Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Dec-21-2023

Dec 21, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 7:58 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.482

$2.447

1.43%

$0.035

12,024

 

 

WTI

$72.98

$74.22

-1.67%

-$1.24

86,271

 

 

Brent

$78.34

$79.70

-1.71%

-$1.36

7,100

 

 

ULSD

$2.672

$2.708

-1.35%

-$0.036

1,622

 

 

RBOB

$2.146

$2.201

-2.50%

-$0.055

1,848

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$5.37

$5.48

-2.01%

-$0.11

Feb-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$24.29

$25.16

-3.46%

-$0.87

Feb-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$47.28

$49.26

-4.01%

-$1.97

Jan-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

12/15/23

623

-3

-153

12/16/22

 

 

Canada

12/15/23

185

-9

-14

12/16/22

 

 

International

Nov

978

16

68

Nov

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 12/12/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

90,153

89,675

89,830

-155

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

82,469

82,128

82,150

-22

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

398,535

375,754

388,239

-12,485

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

145,282

122,440

107,190

15,250

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

127,314

117,655

119,482

-1,827

 

 

NYM Ethanol

33,728

33,049

33,054

-5

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

138,701

138,096

138,261

-165

 

 

RBOB

342,469

317,729

322,185

-4,456

 

 

HSC Basis

707,216

701,573

698,305

3,268

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

12/14/18

 

 

 

12/8/23

12/1/23

Net Change

% Change

12/9/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

857

876

-19

-2.17%

822

4.26%

810

5.78%

 

 

Midwest

1,055

1,082

-27

-2.50%

1,002

5.29%

971

8.61%

 

 

Mountain

243

245

-2

-0.82%

186

30.65%

189

28.30%

 

 

Pacific

289

289

0

0.00%

203

42.36%

254

13.78%

 

 

South

1,219

1,228

-9

-0.73%

1,199

1.67%

1,123

8.55%

 

 

    Salt

336

334

2

0.60%

337

-0.30%

319

5.40%

 

 

    Non_Salt

883

894

-11

-1.23%

862

2.44%

804

9.83%

 

 

Total

3,664

3,719

-55

-1.48%

3,412

7.39%

3,348

9.45%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/20/23

12/19/23

% Change

Change

11/21/23

% Change

12/21/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Jan-24

$52.59

$54.49

-3.50%

-$1.91

$57.24

-8.14%

$103.06

-48.98%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Jan-24

$51.66

$51.27

0.76%

$0.39

$85.00

-39.22%

$81.89

-36.91%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Jan-24

$53.79

$52.76

1.95%

$1.03

$73.10

-26.42%

$125.61

-57.18%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Jan-24

$45.78

$46.94

-2.47%

-$1.16

$51.30

-10.77%

$91.03

-49.71%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Jan-24

$91.85

$87.75

4.68%

$4.11

$105.65

-13.06%

$225.27

-59.22%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Jan-24

$85.22

$82.07

3.84%

$3.15

$125.76

-32.24%

$159.96

-46.73%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Jan-24

$69.51

$67.42

3.10%

$2.09

$80.32

-13.46%

$164.31

-57.70%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/20/23

12/19/23

% Change

Change

11/21/23

% Change

12/21/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Jan-24

$2.447

$2.492

-1.81%

-$0.05

$2.99

-18.24%

$5.62

-56.49%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Jan-24

-$0.077

-$0.112

-31.12%

$0.03

$0.36

-121.38%

-$0.01

617.76%

 

 

Chicago

Jan-24

$0.267

$0.314

17.54%

-$0.05

$0.66

-59.61%

$0.85

-68.66%

 

 

Waha

Jan-24

-$0.337

-$0.372

-9.28%

$0.03

$0.09

-491.64%

-$0.27

25.63%

 

 

Algonquin

Jan-24

$7.237

$6.891

5.02%

$0.35

$9.50

-23.82%

$22.06

-67.19%

 

 

