Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Dec-20-2023

Dec 20, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 9:41 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.526

$2.492

1.36%

$0.034

49,976

 

 

WTI

$75.09

$73.44

2.25%

$1.65

113,711

 

 

Brent

$80.31

$79.23

1.36%

$1.08

9,546

 

 

ULSD

$2.763

$2.717

1.70%

$0.046

6,369

 

 

RBOB

$2.209

$2.201

0.37%

$0.008

4,393

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$5.21

$5.29

-1.51%

-$0.08

Feb-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$25.21

$25.49

-1.12%

-$0.28

Feb-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$49.10

$48.75

0.71%

$0.35

Jan-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

12/15/23

623

-3

-153

12/16/22

 

 

Canada

12/15/23

185

-9

-14

12/16/22

 

 

International

Nov

978

16

68

Nov

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 12/12/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

90,153

89,675

89,830

-155

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

82,469

82,128

82,150

-22

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

398,535

375,754

388,239

-12,485

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

145,282

122,440

107,190

15,250

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

127,314

117,655

119,482

-1,827

 

 

NYM Ethanol

33,728

33,049

33,054

-5

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

138,701

138,096

138,261

-165

 

 

RBOB

342,469

317,729

322,185

-4,456

 

 

HSC Basis

707,216

701,573

698,305

3,268

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

12/14/18

 

 

 

12/8/23

12/1/23

Net Change

% Change

12/9/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

857

876

-19

-2.17%

822

4.26%

810

5.78%

 

 

Midwest

1,055

1,082

-27

-2.50%

1,002

5.29%

971

8.61%

 

 

Mountain

243

245

-2

-0.82%

186

30.65%

189

28.30%

 

 

Pacific

289

289

0

0.00%

203

42.36%

254

13.78%

 

 

South

1,219

1,228

-9

-0.73%

1,199

1.67%

1,123

8.55%

 

 

    Salt

336

334

2

0.60%

337

-0.30%

319

5.40%

 

 

    Non_Salt

883

894

-11

-1.23%

862

2.44%

804

9.83%

 

 

Total

3,664

3,719

-55

-1.48%

3,412

7.39%

3,348

9.45%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/19/23

12/18/23

% Change

Change

11/20/23

% Change

12/20/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Jan-24

$54.49

$54.08

0.76%

$0.41

$59.11

-7.81%

$104.22

-47.72%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Jan-24

$51.27

$53.14

-3.53%

-$1.88

$83.77

-38.80%

$82.83

-38.10%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Jan-24

$52.76

$58.51

-9.82%

-$5.75

$77.00

-31.49%

$110.89

-52.42%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Jan-24

$46.94

$46.57

0.79%

$0.37

$53.10

-11.61%

$92.64

-49.33%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Jan-24

$87.75

$88.69

-1.06%

-$0.94

$110.44

-20.55%

$221.00

-60.30%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Jan-24

$82.07

$91.36

-10.18%

-$9.30

$127.41

-35.59%

$141.57

-42.03%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Jan-24

$67.42

$67.47

-0.08%

-$0.05

$83.55

-19.31%

$162.44

-58.50%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/19/23

12/18/23

% Change

Change

11/20/23

% Change

12/20/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Jan-24

$2.492

$2.503

-0.44%

-$0.01

$3.05

-18.30%

$5.67

-56.08%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Jan-24

-$0.112

-$0.090

24.16%

-$0.02

$0.36

-130.94%

-$0.05

104.59%

 

 

Chicago

Jan-24

$0.314

$0.310

-1.18%

$0.00

$0.70

-55.37%

$0.83

-62.27%

 

 

Waha

Jan-24

-$0.372

-$0.264

-40.53%

-$0.11

$0.14

-360.66%

-$0.31

20.68%

 

 

Algonquin

Jan-24

$6.891

$7.352

-6.26%

-$0.46

$9.15

-24.66%

$21.34

-67.70%

 

 

