Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Dec-19-2024

Dec 19, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:54 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$3.483

$3.374

3.23%

$0.109

48,729

 

 

WTI

$71.22

$70.58

0.91%

$0.64

5,112

 

 

Brent

$73.79

$73.39

0.55%

$0.40

9,122

 

 

ULSD

$2.265

$2.255

0.43%

$0.010

3,248

 

 

RBOB

$1.949

$1.943

0.31%

$0.006

3,763

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$3.32

$3.37

-1.48%

-$0.05

Feb-25

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$16.25

$16.29

-0.23%

-$0.04

Jan-25

 

 

PJM West Spark

$55.15

$55.25

-0.18%

-$0.10

Jan-25

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

12/13/24

589

0

-34

12/16/23

 

 

Canada

12/13/24

191

-3

6

12/16/23

 

 

International

Nov

919

-31

-59

Nov

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 12/10/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

88,888

88,507

88,451

56

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

83,575

83,389

82,619

770

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

320,855

308,763

307,195

1,568

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

151,130

127,703

126,012

1,691

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

150,315

141,138

140,491

647

 

 

NYM Ethanol

30,093

29,265

29,640

-375

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

134,596

133,818

134,331

-513

 

 

RBOB

377,314

351,719

355,837

-4,118

 

 

HSC Basis

827,098

816,646

815,028

1,618

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$83.00

$84.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.30

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

12.00

12.90

13.30

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

12/06/19

 

 

 

12/6/24

11/29/24

Net Change

% Change

12/8/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

856

914

-58

-6.35%

857

-0.12%

849

0.82%

 

 

Midwest

1,055

1,115

-60

-5.38%

1,055

0.00%

1,022

3.21%

 

 

Mountain

282

289

-7

-2.42%

243

16.05%

209

35.06%

 

 

Pacific

302

310

-8

-2.58%

289

4.50%

267

13.11%

 

 

South

1,251

1,310

-59

-4.50%

1,219

2.63%

1,200

4.25%

 

 

    Salt

340

362

-22

-6.08%

336

1.19%

334

1.80%

 

 

    Non_Salt

911

948

-37

-3.90%

883

3.17%

866

5.22%

 

 

Total

3,747

3,937

-190

-4.83%

3,664

2.27%

3,547

5.63%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/18/24

12/17/24

% Change

Change

11/19/24

% Change

12/19/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Jan-25

$62.61

$62.46

0.23%

$0.15

$63.51

-1.42%

$62.84

-0.37%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Jan-25

$58.67

$57.11

2.74%

$1.56

$58.28

0.68%

$83.79

-29.98%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Jan-25

$48.98

$46.32

5.73%

$2.66

$48.64

0.70%

$87.29

-43.89%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Jan-25

$55.12

$55.55

-0.78%

-$0.44

$55.74

-1.13%

$57.63

-4.36%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Jan-25

$116.34

$109.92

5.84%

$6.42

$113.22

2.76%

$124.68

-6.69%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Jan-25

$70.72

$70.24

0.70%

$0.49

$79.00

-10.48%

$107.85

-34.42%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Jan-25

$89.58

$86.18

3.95%

$3.40

$90.12

-0.60%

$87.27

2.65%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/18/24

12/17/24

% Change

Change

11/19/24

% Change

12/19/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Jan-25

$3.374

$3.308

2.00%

$0.07

$3.23

4.52%

$3.70

-8.93%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Jan-25

-$0.067

-$0.076

-12.61%

$0.01

-$0.20

-66.60%

$0.21

-132.23%

 

 

Chicago

Jan-25

$0.633

$0.644

1.71%

-$0.01

$0.77

-18.04%

$0.85

-25.91%

 

 

Waha

Jan-25

-$0.467

-$0.479

-2.53%

$0.01

-$0.66

-28.85%

-$0.09

417.41%

 

 

Algonquin

Jan-25

$9.352

$8.589

8.88%

$0.76

$8.80

6.28%

$9.13

2.41%

 