Aeco

Jan-24

-$0.926

-$1.045

-11.38%

$0.12

-$0.94

-1.92%

-$1.75

-47.24%

 

 

Socal

Jan-24

$1.495

$1.741

-14.16%

-$0.25

$3.35

-55.32%

$2.59

-42.24%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/20/23

12/19/23

% Change

Change

11/21/23

% Change

12/21/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Jan-24

$0.672

$0.655

2.65%

$0.02

$0.64

4.63%

$0.79

-14.87%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Jan-24

$0.677

$0.675

0.40%

$0.00

$0.64

5.42%

$0.79

-14.23%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Jan-24

$0.193

$0.196

-1.94%

$0.00

$0.21

-6.77%

$0.31

-37.78%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Jan-24

$1.485

$1.483

0.16%

$0.00

$1.51

-1.50%

$1.49

-0.01%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Jan-24

$0.981

$0.961

2.02%

$0.02

$0.88

11.66%

$0.92

6.22%

 

 

Far East Propane

Jan-24

$6.760

$6.736

0.35%

$0.02

$6.80

-0.66%

$5.31

27.31%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Jan-24

$6.219

$6.138

1.32%

$0.08

$5.95

4.47%

$4.92

26.42%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/20/23

12/19/23

% Change

Change

11/21/23

% Change

12/21/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Feb-24

$74.22

$73.94

0.38%

$0.28

$77.92

-4.75%

$73.94

0.38%

 

 

Brent

Feb-24

$79.70

$79.23

0.59%

$0.47

$82.48

-3.37%

$78.38

1.68%

 

 

WCS

Feb-24

-$18.07

-$19.18

-6.15%

$1.11

-$22.27

-18.85%

-$24.20

-25.33%

 

 

LLS

Feb-24

$77.00

$77.03

-0.04%

-$0.03

$80.34

-4.16%

$75.83

1.54%

 

 

Mars

Feb-24

$74.36

$74.49

-0.18%

-$0.13

$76.87

-3.26%

$69.90

6.37%

 

 

Sour

Feb-24

$74.65

$74.71

-0.09%

-$0.07

$77.75

-3.99%

$70.74

5.53%

 

 

ESPO

Feb-24

$77.70

$77.23

0.60%

$0.47

$80.48

-3.45%

$73.70

5.43%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/20/23

12/19/23

% Change

Change

11/21/23

% Change

12/21/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Jan-24

$2.70

$2.72

-1.06%

-$0.03

$2.85

-5.54%

$2.72

-1.03%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Jan-24

$2.20

$2.16

1.85%

$0.04

$2.18

0.87%

$2.14

3.00%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Jan-24

$2.10

$2.06

1.94%

$0.04

$2.08

0.91%

$2.04

3.14%

 

 

GC Jet

Jan-24

$2.55

$2.51

1.80%

$0.04

$2.61

-2.30%

$2.46

3.70%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Jan-24

$1.55

$1.59

-2.02%

-$0.03

$1.74

-10.37%

$2.06

-24.44%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Jan-24

$749.02

$744.83

0.56%

$4.18

$770.79

-2.83%

$732.93

2.19%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Jan-24

$104.20

$101.83

2.32%

$2.37

$105.85

-1.55%

$97.35

7.04%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/20/23

12/19/23

% Change

Change

11/21/23

% Change

12/21/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Feb-24

82.07%

77.03%

6.54%

5.04%

79.39%

3.38%

67.18%

22.16%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Feb-24

110.78%

104.83%

5.68%

5.95%

93.84%

18.05%

94.65%

17.04%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Feb-24

88.84%

90.49%

-1.82%

-1.65%

81.47%

9.05%

75.97%

16.94%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Feb-24

84.61%

80.90%

4.59%

3.71%

77.50%

9.17%

62.89%

34.54%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Feb-24

85.18%

85.23%

-0.06%

-0.05%

79.53%

7.10%

70.46%

20.89%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Feb-24

77.36%

66.28%

16.72%

11.08%

71.62%

8.01%

61.25%

26.30%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Feb-24

185.87%

222.33%

-16.40%

-36.46%

153.54%

21.06%

89.55%

107.56%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/20/23

12/19/23

% Change

Change

11/21/23

% Change

12/21/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Feb-24

EUR 34.23

EUR 33.85

1.12%

EUR 0.38

EUR 45.29

-24.42%

EUR 101.91

-66.41%

 