Aeco

Jan-24

-$1.045

-$0.912

14.58%

-$0.13

-$0.87

19.97%

-$1.92

-45.64%

 

 

Socal

Jan-24

$1.741

$1.724

1.02%

$0.02

$3.62

-51.86%

$2.49

-30.03%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/19/23

12/18/23

% Change

Change

11/20/23

% Change

12/20/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Jan-24

$0.655

$0.652

0.39%

$0.00

$0.65

0.58%

$0.77

-14.80%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Jan-24

$0.675

$0.670

0.76%

$0.01

$0.66

2.44%

$0.78

-13.62%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Jan-24

$0.196

$0.204

-3.64%

-$0.01

$0.21

-6.52%

$0.32

-37.91%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Jan-24

$1.483

$1.483

0.00%

$0.00

$1.52

-2.59%

$1.43

3.42%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Jan-24

$0.961

$0.964

-0.31%

$0.00

$0.90

6.57%

$0.90

6.77%

 

 

Far East Propane

Jan-24

$6.736

$6.656

1.20%

$0.08

$6.92

-2.63%

$5.38

25.11%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Jan-24

$6.138

$6.052

1.43%

$0.09

$6.04

1.63%

$5.24

17.18%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/19/23

12/18/23

% Change

Change

11/20/23

% Change

12/20/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Feb-24

$73.94

$72.82

1.51%

$1.12

$77.90

-5.08%

$72.93

1.38%

 

 

Brent

Feb-24

$79.23

$77.95

1.62%

$1.28

$82.34

-3.78%

$77.19

2.64%

 

 

WCS

Feb-24

-$19.18

-$21.52

-12.20%

$2.34

-$21.67

-11.46%

-$24.73

-22.42%

 

 

LLS

Feb-24

$77.03

$76.03

1.30%

$1.00

$80.06

-3.79%

$75.00

2.70%

 

 

Mars

Feb-24

$74.49

$73.13

1.82%

$1.36

$76.71

-2.90%

$68.90

8.11%

 

 

Sour

Feb-24

$74.71

$73.46

1.67%

$1.25

$77.37

-3.43%

$69.15

8.05%

 

 

ESPO

Feb-24

$77.23

$75.95

1.66%

$1.28

$80.34

-3.87%

$72.84

6.02%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/19/23

12/18/23

% Change

Change

11/20/23

% Change

12/20/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Jan-24

$2.72

$2.69

1.45%

$0.04

$2.79

-2.15%

$2.68

1.60%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Jan-24

$2.16

$2.21

-2.48%

-$0.05

$2.20

-1.64%

$2.08

3.65%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Jan-24

$2.06

$2.12

-2.60%

-$0.06

$2.10

-1.72%

$1.98

3.83%

 

 

GC Jet

Jan-24

$2.51

$2.48

0.93%

$0.02

$2.60

-3.62%

$2.43

3.17%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Jan-24

$1.59

$1.61

-1.43%

-$0.02

$1.74

-8.79%

$2.04

-22.24%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Jan-24

$744.83

$737.16

1.04%

$7.67

$760.16

-2.02%

$712.96

4.47%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Jan-24

$101.83

$102.54

-0.69%

-$0.71

$102.73

-0.87%

$94.86

7.35%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/19/23

12/18/23

% Change

Change

11/20/23

% Change

12/20/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Feb-24

77.03%

75.07%

2.61%

1.96%

79.56%

-3.18%

73.95%

4.16%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Feb-24

104.83%

113.33%

-7.50%

-8.50%

98.46%

6.47%

98.20%

6.75%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Feb-24

90.49%

72.53%

24.76%

17.96%

79.52%

13.80%

88.60%

2.13%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Feb-24

80.90%

83.70%

-3.35%

-2.80%

76.26%

6.08%

69.25%

16.82%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Feb-24

85.23%

83.33%

2.28%

1.90%

81.23%

4.92%

70.11%

21.57%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Feb-24

66.28%

45.60%

45.35%

20.68%

67.09%

-1.21%

61.02%

8.62%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Feb-24

222.33%

128.17%

73.46%

94.16%

138.54%

60.48%

88.87%

150.17%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/19/23

12/18/23

% Change

Change

11/20/23

% Change

12/20/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Feb-24

EUR 33.85

EUR 35.60

-4.89%

-EUR 1.74

EUR 47.33

-28.47%

EUR 109.62

-69.12%

 