 

Aeco

Jan-25

-$1.960

-$1.880

4.27%

-$0.08

-$1.70

14.97%

-$1.34

46.57%

 

 

Socal

Jan-25

$0.655

$0.760

-13.88%

-$0.11

$1.45

-54.72%

$2.91

-77.47%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/18/24

12/17/24

% Change

Change

11/19/24

% Change

12/19/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Jan-25

$0.769

$0.780

-1.44%

-$0.01

$0.79

-2.98%

$0.70

9.66%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Jan-25

$0.772

$0.780

-1.06%

-$0.01

$0.79

-2.61%

$0.70

10.62%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Jan-25

$0.223

$0.218

2.29%

$0.00

$0.20

9.88%

$0.24

-7.31%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Jan-25

$1.492

$1.480

0.83%

$0.01

$1.46

2.04%

$1.45

3.16%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Jan-25

$1.081

$1.098

-1.60%

-$0.02

$1.00

7.63%

$0.84

28.11%

 

 

Far East Propane

Jan-25

$6.123

$6.094

0.49%

$0.03

$6.11

0.14%

$5.86

4.49%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Jan-25

$6.280

$6.250

0.48%

$0.03

$6.10

2.95%

$5.41

15.98%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/18/24

12/17/24

% Change

Change

11/19/24

% Change

12/19/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Feb-25

$70.02

$69.65

0.53%

$0.37

$69.02

1.45%

$72.61

-3.57%

 

 

Brent

Feb-25

$73.39

$73.19

0.27%

$0.20

$72.99

0.55%

$77.34

-5.11%

 

 

WCS

Feb-25

-$13.50

-$13.50

-0.01%

$0.00

-$12.93

4.42%

-$14.67

-8.00%

 

 

LLS

Feb-25

$71.77

$72.43

-0.93%

-$0.66

$70.75

1.44%

$73.37

-2.18%

 

 

Mars

Feb-25

$69.12

$69.48

-0.53%

-$0.36

$67.33

2.66%

$71.71

-3.61%

 

 

Sour

Feb-25

$69.69

$70.33

-0.91%

-$0.64

$69.09

0.87%

$72.53

-3.91%

 

 

ESPO

Feb-25

$71.39

$71.19

0.28%

$0.20

$70.99

0.56%

$75.34

-5.24%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/18/24

12/17/24

% Change

Change

11/19/24

% Change

12/19/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Jan-25

$2.24

$2.23

0.54%

$0.01

$2.25

-0.31%

$2.52

-10.88%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Jan-25

$1.93

$1.94

-0.51%

-$0.01

$1.99

-2.81%

$2.02

-4.26%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Jan-25

$1.83

$1.84

-0.54%

-$0.01

$1.89

-2.96%

$1.92

-4.48%

 

 

GC Jet

Jan-25

$2.15

$2.13

0.80%

$0.02

$2.09

2.82%

$2.33

-7.69%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Jan-25

$1.58

$1.58

-0.32%

$0.00

$1.62

-2.78%

$1.55

1.42%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Jan-25

$645.46

$629.00

2.62%

$16.46

$637.20

1.30%

$695.30

-7.17%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Jan-25

$88.99

$87.46

1.76%

$1.54

$90.15

-1.29%

$94.41

-5.74%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/18/24

12/17/24

% Change

Change

11/19/24

% Change

12/19/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Feb-25

70.41%

69.16%

1.81%

1.25%

77.54%

-9.20%

52.27%

34.70%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Feb-25

88.66%

87.23%

1.64%

1.43%

94.05%

-5.73%

66.08%

34.17%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Feb-25

83.38%

79.78%

4.51%

3.60%

87.81%

-5.04%

53.18%

56.79%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Feb-25

69.63%

70.81%

-1.67%

-1.18%

73.64%

-5.45%

47.95%

45.21%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Feb-25

98.55%

102.22%

-3.59%

-3.67%

84.29%

16.92%

44.97%

119.15%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Feb-25

293.96%

289.90%

1.40%

4.06%

118.08%

148.95%

209.18%

40.53%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Feb-25

72.68%

102.53%

-29.11%

-29.85%

78.52%

-7.44%

275.40%

-73.61%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/18/24

12/17/24

% Change

Change

11/19/24

% Change

12/19/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Feb-25

EUR 41.40

EUR 42.23

-1.95%

-EUR 0.82

EUR 46.31

-10.60%

EUR 39.61

4.52%

 