 

NBP

Feb-24

GBP 85.09

GBP 84.32

0.91%

GBP 0.77

GBP 118.30

-28.07%

GBP 273.48

-68.89%

 

 

German Base

Feb-24

EUR 89.96

EUR 85.53

5.18%

EUR 4.43

EUR 112.10

-19.75%

EUR 325.93

-72.40%

 

 

UK Base

Feb-24

GBP 85.42

GBP 79.79

7.05%

GBP 5.63

GBP 113.50

-24.74%

GBP 249.48

-65.76%

 

 

French Base

Feb-24

EUR 88.79

EUR 87.53

1.45%

EUR 1.26

EUR 121.96

-27.20%

EUR 459.75

-80.69%

 

 

Italian Base

Feb-24

EUR 108.21

EUR 102.29

5.79%

EUR 5.92

EUR 136.15

-20.52%

EUR 308.94

-64.97%

 

 

JKM LNG

Feb-24

$11.97

$11.40

5.00%

$0.57

$16.41

-27.03%

$29.53

-59.46%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/20/23

12/19/23

% Change

Change

11/21/23

% Change

12/21/22

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Feb-24

$34.23

$33.85

1.12%

$0.38

$45.29

-24.42%

$101.91

-66.41%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Feb-24

$85.09

$84.32

0.91%

$0.77

$118.30

-28.07%

$273.48

-68.89%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Feb-24

$89.96

$85.53

5.18%

$4.43

$112.10

-19.75%

$325.93

-72.40%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Feb-24

$85.42

$79.79

7.05%

$5.63

$113.50

-24.74%

$249.48

-65.76%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Feb-24

$88.79

$87.53

1.45%

$1.26

$121.96

-27.20%

$459.75

-80.69%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Feb-24

$108.21

$102.29

5.79%

$5.92

$136.15

-20.52%

$308.94

-64.97%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Feb-24

$11.97

$11.40

5.00%

$0.57

$16.41

-27.03%

$29.53

-59.46%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

12/16/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

551

134

-135

32.00%

-20.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

698

42

-280

6.00%

-29.00%

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

664

-45

-185

-6.00%

-22.00%

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

1,057

130

-34

14.00%

-3.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

6

-2

-4

2,045

95

-154

5.00%

-7.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

-1

0

1,632

86

-93

6.00%

-5.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

-2

-9

2,936

491

14

20.00%

0.00%

 

 

Mountain

0

0

0

1,253

10

-153

1.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

0

0

695

-9

-281

-1.00%

-29.00%

 

 

United States

1

0

-2

1,304

91

-165

8.00%

-11.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

12/16/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

194

-44

-53

1,690

-213

35

-11.00%

2.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

195

-25

-36

1,506

-167

-56

-10.00%

-4.00%

 

 

E N Central

209

-42

3

1,669

-215

-93

-11.00%

-5.00%

 

 

W N Central

216

-61

-12

1,730

-323

-214

-16.00%

-11.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

116

-6

7

728

-64

-39

-8.00%

-5.00%

 

 

E S Central

144

-13

37

890

-146

-75

-14.00%

-8.00%

 

 

W S Central

106

-8

35

587

-45

-13

-7.00%

-2.00%

 

 

Mountain

189

-19

-43

1,446

-236

-219

-14.00%

-13.00%

 

 

Pacific

98

-29

-60

796

-175

-184

-18.00%

-19.00%

 

 

United States

155

-26

-13

1,158

-159

-92

-12.00%

-7.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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