

-7.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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