 

NBP

Feb-25

GBP 102.67

GBP 104.94

-2.16%

-GBP 2.26

GBP 117.51

-12.62%

GBP 105.88

-3.02%

 

 

German Base

Feb-25

EUR 99.83

EUR 103.03

-3.10%

-EUR 3.20

EUR 117.68

-15.17%

EUR 105.67

-5.52%

 

 

UK Base

Feb-25

GBP 89.75

GBP 87.35

2.75%

GBP 2.40

GBP 100.39

-10.60%

GBP 94.19

-4.71%

 

 

French Base

Feb-25

EUR 88.91

EUR 89.62

-0.80%

-EUR 0.71

EUR 112.23

-20.78%

EUR 113.09

-21.39%

 

 

Italian Base

Feb-25

EUR 121.74

EUR 124.61

-2.30%

-EUR 2.87

EUR 132.51

-8.13%

EUR 118.73

2.53%

 

 

JKM LNG

Feb-25

$14.00

$14.49

-3.37%

-$0.49

$14.75

-5.08%

$14.67

-4.57%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/18/24

12/17/24

% Change

Change

11/19/24

% Change

12/19/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Feb-25

$41.40

$42.23

-1.95%

-$0.82

$46.31

-10.60%

$39.61

4.52%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Feb-25

$102.67

$104.94

-2.16%

-$2.26

$117.51

-12.62%

$105.88

-3.02%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Feb-25

$99.83

$103.03

-3.10%

-$3.20

$117.68

-15.17%

$105.67

-5.52%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Feb-25

$89.75

$87.35

2.75%

$2.40

$100.39

-10.60%

$94.19

-4.71%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Feb-25

$88.91

$89.62

-0.80%

-$0.71

$112.23

-20.78%

$113.09

-21.39%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Feb-25

$121.74

$124.61

-2.30%

-$2.87

$132.51

-8.13%

$118.73

2.53%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Feb-25

$14.00

$14.49

-3.37%

-$0.49

$14.75

-5.08%

$14.67

-4.57%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

12/14/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

570

153

20

37.00%

3.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

772

116

74

18.00%

11.00%

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

782

73

118

10.00%

18.00%

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

998

71

-59

8.00%

-6.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

5

-3

-1

2,168

219

124

11.00%

6.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

-1

0

1,827

281

196

18.00%

12.00%

 

 

W S Central

3

1

0

2,847

401

-90

16.00%

-3.00%

 

 

Mountain

0

0

0

1,428

185

175

15.00%

14.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

0

0

906

202

211

29.00%

30.00%

 

 

United States

1

-1

0

1,399

185

95

15.00%

7.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

12/14/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

221

-12

16

1,637

-196

0

-11.00%

0.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

204

-12

11

1,405

-203

-48

-13.00%

-3.00%

 

 

E N Central

245

-1

49

1,549

-261

-68

-14.00%

-4.00%

 

 

W N Central

264

-8

53

1,635

-338

-41

-17.00%

-2.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

107

-12

-4

664

-92

-32

-12.00%

-5.00%

 

 

E S Central

136

-18

0

814

-176

-40

-18.00%

-5.00%

 

 

W S Central

90

-22

-5

432

-166

-129

-28.00%

-23.00%

 

 

Mountain

195

-11

-1

1,394

-228

-2

-14.00%

0.00%

 

 

Pacific

119

-6

9

842

-92

70

-10.00%

9.00%

 

 

United States

167

-11

14

1,086

-178

-33

-14.00%

-3.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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