 

NBP

Feb-24

GBP 84.32

GBP 89.19

-5.46%

-GBP 4.87

GBP 123.93

-31.96%

GBP 285.88

-70.50%

 

 

German Base

Feb-24

EUR 85.53

EUR 90.64

-5.64%

-EUR 5.11

EUR 119.82

-28.62%

EUR 339.36

-74.80%

 

 

UK Base

Feb-24

GBP 79.79

GBP 87.78

-9.10%

-GBP 7.99

GBP 115.67

-31.01%

GBP 266.34

-70.04%

 

 

French Base

Feb-24

EUR 87.53

EUR 92.99

-5.87%

-EUR 5.46

EUR 130.43

-32.89%

EUR 477.36

-81.66%

 

 

Italian Base

Feb-24

EUR 102.29

EUR 110.20

-7.17%

-EUR 7.90

EUR 139.83

-26.85%

EUR 329.62

-68.97%

 

 

JKM LNG

Feb-24

$11.40

$16.00

-28.74%

-$4.60

$17.44

-34.60%

$32.65

-65.07%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/19/23

12/18/23

% Change

Change

11/20/23

% Change

12/20/22

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Feb-24

$33.85

$35.60

-4.89%

-$1.74

$47.33

-28.47%

$109.62

-69.12%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Feb-24

$84.32

$89.19

-5.46%

-$4.87

$123.93

-31.96%

$285.88

-70.50%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Feb-24

$85.53

$90.64

-5.64%

-$5.11

$119.82

-28.62%

$339.36

-74.80%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Feb-24

$79.79

$87.78

-9.10%

-$7.99

$115.67

-31.01%

$266.34

-70.04%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Feb-24

$87.53

$92.99

-5.87%

-$5.46

$130.43

-32.89%

$477.36

-81.66%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Feb-24

$102.29

$110.20

-7.17%

-$7.90

$139.83

-26.85%

$329.62

-68.97%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Feb-24

$11.40

$16.00

-28.74%

-$4.60

$17.44

-34.60%

$32.65

-65.07%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

12/16/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

551

134

-135

32.00%

-20.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

698

42

-280

6.00%

-29.00%

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

664

-45

-185

-6.00%

-22.00%

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

1,057

130

-34

14.00%

-3.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

6

-2

-4

2,045

95

-154

5.00%

-7.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

-1

0

1,632

86

-93

6.00%

-5.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

-2

-9

2,936

491

14

20.00%

0.00%

 

 

Mountain

0

0

0

1,253

10

-153

1.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

0

0

695

-9

-281

-1.00%

-29.00%

 

 

United States

1

0

-2

1,304

91

-165

8.00%

-11.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

12/16/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

194

-44

-53

1,690

-213

35

-11.00%

2.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

195

-25

-36

1,506

-167

-56

-10.00%

-4.00%

 

 

E N Central

209

-42

3

1,669

-215

-93

-11.00%

-5.00%

 

 

W N Central

216

-61

-12

1,730

-323

-214

-16.00%

-11.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

116

-6

7

728

-64

-39

-8.00%

-5.00%

 

 

E S Central

144

-13

37

890

-146

-75

-14.00%

-8.00%

 

 

W S Central

106

-8

35

587

-45

-13

-7.00%

-2.00%

 

 

Mountain

189

-19

-43

1,446

-236

-219

-14.00%

-13.00%

 

 

Pacific

98

-29

-60

796

-175

-184

-18.00%

-19.00%

 

 

United States

155

-26

-13

1,158

-159

-92

-12.00%

-7.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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